David-LI Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Someone please explain what is this pacific jet and how it affects our winter? Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Are we talking about the possible storm in LaLa land around the 22nd? What about the one this Monday night and Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other. A +PNA ridge doesn’t help you with a very strong PAC jet crashing into it, it gets blown apart as fast as it forms, see last winter. If that’s going to be the case again, the Atlantic and arctic sides need to cooperate and compensate for what’s happening on the Pacific side with very strong blocks (west-based -NAO Greenland block and -AO) or you’re dead in the water again since our weather comes in from the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks This might be the 1st post ever that I agree with you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, David-LI said: Someone please explain what is this pacific jet and how it affects our winter? Thanks This one is rain except for new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: My concern is the the fast Pacific flow pushes the ridge axis too far east for a decent storm track. While the day 8-10 means have come in colder than a few days ago, that ridge could eventually shift back over the area day 11-15. We really need extreme Atlantic blocking to counter an unfavorable Pacific. I hate to bring it up but didn't we have one year in the 90s where we had great blocking but mostly rain events due to pack? Is this year similar. Remember benchmark tracks and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Through December 12, seasonal snowfall amounts to date for select cities are: Albany: 26.8", 7.0" above normal Allentown: 1.6", 0.5" below normal Baltimore: 0.2", 1.1" below normal Binghamton: 19.8", 7.4" above normal Boston: 10.1", 6.5" above normal Burlington: 17.8", 7.0" above normal Caribou: 33.4", 13.9" above normal Harrisburg: 0.2", 1.9"below normal Islip: 3.9", 2.2" above normal New York City: 1.8", 0.4" above normal Newark: 3.2", 1.6" above normal Philadelphia: 0.1", 1.0" below normal Portland: 10.5", 5.1" above normal Providence: 7.3", 3.3" above normal Richmond: 1.0", 0.2" above normal Scranton: 7.0", 2.1" above normal Washington, DC: 0.3", 0.9" below normal Over the next two weeks, much of the region could see additional snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable. The SOI was -0.99 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.239. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 21. However, warming could commence late in the period at 2 mb and above. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the third week of December on the EPS. On December 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.926 (RMM). The December 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.774. There continues to remain a degree of uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pattern and overall outcome for the closing week of December. So far, the colder idea has more often than not prevailed since late autumn. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City. In addition, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will reach 50" or more precipitation for 2019. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate to bring it up but didn't we have one year in the 90s where we had great blocking but mostly rain events due to pack? Is this year similar. Remember benchmark tracks and rain. That was 97/98. Some pretty strong nor’easters that winter that we’re all rain. The key that winter was a super nino. I’m a really big fan of pattern recognition and I fully expect some winter cancel calls as we head past the new year. Mid January through mid February has always been my thoughts for the sweet spot. Hard to go against peak snow climo for a multitude of reasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I remember that winter Terrible winter of rain Several storms started as snow, but always changed over Mr G kept saying “this one is wet not white” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I remember that winter Terrible winter of rain Several storms started as snow, but always changed over Mr G kept saying “this one is wet not white” After 95-96, every winter after that was a let down until 00-01. Six long years of waiting for a snowy winter. We had some big snows especially where I was in Central MA in November 96, April 97, Dec 97, but that was about it. Far and few between. 00-01 had the white gorilla roaring again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Another soaker on the way as this raging Pacific Jet pattern continues. Waterways are rather full around here. Maybe some minor hydro issues with another couple inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Fantasy range storm is a southern slider on the 0z GFS. Mid range is a rainout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Fantasy range storm is a southern slider on the 0z GFS. Mid range is a rainout. 210 hr is not fantasy by any stretch of the imagination. This is a real threat. Important panels begin as early as 168 hr out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Enigma said: 210 hr is not fantasy by any stretch of the imagination. This is a real threat. Important panels begin as early as 168 hr out. I'm not saying there isn't a storm signal, that's obvious, but it's fantasy land to me. Reality won't be remotely close to what's modeled this far out. The next run won't probably won't be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 @Enigma why are you confused? Even your "important" panels are days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 0z ECM flips the long range cold signal off again, madness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 38degs., or about 1deg. AN Month to date is -2.7[37.7]. Should be near -1.2[37.8] by the 21st. 38* here at 6am. 39* at 7am. 42* at 8am. 46* at 9am. 50* by Noon. 51* at 1pm, drizzle. 52* at 9pm, drizzle-- heavy rain during the afternoon. 54* at 10pm., rain Indeed the EURO has added back 27 degrees to the 22nd. Upstate NY increased by 50 degrees between runs. They could at least inform us that the EURO swallowed a bad banana. Otherwise major models are nearly snowless and clueless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: I'm not saying there isn't a storm signal, that's obvious, but it's fantasy land to me. Reality won't be remotely close to what's modeled this far out. The next run won't probably won't be close. And its back on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 06Z Euro looks like a nice front-end thump Monday evening. Nearly 0.2" liquid equivalent and 700, 850, 925 and sfc temps are at/below freezing for all of us through 00Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 13 hours ago, bluewave said: Another soaker on the way as this raging Pacific Jet pattern continues. Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month. Yeah, the extreme Pacific Jet pattern also causes these big model flips in the longer range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month. There's a lot of convection with this system over the Southeast today that will be contributing to this. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests we could see a thunderstorm in the region tomorrow afternoon as the 500mb jet max punches in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 40 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 06Z Euro looks like a nice front-end thump Monday evening. Nearly 0.2" liquid equivalent and 700, 850, 925 and sfc temps are at/below freezing for all of us through 00Z. Just about to post this Nam also has a little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 06Z Euro looks like a nice front-end thump Monday evening. Nearly 0.2" liquid equivalent and 700, 850, 925 and sfc temps are at/below freezing for all of us through 00Z. Got a graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Whatever falls as snow will melt pretty quickly. The models have 50’s and rain at the end of the storm on Tuesday. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/13/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20 CLIMO X/N 50| 49 57| 42 49| 30 38| 34 51| 28 35| 22 30| 25 37 30 42 Yesterday afternoon my projected high for Tuesday was 32, this morning it's 45. That's some really bad overnight trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yesterday afternoon my projected high for Tuesday was 32, this morning it's 45. That's some really bad overnight trends. Models weakened the high pressure at the onset of the storm over New England from a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The latest guidance is indicating that much of the region will receive a general 1.00"-2.00" precipitation with locally higher amounts (especially in eastern New England) of 2.50". As a result, New York City will very likely reach 50" precipitation for the second consecutive year. Allentown will likely reach 60" precipitation for a record-breaking second consecutive year. After 1970, New York City has moved into an abruptly wetter climate regime. During the 1869-1970 period, New York City averaged 42.89" annual precipitation with a return time of 50.00" or more precipitation of every 8.5 years. 1971-2018 has had average annual precipitation of 50.74" (more than 1 standard deviation above the 1869-1970 average). The return time for years with 50.00" or more precipitation has fallen sharply to 2.3 years (2.2 should 2019 reach 50.00"). Below is a table for year-to-date precipitation, how 2019 currently ranks among the wettest years on record, and rankings for various precipitation scenarios: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 44 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Got a graphic? can't share our internal graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z NAM came in even wetter. Looks like the heaviest downpours will be tonight into early Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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