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December 2019


NYCweatherNOW
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Despite bright sunshine and a cloudless sky during the mid- and late-afternoon, the temperature in New York City reached a maximum reading of 38°. The snow from earlier in the week had almost completely disappeared from the landscape.

At the New York Botanical Garden, the annual train show was underway. At the show were replicas of present and past New York City-area landmarks constructed out of wood and other natural materials.

Four photos (three from inside the show for a flavor).

NYBG12072019-7.jpg

NYBG12072019-2.jpg

NYBG12072019-5.jpg

NYBG12072019-6.jpg

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CMC has been showing unrealistically high snowfall amounts for the coast. It had a warning level snows  for NYC on Dec 2nd and Nov12th. I don’t remember if it always did this or it happened after an upgrade. Main challenge for accumulations Wednesday morning will be temperatures falling from the low 60’s on Tuesday.  Most guidance has temperatures falling to around 34-36 Wednesday morning  which would be a challenge to accumulate much if it ends as snow.

We had had many of these kinds of setups in the past where we had several inches. It's not hard at all to get accumulating snow. 

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52 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I hope the 12z Canadian is on to something for Wednesday. Looks good. Anyone got the Canadian clown maps?

cmc.PNG

Icon is similiar but its warmer. We had a few of these events several years ago. These tend to trend northwest  and colder. Let's see if it happens here.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The one before Thanksgiving didn’t give us much. Plus the ground will still be pretty warm. 

Agreed.

Honestly we did well so far with the accumulation from the last storm, so I feel lucky in a lot of respects given the way the teleconnections look moving forward.

Obviously areas north of us got clobbered, but then again the MA is still looking for their first heading into this period!

You had this month pegged the whole time. Thanks for the continued insight!

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one before Thanksgiving didn’t give us much. Plus the ground will still be pretty warm. Maybe a car topper or light accumulation on the grass if it actually ends as snow.

Yea but we had setups like this in 2016 and 2013 where we saw several inches.  If a wave develops  , we can get accumulating snow once the 0c line crashes. 

18z Euro got wetter and would be nice past 90 hours.

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Following yesterday's mild readings, today saw readings remain well below normal across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +7.16 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.496.

No significant stratospheric warming appears likely through December 16. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation.

On December 6, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.854 (RMM). The December 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.631.

The first week of December saw readings average more than 4° below normal across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. A more variable pattern is now poised to develop.

There is a chance that the coming week could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, cold shots will continue to occur on a periodic basis. By December 15, the anomaly will likely be 1°-2° below normal. The third week of the month could turn colder and possibly for a more sustained period of time, especially if the EPO goes negative.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I'm not expecting anything significant until after the 20th...hopefully Christmas week sees some snow...

Flah freezes will cool off the ground fast enough for the snow to stick.  Let's see what happens . Watch midweek.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

With the marginal BL temps and warm ground , we would  lose a portion of whatever snow that falls to melting. But there could be a light accumulation on the colder surfaces if it does end as snow.

I wouldn't count out the midweek storm for several inches just yet.

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The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -5.3[36.0].          Should be -1.4[38.8] by the 16th.

31* here at 6am.       35* by 9am.       40* by Noon.       42* by 3pm.

Our three major models are 3" to 5" of Snow on the 11th/13th.      The Cobb Method using the GFS is a Trace, that washes away immediately.

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Once again, stop using the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, grossly, horribly inaccurate. Remember the last storm when people kept posting that the city was getting 6 inches of snow and it got one inch? That was thanks to using the 10:1 ratio maps. Here is the accurate one, compare: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120806&fh=90

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro begins mixing when NYC is 37 degrees. Temps fall to 33 when the snow ends early Wednesday. So it has 2.8 falling from the sky as snow or mix. Figure on a C-2 on the colder surfaces like then grass in Central Park since a portion of that will melt.

The one good thing about this event is the snow falls at night that’s a very big advantage no matter how you look at it

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It could be close to 40 when we have a changeover after midnight. Remember it will be in the low 60’s on Tuesday. Temperatures will need to fall to at least 33 or 34 for light accumulations on the grass to occur in NYC Central Park. Plus you need enough of a snowfall rate to get accumulation  the ball rolling in marginal temperarures.

Exactly! And you aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios, they are going to be lower than that

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