December 2019

[White Gorilla]

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

fantasy land at day 10.  (I'd say  that even if it showed the next ice age)

Forecasts days out are so fickle and constantly changing, so yeah, best we not take anything seriously at that range, cold or warm. 

[Neblizzard]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Here we go again. The GFS is the only model that shows a cutter and even that scenario would still cause an extended period of frozen precip north and west of NYC before changeover to rain. Every other model shows a colder solution right now. 

Yes it is the only model showing this scenario.  Pay no attention to snowman19s posts. He’s like a parrot every winter. 

[Ericjcrash]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Root for the 2nd storm to act more like a weak SWFE rather than a more amplified system. The weekend storm becomes a strong 50/50 low  So we need the 2nd system to stay flat  enough so cold high pressure holds on over New England. Really amped up systems will be too warm in this pattern. 
 

Today's 12z Euro was definitely more of what we want to see. Much weaker wave which we often over perform holding on to cold air. 

[Eduardo]

Decent trends today, but might a cutter next week tug that TPV toward the 50/50 position which, combined with the modeled west-based -NAO, might set the table for a more interesting Xmas week?

 

Not looking to be invidious, but what do we think of the "sacrificial lamb" perspective?

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

Decent trends today, but might a cutter next week tug that TPV toward the 50/50 position which, combined with the modeled west-based -NAO, might set the table for a more interesting Xmas week?

 

Not looking to be invidious, but what do we think of the "sacrificial lamb" perspective?

Let Saturdays system be lamb chop.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Today's 12z Euro was definitely more of what we want to see. Much weaker wave which we often over perform holding on to cold air. 

Weak SWFE’s  have been the best December snowfall performers in NYC since 2011. So it’s important for that wave to come out less amplified  to make it interesting for NYC and the coast. We may not have a good handle on the actual amplitude for several more days.

[White Gorilla]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Weak SWFE’s  have been the best December snowfall performers in NYC since 2011. So it’s important for that wave to come out less amplified  to make it interesting for NYC and the coast. We may not have a good handle on the actual amplitude for several more days.

I would conjecture that once the system on Saturday clears and its eventual influence on the pattern becomes clearer, the models will have better consensus. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Let Saturdays system be lamb chop.

We have to hope it's a really strong cutter

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

I would conjecture that once the system on Saturday clears and its eventual influence on the pattern becomes clearer, the models will have better consensus. 

Yeah, that’s usually the case. Models really struggling with where to put the ridges and troughs near the end of the 6-10 day forecast. Looks like each model handles the fast Pacific flow slightly differently. This period is right after the 2nd storm.

.

[MJO812]

Christmas storm please

[donsutherland1]

Some quick thoughts as I am still out of town:

1. Over the next 10 days, variability will remain the theme with alternating periods of warmth and cold. No exceptional cold appears likely.

2. Precipitation should remain above average with New York City again reaching 50" annual precipitation and Allentown perhaps reaching 60" for a record second consecutive year.

3. The AO looks to remain predominantly positive through the next 10-14 days with perhaps a 5-7-day dip near the December 20 +/- a few days.

4. During this period, the potential for at least some snowfall exists. 

5. The EPS suggests that there is a risk that the coldest air could shift to the other side of the Northern Hemisphere after Day 10. That would again mitigate the risk of Arctic outbreaks. 

By mid-month, most of the U.S. except for New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic could have warm monthly anomalies. New York City could have a modest cold anomaly despite a much colder than normal start to the month. How the month finishes will depend on the progression of the MJO within the context of a fading positive Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly, the SOI, and the teleconnections. 

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How was your white rain this morning? Lol

My kids loved the 2 hour delay and it looked like a post card outside ,,,still does

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

My kids loved the 2 hour delay and it looked like a post card outside ,,,still does

Looked good on my car.....was gone before lunch. But I got to use the snow brush.....around an inch on the car. Nothing on the streets....

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -2.3[38.3].      Should be about -0.1[39.1] by the 20th.

28* here at 6am.       29* by 9am.       30* at 10am.     33* by Noon.    37* by 2pm.

Our three main models are 1" to 4" of Snow on the 17th/18th, with the EURO the coldest in the days after the system.        Probably just going to be another in a string of mixed up events, leaving nothing white behind.     

[the_other_guy]

There was a poster a few weeks back that said something to the effect “it is a coldish pattern, but it will just lead to cutters

 

 Very good call sir! sorry I cant directly attribute it to you!

[EasternLI]

AO heading in the right direction. 

[EasternLI]

 

[ForestHillWx]

16 this morning. Wood stove getting cranked up. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

AO heading in the right direction. 

 

[White Gorilla]

41 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

AO heading in the right direction. 

Fun and interesting times ahead. 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Fun and interesting times ahead. 

I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -2.3[38.3].      Should be about -0.1[39.1] by the 20th.

28* here at 8am.

Our three main models are 1" to 4" of Snow on the 17th/18th, with the EURO the coldest in the days after the system.        Probably just going to be another in a string of mixed up events, leaving nothing white behind.     

I would take another 1 to 3 inch mess in a heartbeat.

The year of being nickled. Adds up though!

[SnoSki14]

If blocking does trend stronger than next week's system will act more like a SWFE.

GFS trending in that direction now. The MJO failing to enter warmer phases has helped in that regard.

However it won't take much for the system to cut and that's what I still favor atm.

[purduewx80]

59 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

EPS is still trending more negative next week with the NAO, while the GEFS and GEPS are ~neutral. The 06Z EPS shows a low tracking from the Delmarva to the benchmark.

As long as we don't see a reversal of these EPS trends over the next ~48h, I think a front-end thump to ice pellets scenario is on the table for the city proper early next week. Far northern and western parts of the metro could be in for a sizeable snow as well.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

53 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.

Agreed, the fact that December isn’t +5 is a great sign for later on. I’ll admit I I thought a very warm December was a lock. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

 

EPS is still trending more negative next week with the NAO, while the GEFS and GEPS are ~neutral. The 06Z EPS shows a low tracking from the Delmarva to the benchmark.

As long as we don't see a reversal of these EPS trends over the next ~48h, I think a front-end thump to ice pellets scenario is on the table for the city proper early next week. Far northern and western parts of the metro could be in for a sizeable snow as well.

Yeah, a weak and well timed SWFE type storm would be the best bet. I am not sure if that Euro NAO chart you posted uses the same methodology as the official CPC data we rely on. I know several weather model vendors that have their own custom teleconnection indices that vary from the CPC. So non CPC sources can have a big difference from those GEFS forecasts due to calculation methodology alone.

[Santa Claus]

Mount Holly mentions isolated FRZ potential tomorrow morning for the colder parts of the board--heads up.  And then a rain/wind/rain sandwich from tomorrow through the middle of next week.  I wonder how ground saturation will start to impact area temperatures.  I guess it would moderate heating and cooling but I've never really thought about it before, or if it might affect sensible weather.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a weak and well timed SWFE type storm would be the best bet. I am not sure if that Euro NAO chart you posted uses the same methodology as the official CPC data we rely on. I know several weather model vendors that have their own custom teleconnection indices that vary from the CPC. So non CPC sources can have a big difference from those GEFS forecasts due to calculation methodology alone.

This one has to be weak because the high positioning and area which the storm approaches from aren’t ideal for a significant from end snow here outside of NW areas   

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -2.3[38.3].      Should be about -0.1[39.1] by the 20th.

28* here at 6am.       29* by 9am.

Our three main models are 1" to 4" of Snow on the 17th/18th, with the EURO the coldest in the days after the system.        Probably just going to be another in a string of mixed up events, leaving nothing white behind.     

I just want to clarify the last two events have left snow behind for a large chunk of the area

 

 

[binbisso]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.

Me too!. The one feature that's been consistent since summer is the 50/50 Low. No way we're we're torching if that continues. just a continuation of cold high pressure to our North which as we get later in the season even with an unfavorable Pacific and cutters we will still be dealing with a lot of mixed events and eventually Storm Track should start shifting   South. With the upcoming system this Tuesday that's three systems to track the first 17 days of December and most areas 20 or so miles north and west of New York City are probably above-average snowfall so far. I'll take this any December