bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL Hahah...looks like the Euro is playing to its day 8-10 OP too amped up bias with TPV’s near the Northeast. But the pattern does look cold even if the TPV ends up a little further north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Pre-Xmas storm has my interest more than anything right now, but my worry is that we tearfully watch it bomb out over the Flemish Cap. If we somehow can toss some sand in the gears of that PAC jet, things could get interesting. We deserve it after enduring last year’s garbage pattern. Got my fingers crossed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 So much time for models to make sense 10 days from now and a lot of details to sort out. If we can establish fresh arctic air first, half the battle is won. Just need the precip. Even if we don't get a KU, a clipper snow event with 2-4 inches in arctic air would be wonderful for the Christmas mood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Juno redux and march 2001 We are owed a reverse March 2001. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: So much time for models to make sense 10 days from now and a lot of details to sort out. If we can establish fresh arctic air first, half the battle is won. Just need the precip. Even if we don't get a KU, a clipper snow event with 2-4 inches in arctic air would be wonderful for the Christmas mood. Yeah even a couple nickel and dime events with below normal temps would be a great break from the Easter-in December weather we've had so many times this decade.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 34 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL So the pack it in it's going to be a mild start to the holiday week the ECM has been showing now spits out near record cold. What is wrong with guidance these days these flips are gargantuan? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: So the pack it in it's going to be a mild start to the holiday week the ECM has been showing now spits out near record cold. What is wrong with guidance these days these flips are gargantuan? Who knows, a few days from now, it may show us needing to worry about heat stroke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: So the pack it in it's going to be a mild start to the holiday week the ECM has been showing now spits out near record cold. What is wrong with guidance these days these flips are gargantuan? The East Asian Jet extension and fast flow into the West Coast is probably too much for the models to correctly handle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 People are really starting to talk about the 12/21-23 period for a major snowstorm. The setup mostly looks great but the ridge axis positioning is definitely concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 That euro temp map says "apparent temperature" so that's wind chill I would think...Still actual temps are still extremely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, doncat said: That euro temp map says "apparent temperature" so that's wind chill I would think...Still actual temps are still extremely cold. A little nippy in fantasy land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 the last time a major snowstorm came on Dec. 21-22 was back in 1959...59 had a white Christmas for the first time in 11 years... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 42 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: People are really starting to talk about the 12/21-23 period for a major snowstorm. The setup mostly looks great but the ridge axis positioning is definitely concerning. The EPS has a low coming through the Great Lakes with cold high pressure behind it. Ridge axis would be too far east for a major storm. May be tough to back that ridge far enough west with such a fast Pacific Jet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has a low coming through the Great Lakes with cold high pressure behind it. Ridge axis would be too far east for a major storm. May be tough to back that ridge far enough west with such a fast Pacific Jet. Cautious expectations as always but we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Interesting move from yesterday to today on the EPS. Yesterday, the TPV lobe in Canada was split with the dominant piece amplifying the AK vortex. Today, it's headed for SE Canada and 50/50 bound thereafter. Plus more arctic ridging yet again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 FLASH: EURO Suffers Nervous Breakdown------sends T down 38 degrees overnight Dec. 21 into Dec. 22 44*>>>>>>06*, but forgets about the snow. Maybe board should shift focus to the T potential, rather the Snow possibilities. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Juno redux and march 2001 Nice Rain Storm on the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, SHELEG said: Nice Rain Storm on the 18Z Yep at least there is a storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yep at least there is a storm signal The changes between runs could not be more extreme. HP over Upper MW on 12z. HP moving off the EC on 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Timing of rain tomorrow for Long Island? Hoping it will hold off until late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Nice cold day today 34/23 temp split...Already back down to 28°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Another soaker on the way as this raging Pacific Jet pattern continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another soaker on the way as this raging Pacific Jet pattern continues. Hoping we can switch from soakers to paste jobs in the coming few weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z gefs is way better than the op for the 22nd storm. Nice storm signal. Euro weeklies suck but they have alot of snow coming up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Hoping we can switch from soakers to paste jobs in the coming few weeks It doesn’t seem like the Pacific is in a hurry to let that happen. Last few runs shifted warmer and more amplified for the second storm early next week. The models seem to be playing catch up with the very fast Pacific flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It doesn’t seem like the Pacific is in a hurry to let that happen. Last few runs shifted warmer and more amplified for the second storm early next week. The models seem to be playing catch up with the very fast Pacific flow. EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other. My concern is the the fast Pacific flow pushes the ridge axis too far east for a decent storm track. While the day 8-10 means have come in colder than a few days ago, that ridge could eventually shift back over the area day 11-15. We really need extreme Atlantic blocking to counter an unfavorable Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I cant believe we skipped over 2 storms to discuss something 12 days from now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: My concern is the the fast Pacific flow pushes the ridge axis too far east for a decent storm track. While the day 8-10 means have come in colder than a few days ago, that ridge could eventually shift back over the area day 11-15. We really need extreme Atlantic blocking to counter an unfavorable Pacific. Yep. That was the problem last winter. Everytime a +PNA ridge formed, the raging fast PAC jet slammed into it and knocked it right down. When the PAC side sucks, in the absence of a very strong Atlantic/west-based -NAO “Greenland block” (and you’d also want a strong arctic -AO/-NAM along with it as well), the PAC rules the day, since our weather moves west to east. The PAC will always overrule the Atlantic and arctic in the absence of a very strong block/blocks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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