RDRY Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The GFS is at it again, with its latest run driving the long-ways-off Dec. 23 storm right through a massive Midwest-Northeast high pressure. This is an odd fetish with the GFS long range. You'd think the programmers could address it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, RDRY said: The GFS is at it again, with its latest run driving the long-ways-off Dec. 23 storm right through a massive Midwest-Northeast high pressure. This is an odd fetish with the GFS long range. You'd think the programmers could address it. Wonder if it is misinterpreting a CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, RDRY said: The GFS is at it again, with its latest run driving the long-ways-off Dec. 23 storm right through a massive Midwest-Northeast high pressure. This is an odd fetish with the GFS long range. You'd think the programmers could address it. CMC and GFS world's apart at hour 228. Good news is CMC has gotten better with the storm on the 17 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wonder if it is misinterpreting a CAD setup. I guess it's displacing that high due to lack of blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 hour ago, RDRY said: The GFS is at it again, with its latest run driving the long-ways-off Dec. 23 storm right through a massive Midwest-Northeast high pressure. This is an odd fetish with the GFS long range. You'd think the programmers could address it. The model truncates after a certain hour-(less resolution)-that's why anything beyond day 7 or so is pure fantasy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Let's try again at 174 hours on the euro. 6+ before the coast warms up and alot more for inland. It's a very active pattern. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let's try again at 174 hours on the euro. 6+ before the coast warms up and alot more for inland. It's a very active pattern. Something has to give. It has the weekend storm becoming the 50/50 low. So cold high pressure holds on over New England. The Euro would be a nice front end thump if it verified like that. While it’s still a long way out, it’s something that theoretically could work in this pattern. We just need that 50/50 to hold on long enough. Otherwise, the high will scoot east too fast and later runs could correct warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Let's try again at 174 hours on the euro. 6+ before the coast warms up and alot more for inland. It's a very active pattern. Something has to give. That one is a little bit interesting IMO. The weekend storm could possibly amplify into an effective 50/50 and pop a little ridge in Greenland. Ninja'd by bluewave lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It has the weekend storm becoming the 50/50 low. So cold high pressure holds on over New England. The Euro would be a nice front end thump if it verified like that. While it’s still a long way out, it’s something that theoretically could work in this pattern. We just need that 50/50 to hold on long enough. Otherwise, the high will scoot east too fast and later runs could correct warmer. That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: That’s the only way to get Tues/Wed to work next week in this pattern, the 50/50 low needs to be strong and hold. If not, next week turns into a repeat of this upcoming weekend The Euro looks like the only model showing such a strong 50/50. The GFS and CMC are weaker. So those models have less cold high pressure over New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro looks like the only model showing such a strong 50/50. The GFS and CMC are weaker. So those models have less cold high pressure over New England. How accurate is the Euro usually in these types of setups at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 What are the MJO and NAO projections for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: How accurate is the Euro usually in these types of setups at this range? I don’t really trust the models with storm details like until they come within the 120hr time frame. Since small changes or errors can make a big difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What are the MJO and NAO projections for next week? The EPS has been trending to a -NAO but the 12Z Euro is considerably more blocky up there than its ensemble and is snowier here as a result. GEFS is closer to the ECMWF products with the blocking potential than the FV3 is, at least on today's runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t really trust the models with storm details like until they come within the 120hr time frame. Since small changes or errors can make a big difference. Agree. All we can say at this range is potential and that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s been an active last few years. NYC is on track to reach 50 inches of precipitation for the 2nd year in a row. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 6.15 1.95 2.69 48.63 Couple more inches and I'll hit 60" for the year...last year had 69.55". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 6 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870...my stats for precipitation... 10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year 1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26" 1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16" 1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26" 1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32" 1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00" 1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06" 1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53" 1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51" 1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20" 1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54" 1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03" 1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56" 1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92" 2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70" 2010's..............50.50"........38.51".......72.81" 2010-18 1956-1965.......36.87"........26.09".......46.39" 2002-2011.......56.27"........45.21".......72.81" 1870- 2009................45.14" 1980- 2009................50.14" 1870- 1969................42.92" 1970- 2009................50.64" ........................................................................................................................................... 1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park... years.................ave..........lowest........highest 1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67" 1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57" 1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40" 1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68" 1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave... ........................................................................................ ..Here are the wettest months... amount month year... 10.10" June 2013 18.95" August 2011 10.69" March 2010 13.05" April 2007 16.73" October 2005 11.51" September 2004 10.27" June 2003 12.36" August 1990 10.24" May 1989 14.01" April 1983 10.54" March 1983 10.41" March 1980 10.52" January 1979 12.26" November 1977 11.77" July 1975 12.41" November 1972 10.86" August 1955 10.30" September 1944 11.96" September 1934 10.09" September 1933 12.97" October 1913 13.31" October 1903 11.89" July 1889 16.85" September 1882 ................................................................................................................... rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane... date.................amount........ Sept 1882.......10.63" Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria Sept 1938.........5.74" Sept 1934.........5.48" Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd Aug 1879..........4.59" Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle Oct 1877...........4.07" Aug 1893..........3.94" Sept 1904.........3.85" Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria July 1960..........3.56" Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna ............................................................. List of wettest weeks in NYC. 13.02" 10/08-14/2005 12.23" 09/20-26/1882 12.13" 10/07-13/1903 ..9.96" 08/05-11/1990 ..9.85" 04/12-16/2007 ..9.66" 11/04-10/1977 Hi, do you also have snowfall data from the early and mid 1800s? 1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park... years.................ave..........lowest........highest 1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67" 1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57" 1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40" 1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68" 1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hi, do you also have snowfall data from the early and mid 1800s? 1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park... years.................ave..........lowest........highest 1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67" 1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57" 1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40" 1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68" 1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave... Incredibly consistent climate pre 1870 as expected. No monster years and no epic fails that we are now accustomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 White Christmas? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro looks like the only model showing such a strong 50/50. The GFS and CMC are weaker. So those models have less cold high pressure over New England. there's also more western ridging on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: White Christmas? One can dream 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 What once looked like an AK vortex, now looks more like an aleutian low. Plus west coast trough previously advertised is off the coast a bit now. Allows the brief PNA spike. Arctic ridging trending a bit more robust too. Should be fun to see how it plays out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: White Christmas? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Intriguing, but come on... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 4 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Intriguing, but come on... This is a little extreme lol but blocking can do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 39.5degs., or about 2degs. AN. Month to date is -2.2[38.6]. Should be about -0.3[39.0] by the 19th. 35* here and snowing, sticking to cars only. 36* at 7am, and looking more like rain--- even beach is not white like Dec.02-03. 35* at 8am, but a snow burst has whitened the beach. 34* at 9am, still some snow. (was 33* briefly) 40* by 2pm. Our three major models are at about 4" of Snow for the 17th/18th party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2” at the stake this morning, 1” of old crusty stuff and 1” fresh on top. I expect 0” at the stake by Saturday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 2.4 new inches bringing the months total to 14.4 inches. Pleasantly surprised. More importantly there's been snow covered ground every day in December. 11 days and counting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 2.4 new inches bringing the months total to 14.4 inches. Pleasantly surprised. More importantly there's been snow covered ground every day in December. 11 days and counting. Snow cover has been impressive around here, I need to run some numbers later to see how much above average I am so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12 hours ago, NEG NAO said: lock it in, verified, done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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