MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know that people are hungry for snow after last winter. If a coating to 3 mainly on colder surfaces potential causes all this bickering, then better hope the KU snow machine cranks up before the winter is over. I can’t even imagine what this place would have been like from 96-97 to 01-02. Or even 79-80 to 91-92 for that matter. Who said we are only getting a coating ? We dont even know how much precip we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know that people are hungry for snow after last winter. If a coating to 3 mainly on colder surfaces potential causes all this bickering, then better hope the KU snow machine cranks up before the winter is over. I can’t even imagine what this place would have been like from 96-97 to 01-02. Or even 79-80 to 91-92 for that matter. after the February 1969 storm there wasn't another major storm or above average snowfall until 1977-78...the next winter with over 30" would be 1993-94...in between there was the Feb 79 and Feb 83 storms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: You know that people are hungry for snow after last winter. If a coating to 3 mainly on colder surfaces potential causes all this bickering, then better hope the KU snow machine cranks up before the winter is over. I can’t even imagine what this place would have been like from 96-97 to 01-02. Or even 79-80 to 91-92 for that matter. That's what happens when we get spoiled with KU after KU since 2000. You really start to lose your appreciation for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: I can’t even imagine what this place would have been like from 96-97 to 01-02. Those were indeed fun days on the boards but the community was much smaller then. To your point, I can’t imagine that again today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Those were indeed fun days on the boards but the community was much smaller then. To your point, I can’t imagine that again today. I assume it would be exactly the opposite of the big winters around here lately when the trolls and pessimists still managed to poopoo every threat and every storm....had they been right we’d have roughly 1-3” of snow every winter. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Those were indeed fun days on the boards but the community was much smaller then. To your point, I can’t imagine that again today. What was that one that was really popular around here? There were some pretty significant meltdowns there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 59 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who said we are only getting a coating ? We dont even know how much precip we will get. The Euro has 3.8” as frozen including mixed for NYC. It starts at 38 and ends at 32. So cut that in half for cold surface accusation to around 2”. The coating is if later runs decrease the precipitation and it’s a little warmer. The 3 could be some colder spots like the North Shore of Long Island with a heavier snow burst and the temp falling to 31. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro has 3.8” as frozen including mixed for NYC. It starts at 38 and ends at 32. So cut that in half for cold surface accusation to around 2”. The coating is if later runs decrease the precipitation and it’s a little warmer. The 3 could be some colder spots like the North Shore of Long Island with a heavier snow burst and the temp falling to 31. 2-4 is a good call for NYC right now. These events like to juice up at the last second. Let's see if that happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2-4 is a good call for NYC right now. These events like to juice up at the last second. Let's see if that happens here. I would say similar amounts to the north, less qpf but higher ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2-4 is a good call for NYC right now. These events like to juice up at the last second. Let's see if that happens here. Eh. C-2" we were reminded what marginal temps in this UHI do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Eh. C-2" we were reminded what marginal temps in this UHI do. This isnt the same setup as the last storm. What'd the point of going low ? These events usually favor the coast. The models went colder today. We have to see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 With rain and no current snow cover with temps in 50's tomorrow, rain with temps 60 or low 60's Tuesday, unfrozen ground, heat island effect, and marginal temps, the city proper will be lucky to see a car topper at the end. I could be wrong? But, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: With rain and no current snow cover with temps in 50's tomorrow, rain with temps 60 or low 60's Tuesday, unfrozen ground, heat island effect, and marginal temps, the city proper will be lucky to see a car topper at the end. I could be wrong? But, I doubt it. Why does everyone think it's not going to stick in the city ? Alot of you will be in for a rude awakening if the colder trends contnue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Why does everyone think it's not going to stick in the city ? Alot of you will be in for a rude awakening if the colder trends contnue. I hope so for you guys. But I just ain't confident Ant. The wave at this point may not even materialize as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: With rain and no current snow cover with temps in 50's tomorrow, rain with temps 60 or low 60's Tuesday, unfrozen ground, heat island effect, and marginal temps, the city proper will be lucky to see a car topper at the end. I could be wrong? But, I doubt it. The ground below a few feet has to be cold. Combined that with nighttime precip should mean business and definitely more than a car topper just my two satoshis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Sref plumes are a general 3-5 inches across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Sref plumes are a general 3-5 inches across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Cant understand why people are always so fixated on whats gonna accumulate and where in nyc proper....when many of them live 10's of miles away in a totally different environment. If I get 3" at my location, I really don't care if the streets in Manhattan are only wet. If you live in the urban areas...different story. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Cant understand why people are always so fixated on whats gonna accumulate and where in nyc proper....when many of them live 10's of miles away in a totally different environment. If I get 3" at my location, I really don't care if the streets in Manhattan are only wet. If you live in the urban areas...different story. I guess it comes down to the biggest snows in NYC usually sharing the wealth with the wider area. One exception was February 2006 which wasn’t as good in some spots. But the best snows in NYC generally mean many surrounding areas do very well. January 2016 was a great example of this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, doncat said: Cant understand why people are always so fixated on whats gonna accumulate and where in nyc proper....when many of them live 10's of miles away in a totally different environment. If I get 3" at my location, I really don't care if the streets in Manhattan are only wet. If you live in the urban areas...different story. Could not agree more. It why in my UHI inner city area I never listen to early frost reports. In my area frost, even on cars, is as rare as an accurate snow measurement in CPK. As always .... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Why does everyone think it's not going to stick in the city ? Alot of you will be in for a rude awakening if the colder trends contnue. Its not the temps on Wednesday that are the problem. It's the prolonged 50s and 60s ahead of it. Sure higher rates can overcome but it'll be difficult. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Next 7 days now up to an average of +6 or +7 at 45degs. Maybe some snow cover can give us a more favorable boundary layer and tame the AN regime for a while. If the 11th/12th fails, it is probably onto the 17th, 22nd/23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, RichBailey said: I can recall generous accumulations on Long Island a day or two after being 60 degrees not a worry for me Piece of cake with a low bombing out near the benchmark in the heart of winter like 2-9-17. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Piece of cake with a low bombing out near the benchmark in the heart of winter like 2-9-17. Not with light to moderate snows along a front though. If you can squeeze out 2" Wednesday you take it gladly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Piece of cake with a low bombing out near the benchmark in the heart of winter like 2-9-17. Yes that's not what we have here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not with light to moderate snows along a front though. If you can squeeze out 2" Wednesday you take it gladly. 2-4 if the models continue to get colder. It's going to come down hard once the front crashes. Its going to be interesting to watch unfold. I remember the models getting juicier the last time we had the same situation a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes that's not what we have here. Alot of areas will pick up a few inches. This is a dynamic system also. Battle of the warm and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not with light to moderate snows along a front though. If you can squeeze out 2" Wednesday you take it gladly. 16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes that's not what we have here. We generally need a high impact event like a rapidly deepening low to pull it off. It also helps to be closer to a climatologically colder and snowier part of the winter. Under these circumstances we can go from 60 degrees to a 12”+. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We generally need a high impact event like a rapidly deepening low to pull it off. It also helps to be closer to a climatologically colder part of the winter. Under these circumstances we can go from 60 to a 12”+. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017 This was a nice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Active December so far . Gfs has a few more storms on the horizon . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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