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December 2019


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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

We generally need a high impact event like a rapidly deepening low to pull it off. It also helps to be closer to a climatologically colder and snowier part of the winter. Under these circumstances we can go from 60 degrees to a 12”+.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

Yep at the coast especially you need crazy dynamics to go from 60 to a big snowstorm. Nobodies calling for a big storm though, a few inches is a reasonable expectation with this.

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12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep at the coast especially you need crazy dynamics to go from 60 to a big snowstorm. Nobodies calling for a big storm though, a few inches is a reasonable expectation with this.

It would be nice to get back to the benchmark KU snowstorm pattern that ran up through March 2018. While small or moderate snows are OK, they can’t compare with high end events.This recent pattern has been more like something from the 80’s into the early 90’s. You learn to appreciate whatever snows you can get.;)

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Following a mild start to the work week, a cold front will move across the region on Tuesday with additional periods of rain. Ahead of the front, much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England region could see temperatures top out in the upper 50s and even at or above 60° tomorrow and/or Tuesday. The unseasonable warmth will be short-lived.

As the front slowly moves eastward, a wave could develop along the front bringing parts of the region a light snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be in line for perhaps an inch or two of slushy snow, especially on grassy surfaces. Outside the cities, a general 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears possible.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +4.83 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.725.

In the long-range, there is considerable disagreement among the guidance. The GEFS is colder than the EPS. The CFSv2 favors much colder than normal conditions during weeks 2 and 3 with widespread two-week anomalies of 5° or more below normal. The forecast teleconnections argue for a less cold outcome, though the kind of warmth shown at the extended range of the EPS is not yet a high probability outcome. The progression of the MJO over the next 10 days and the evolution of the AO could provide insight.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 17. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation.

On December 7, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.925 (RMM). The December 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.859.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -5.0[36.1].          Should be about  0.0[39.5] by the 17th.

Our major models are near 2"-4" of Snow for 11th.-14th.       Those same models are 3/5's '50-Degree' days over the next 10 days to 15 days.     What happened?    The T regime changes 7 times in the next 16 days, reckoning from yesterday to today, as number one..

Now if we can just get Santa to put on his glasses and checkout the GFS for X-MAS AM, we can forget about the above.

45* here at 6am, rain.       52* by 9am.!, rain.       53* by Noon.

 

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It does look like other than the middle of this week, Nearly every other day of over the next two weeks will be at or above normal.

 

I’m surprised that rapid change hasn’t gotten more attention on the site

The air that follows next weeks cutter doesnt look all that cold...as of now

Yeah gotta say I was disappointed  with the overnight runs concerning winter weather...will be wet though next ten days with several precip  chances. Today's rain along with tomorrow's  rain/snow may approach  2"...Already 0.50" has fallen here this am.

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It does look like other than the middle of this week, Nearly every other day of over the next two weeks will be at or above normal.

 

I’m surprised that rapid change hasn’t gotten more attention on the site

The air that follows next weeks cutter doesnt look all that cold...as of now

There are 2 snow threats after today. One after the cutter this weekend and one near Christmas  . Long range doesn't look warm at all.

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1 minute ago, doncat said:

Yeah gotta say I was disappointed  with the overnight runs concerning winter weather...will be wet though next ten days with several precip  chances. Today's rain along with tomorrow's  rain/snow may approach  2"...Already 0.50" has fallen here this am.

Gefs continues to have a nice pattern moving forward.  Eps has been too warm in the long range this season.

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just go back a few pages. We have been discussing the -EPO relaxation. Along with the seasonal pattern of December beginning with colder departures and gradually moderating as the month goes on.

485ABCCA-480F-42E2-BC56-D95EEEC6785A.thumb.png.41bfbe9d9c537a97d1385c8f364e0d8d.png
AEFC1B36-044B-4061-88EA-C831F9ADB87F.thumb.png.43372676c37926425c6422d6020f8045.png

Not a bad look. 

Gefs looks alot better than the eps for the long range.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

There are 2 snow threats after today. One after the cutter this weekend and one near Christmas  . Long range doesn't look warm at all.

It looks more wet than white. Who cares if it snows 1-3 inches then races to 50 and rain? This is the point I have made several times from an ecological perspective. Days with snow cover matters more than inches of snow in a year. 
 

Edit: hoping I am wrong but still not having much faith and having a bad day haha. I hate this type of weather more than anything (cold rain). 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

34° and raining.

7 inches of compressed solid snow cover still on the ground. It will be interesting and depressing to see how much snow if any remains on the ground 36 hours from now.

The same temp here and snow at the stake. Still slick in spots on the driveway from earlier. 

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Short duration snow cover has been the norm this decade. The exceptions were 2011, 2014, and 2015. But I don’t mind quick warm ups after snow as long as it’s a quality storm.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30
Seasonal  Snowfall
2019-04-30 12 20.5
2018-04-30 20 40.9
2017-04-30 20 30.2
2016-04-30 11 32.8
2015-04-30 55 50.3
2014-04-30 59 57.4
2013-04-30 11 26.1
2012-04-30 3 7.4
2011-04-30 57 61.9
2010-04-30 25 51.4

 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Short duration snow cover has been the norm this decade. The exceptions were 2011, 2014, and 2015. But I don’t mind quick warm ups after snow as long as it’s a quality storm.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30
Seasonal  Snowfall
2019-04-30 12 20.5
2018-04-30 20 40.9
2017-04-30 20 30.2
2016-04-30 11 32.8
2015-04-30 55 50.3
2014-04-30 59 57.4
2013-04-30 11 26.1
2012-04-30 3 7.4
2011-04-30 57 61.9
2010-04-30 25 51.4

 

agree-we don't hold snowpack well here-give me a bunch of storms and let it melt 2 days later.    

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

It looks more wet than white. Who cares if it snows 1-3 inches then races to 50 and rain? This is the point I have made several times from an ecological perspective. Days with snow cover matters more than inches of snow in a year. 
 

Edit: hoping I am wrong but still not having much faith and having a bad day haha. I hate this type of weather more than anything (cold rain). 

Same here, this weather is the worst as I cannot get anything accomplished. One thing is for sure, no real winter periods are coming. We should see that flip in January to sustained cold and snow. This is not 11/12

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Short duration snow cover has been the norm this decade. The exceptions were 2011, 2014, and 2015. But I don’t mind quick warm ups after snow as long as it’s a quality storm.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30
Seasonal  Snowfall
2019-04-30 12 20.5
2018-04-30 20 40.9
2017-04-30 20 30.2
2016-04-30 11 32.8
2015-04-30 55 50.3
2014-04-30 59 57.4
2013-04-30 11 26.1
2012-04-30 3 7.4
2011-04-30 57 61.9
2010-04-30 25 51.4

 

Snow pack doesn't matter much for the heavily populated areas since it all gets dirty pretty quickly anyway.  For the mountains it matters, and it seems like the mountains have been having a pretty good snowfall season.  The ideal scenario is probably long duration snow cover for the mountains and transient snowfalls for the coast.  If we get one 1-3 incher every week, those add up.  The 6+ or even 12+ inchers can wait until January and February, we dont want to cripple traffic during peak holiday travel and shopping season lol.  If we get 3x 1-3 inchers in December, a few more of them in January and February, plus two or three 6+ inchers in January and February and a few 1-3 inchers in March, that will get most of us to at or above average snowfall.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Same here, this weather is the worst as I cannot get anything accomplished. One thing is for sure, no real winter periods are coming. We should see that flip in January to sustained cold and snow. This is not 11/12

we are fairly stormy too which is always good-not only was there no cold in 11-12 there were literally no shortwaves to spawn a storm

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Short duration snow cover has been the norm this decade. The exceptions were 2011, 2014, and 2015. But I don’t mind quick warm ups after snow as long as it’s a quality storm.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30
Seasonal  Snowfall
2019-04-30 12 20.5
2018-04-30 20 40.9
2017-04-30 20 30.2
2016-04-30 11 32.8
2015-04-30 55 50.3
2014-04-30 59 57.4
2013-04-30 11 26.1
2012-04-30 3 7.4
2011-04-30 57 61.9
2010-04-30 25 51.4

 

Can you break it out by month by chance?

 

December has taken a huge hit where March had to increase over last decade

 

 

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Newark NJ Dec snow depth...

December.....dates....t = trace falling....T = trace on the ground...trace is less than 0.5"...

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

2018...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0...0.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0

2017...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4...4.....1....0....t.....2....1....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....1

2016...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0

2015...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0

2014...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

2013...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....2....1....0....0....4....3....2....4....3....2....2....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0

2012...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.….0....T....0....0....2....1....0

2011...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

2010...….0....0....0....0....0.....t....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...18..24..20..16..14..13

2009...….0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....7....8....6....6....5....5....4....1....0....0....0....0....2

season...01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

2008...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....2....1....0....5....3....4....2....2....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....T

2007...….0....2....T....T....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0.....0....1....1....t.....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t

2006...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

2005...….0....t.....0....4....2....1....T....T....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....T.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T

2004...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0.....t....1....1....T....0....0

2003...….t.....T....0....0....8..16..14..11,,,,9....6....0....0....t.....4....1....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

2002...….T....0....t.....0....7....7....6....4....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....4....2....1....T....0....0....0

2001...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

2000...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...14..12

1999...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1998...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....1....T....0....0....0....t.....t

1997...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0.....t....0....t.....T....T

1996...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T

1995...….T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....T....1....1.....T....T....0....7..10....9....9....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....2

1994...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t....,0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1993...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....T.....0....0....3....3....3

1992...….0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....T....0....0....0

1991...….0....0....0....t.....T....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0

1990...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....8....4....2....0

1989...….0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0.....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T.....0....T....T

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1988...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1987...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....2....2....2

1986...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....0....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0

1985...….0....t.....t.....0....1....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....1....1....T....T....0....t.....0....t.....T....T....0....0

1984...….0....0....0....0....2....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....5....5....T....0....0

1983...….0,,,,T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T.....T....2....1....T....T....T....0....0....0

1982...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1981...….0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....1....1....0....2....T....1....T....T....T.....T....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0

1980...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....t.....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....0....0

1979...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....4....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1978...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0

1977...….0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t

1976...….0....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....5....4....6....5....4....4

1975...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t....T....2....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0

1974...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0...0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1

1973...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t

1972...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1971...….0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t

1970...….0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....0....0....0....0....T....2....2....1....1....2....1....1....T....T....T

1969...….1....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....T....T.....t......t.....t.....t....T....3....6....5....5....4....3....2

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1968...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....T....3....3....2....1....T....T.....0....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....0....0....0

1967...….3....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....T....T.....T....3

1966...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....1....7....8....7....6....6....4....1....1

1965...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0

1964...….0....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T.....0....0....T....0....3....3....2....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1963...….t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....1....1....1....1....1....7....7....5....4....3....3....3....3....3

1962...….0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....3....3....T....T....T.....T....T

1961...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....2....T....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....6..10....8....6....5....2....2....2....2

1960...….t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....4..20..19..17..15..13....8....6....6....6....5....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....3....2....1

1959...….0....0....0....0....0....0....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....5....4....3....3....2....1....0....2....T....0

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1958...….0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....1....4....2....2....1....1....1....1....T....T....0,,,,0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1957...….0....0....1..12....9....8....4....0....0....t.....3....3....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1956...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....T....0....0

1955...….0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....3....3....2....0....0....0....0....T....T.....T

1954...….0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1953...….t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t

1952...….0....3....5....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....3

1951...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....t.....4....2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0

1950...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0.…T....3....3....2....1....T....0

1949...….0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

season.01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31

1948...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....3....2....0....0...13..10..10...6....3....3....3....3....3....2....1....0....3

1947...….0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....1....1...26..20..19..17..15..15

1946...….0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....2....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0

1945...….1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....t.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1...10...7....6....6....6....5....4....0....0....T....2....T....0

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

the years with a good stretch of snow cover for December starting with December 1945..

1945 had snow on the ground from the 14th to the 25th...10" at some point on the 19th...Christmas morning came in with 4" on the ground...That was gone by the next morning from a rain storm..

1947 had snow on the ground from the 23rd and beyond...1" on the ground Christmas morning...26" storm on the 26th...est. 26" on the 26th on the ground ...

1948 had snow on the ground from the 19th to the 30th...13" on the ground on the 19th...heavy rain ended that streak...

1951 had snow on the ground from the 14th-19th...

1957 had snow on the ground from the 3rd-7th and again from the 11th-14th...est 12" on the 4th...

1958 had a little on the ground from the 8th-15th...

1959 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 27th...3" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1960 had snow on the ground from the 11th-31st...20" on the ground on the 12th...2" on the ground Christmas morning...

1961 had snow on the ground from the 23rd to 31st...est, 10" on the ground on the 24th...8" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1962 had snow on the ground from the 21st to the 26th...2" on the ground Christmas morning...

1963 had snow on the ground from the 12th-16th and the 18th-31st...5" was on the ground Christmas morning...The 5th straight year with at least 2" of snow on the ground Christmas morning...

the 23rd had at least 2" on the ground from 1959 to 1964...six straight years...

1966 had snow on the ground from the 21st to 31st...8" on the ground Christmas morning...

1969 from the 25th-31st...maybe a trace in spots Christmas morning...

1970 from the 22nd to the 28th...1" was on the ground Christmas morning...

1976 had snow on the ground from Christmas night to the 31st...

1980 had an inch on the ground from the 23rd-28th...

1995 had snow on the ground from the 19th-31st...4" was on the ground Christmas morning...

2002 had snow on the ground from the 5th-11th...a trace on the ground Christmas morning to 4" Christmas night...

2003 had snow on the ground from the 5th to the 10th...est 16" on the ground on the 6th...heavy rain ended that streak...

2005 from the 9th-15th...

2008 from the 19th-24th...brown Christmas...

2009 from the 19th-26th...4" on the ground Christmas morning...

2010 from the 26th-31st...est 24" on the 27th...

2013 from the 14th-20th...

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GEPS has no BN  '5-Day T Periods'  over the next 15 days and the GEFS has none till the one centered on the 18th.     EPS appears to have none either during the next 10 days, based on its 500mb height anomalies.

Overall view:

2019120912_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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