EasternLI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: So far this fall, the MJO didn’t avoid what would be a warm phase for December. While it did linger in phase 2, it eventually came out into phase 5. So it was similar to last year. That is part of the cold November pattern for us in recent years. The lagged response for phase 5 in November is a colder -EPO pattern. But phase 5 is a milder one in December. The main question going forward is whether the MJO follows the same fall path in December like recent years. Due to the much stronger +IOD, we may see another slow down in phase 2 in early December. The lagged December response for phase 2 is an eventual moderation in temperatures for us. But we would probably need the MJO to make a move into phase 5 in mid or late December to see more significant warmth. So we’ll check back in early December to see what the MJO actually does. The model MJO forecasts aren’t very good beyond 6-10 days. So I don’t really trust any particular forecasts being shown beyond 8-10 days. The model typically goes into correction mode once it shows the actual MJO forecast. The shorter term forecasts will look much different that what was shown beyond 10:days. I don't know. We'll just have to see what happens, but I'm not really seeing as many similarities with last December right now. Other than the eastern Africa/west IO area, the canvas looks totally different to me. One other thing is, I don't really hate dealing with a phase 2 in December. Especially if the +IOD can constructively interfere with it. Last year it seemed like we were plagued by 3,4,5 for endless amounts of time and everything else was muted. Hopefully we can get some variation of the following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gfs is going to transfer off the MD coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is going to transfer off the MD coast Weenie run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 GFS=best case scenario for NYC proper.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Does anyone have a clown map for the 12z GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Would be pleasantly shocked if this or anything remotely close actually transpired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Suffolk County jackpot. That means this is real. I have the Phish concert at the Colliseum on Sunday. Hoping the snow doesn’t cancel the show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 We need the low to get more tucked in there’s plenty of cold air dropping down and any rain will quickly change to heavy snow. A scenario like the GFS depiction will not get northern New Jersey into the heavy snow and south jersey and Long Island will bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Suffolk County jackpot. That means this is real. I have the Phish concert at the Colliseum on Sunday. Hoping the snow doesn’t cancel the show It doesn’t mean this is real. Other models are not in agreement with GFS solution. It will definitely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: It doesn’t mean this is real. Other models are not in agreement with GFS solution. It will definitely change. In GFS we trust 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Monmouth jackpot, lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 12z Canadian also going with a transfer off the coast solution. One thing the models are in agreement, including last night euro, is a coastal transfer. Where that occurs will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95. That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95. That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it I could be wrong but I quite can’t see the similarity in initial setup between the two of them besides them being Miller Bs edit: in 95 the primary low was in Houston, this time it’s looking like it will cross Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 58 minutes ago, psv88 said: Suffolk County jackpot. That means this is real. I have the Phish concert at the Colliseum on Sunday. Hoping the snow doesn’t cancel the show Ha - ill be there as well (Providence too) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 euro with a coastal transfer more south this time but not much in terms of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 +PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: +PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out. If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good. Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good. Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative I agree. Sounds like last year to me. I'm wondering if the +IOD can mute that somewhat. Being that it's helping with subsidence in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good. Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative Have you seen the long range ? It doesnt look bad at all 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 12/19/1995...very cold air to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gfs has 2 storms within a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS 360 hour forecasts continue to correct warmer when they get to around 240 hours. This is why it doesn’t pay to look at what the EPS has beyond 10 days out. New run Old run That's not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 It gets late early around here.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, Dan76 said: It gets late early around here.... Cuz no one comes here anymore, too crowded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Cuz no one comes here anymore, too crowded. You can observe a lot by just watching... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Jeez Mid Atl up to 25 pg's for DEC already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Recent years have conditioned our forum to have lower expectations going into December. Alot of people have also left this forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 That cyclone on the GFS pulling a The Day After Tomorrow on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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