December 2019

[bluewave]

The dominant storm track continues to be cutter and hugger. All our major storms this month tracked through the Great Lakes or right across the area. The next 2 storms look to take the same type of track. It will be interesting to see if we can get the benchmark rapidly deepening storm track more active in JFM.
 

Dec 1-10

 

Next 2 storms

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The dominant storm track continues to be cutter and hugger. All our major storms this month tracked through the Great Lakes or right across the area. The next 2 storms look to take the same type of track. It will be interesting to see if we can get the benchmark storm track more active in JFM.
 

Dec 1-10

 

Next 2 storms

 

 

 

 

Thanks!

I hope we get a least a minor snowfall before the changeover for next week. Euro shows a few inches. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

I hope we get a least a minor snowfall before the changeover for next week. Euro shows a few inches. 

That would be nice. We are going to need a strong and sustained -NAO drop at some point this winter to get a more active benchmark rapidly deepening storm track. These transient wave breaks can only do so much with the very active Pacific split flow pattern. We tend to do better with MJO related -NAO drops and start warming events. 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Snow cover has been impressive around here, I need to run some numbers later to see how much above average I am so far. 

13.5" season total which puts me 9.1" above average to date for the season here.  Assuming no more snowfall (doubtful) I'll remain above average until 1/8/20 or so.  

[purduewx80]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That would be nice. We are going to need a strong and sustained -NAO drop at some point this winter to get a more active benchmark storm track. These transient wave breaks can only do so much with the very active Pacific split flow pattern. We tend to do better with MJO related -NAO drops and start warming events. 

I like the trends on the ensembles for the ~Tuesday possible Miller B event. Both the GEFS and EPS have Davis Strait blocking for a time.

That dreaded E Asian/W Pac jet looks to get roaring past this period, but we'll see. 

[mikem81]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The dominant storm track continues to be cutter and hugger. All our major storms this month tracked through the Great Lakes or right across the area. The next 2 storms look to take the same type of track. It will be interesting to see if we can get the benchmark storm track more active in JFM.
 

Dec 1-10

 

Next 2 storms

 

 

 

 

Would much rather get the cutters in December. Even a BM track in early to mid December doesnt mean snow in the NYC metro..... After 12/20 is a different story. Lets hope the AO and NAO go negative after mid month. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The dominant storm track continues to be cutter and hugger. All our major storms this month tracked through the Great Lakes or right across the area. The next 2 storms look to take the same type of track. It will be interesting to see if we can get the benchmark storm track more active in JFM.

In my forum we say that the lack of all snow solutions are mostly climo related as we are not yet into our peak for all snow events.

However,  I get from your post that we could actually get better BM storms but are lacking the more desired West based NAO block.

 

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we get some help from the AO, the neutral NAO and +EPO won’t really change the storm track. The weaker MJO is a double edged sword. We don’t get the big amped up phase 4-6. But remaining in the circle won’t help with a push into the colder more -NAO phases 8-1 either. So we have this dueling Pacific split flow pattern with some weaker -AO wave break blocking

This too is very interesting..... getting enough wave breaking to help but not enough to achieve a coastal BM solution. 

I thought we were going to get a West Based NAO even without a MJO phase 8 1 ?  

 

 

[Santa Claus]

Looks like this month is a return to the high precipitation regime we were under this year.  Mount Holly mentions the possibility of localized flooding this weekend but there's yet another system a few days behind it, again with robust southerly moisture fetch.  I mean, we'll see how it evolves, it's a week away, but the pattern is favorable.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Looks like this month is a return to the high precipitation regime we were under this year.  Mount Holly mentions the possibility of localized flooding this weekend but there's yet another system a few days behind it, again with robust southerly moisture fetch.  I mean, we'll see how it evolves, it's a week away, but the pattern is favorable.

If you like a lot of winter rain then this is the pattern for you.

I suppose there's a chance the weekend storm acts as a 50/50 for the following system but there's no block around to hold the 50/50 in place so tough luck. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, frd said:

In my forum we say that the lack of all snow solutions are mostly climo related as we are not yet into our peak for all snow events.

However,  I get from your post that we could actually get better BM storms but are lacking the more desired West based NAO block.

 

This too is very interesting..... getting enough wave breaking to help but not enough to achieve a coastal BM solution. 

I thought we were going to get a West Based NAO even without a MJO phase 8 1 ?  

 

 

We had a really sharp shift in the mean December NAO state after 2010. While there were occasional -AO drops, it has been very difficult to sustain a -NAO pattern in December. Every year after December 2010 featured a +NAO. So our last high impact benchmark blizzard track was on Boxing Day 2010. We have had plenty of success with benchmark snowstorms in JFM. Last year was the exception to that.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had a really sharp shift in the mean December NAO state after 2010. While there were occasional -AO drops, it has been very difficult to sustain a -NAO pattern in December. Every year after December 2011 featured a +NAO. So our last high impact benchmark blizzard track was on Boxing Day 2010. We have had plenty of success with benchmark snowstorms in JFM. With the exception of last year.

I think we are seeing some better signs then last year. Is a blockbuster winter incoming? Probably not. It’s almost a lock that December is above normal post 2011.  

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we are seeing some better signs then last year. Is a blockbuster winter incoming? Probably not. It’s almost a lock that December is above normal post 2011.  

Longer range, it will be interesting how the falling IOD impacts the general tropical forcing and MJO.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Very active month 

Next storm to watch is the 17th

[uncle W]

I was never in the historic winter club...I went with a more moderate winter like 1959-60 with 30-40" of snow and one major storm...temps below average from Nov-Mar...mild in the middle...

[purduewx80]

No surprise, but there's still quite the range of solutions so far on the 12Z runs for next week. GFS is still a Lakes cutter, while the UKMET (below) is suppressed/dry, and the Canadian somewhere in between.

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we are seeing some better signs then last year. Is a blockbuster winter incoming? Probably not. It’s almost a lock that December is above normal post 2011.  

my local reporting Station (BDR) is at close to 7 inches of snow in the last 11 days.   So we're already 25% of normal right out of the gate.

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

No surprise, but there's still quite the range of solutions so far on the 12Z runs for next week. GFS is still a Lakes cutter, while the UKMET (below) is suppressed/dry, and the Canadian somewhere in between.

Am thinking suppression is the least likely outcome.  I am thinking a track into New York State given little blocking unless the weekend system can 50/50.  But that would depend on extent of blocking. Even with an inland track, antecedent cold air might be tough to scour out especially low levels (ice signal?) , but that would depend on the speed of a retreating maritimes high. 

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you like a lot of winter rain then this is the pattern for you.

I suppose there's a chance the weekend storm acts as a 50/50 for the following system but there's no block around to hold the 50/50 in place so tough luck. 

Not sure what you’re looking at.  The ensembles have a robust -NAO building by day 8.  Whether that happens or not is another story 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Am thinking suppression is the least likely outcome.  I am thinking a track into New York State given little blocking unless the weekend system can 50/50.  But that would depend on extent of blocking. Even with an inland track, antecedent cold air might be tough to scour out especially low levels (ice signal?) , but that would depend on the speed of a retreating maritimes high. 

The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend 

[bluewave]

Root for the 2nd storm to act more like a weak SWFE rather than a more amplified system. The weekend storm becomes a strong 50/50 low  So we need the 2nd system to stay flat  enough so cold high pressure holds on over New England. Really amped up systems will be too warm in this pattern. 
 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The antecedent airmass isn’t all that very cold, we’re not talking unmodified arctic air. It all depends on a strong 50/50 low staying in place, acting as a block to lock the confluence and cold high in place. Otherwise the high just moves east, return flow, goodbye cold and it just cuts into the lakes as a rainstorm, a la this coming weekend 

Here we go again. The GFS is the only model that shows a cutter and even that scenario would still cause an extended period of frozen precip north and west of NYC before changeover to rain. Every other model shows a colder solution right now. 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Euro is warm at the end of its run. That pacific jet means business... ahhhhhh how sad

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Here we go again. The GFS is the only model that shows a cutter and even that scenario would still cause an extended period of frozen precip north and west of NYC before changeover to rain. Every other model shows a colder solution right now. 

Dont even bother replying to him. He is a troll.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Euro is warm at the end of its run. That pacific jet means business... ahhhhhh how sad

Until next run

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dont even bother replying to him. He is a troll.

How was your white rain this morning? Lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

How was your white rain this morning? Lol

Lovely

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Euro is warm at the end of its run. That pacific jet means business... ahhhhhh how sad

fantasy land at day 10.  (I'd say  that even if it showed the next ice age)

[White Gorilla]

36 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Lovely

88, he just proved your point. 

[MJO812]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

88, he just proved your point. 

I know but he is still a troll.

[White Gorilla]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I know but he is still a troll.

That is what I meant.  Anyway, back to next week...are any models showing icing?