December 2019

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Haha. I remember the discussion last year about November snows killing winter. Worked for us in 2002 and 1995 and 2012. Worked against us in 1989 2011 and last year.

2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30.  I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Haha. I remember the discussion last year about November snows killing winter. Worked for us in 2002 and 1995 and 2012. Worked against us in 1989 2011 and last year.

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

[EastonSN+]

The mild up time would be when the EPO goes positive and PNA goes negative. If the below is correct.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

Huge gradient last year it seems. In SW Coastal CT we had 22, 8 below the 30 to 35 average range.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30.  I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years 

We came up with the idea (well Chris did) that it takes time for the pattern to reload, especially after such an anomalous early season snowfall.  If the first snowfall is later, then it's not so anomalous.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

Remember when we were saying JFK was coming close to having its earliest last snowfall lol?

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

Another way of looking at it is ISP got hosed in early March.  We got 12" over the first few days of the month which brought us from single digits to 21.7".

We had 4.5" in the November 15 snowfall.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

The mild up time would be when the EPO goes positive and PNA goes negative. If the below is correct.

That looks horrid for Xmas week (as usual)

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That looks horrid for Xmas week (as usual)

Yeah it's not cool at all. However firmly believe this will not be as bad as last year following the approx 2 bad week period.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it's not cool at all. However firmly believe this will not be as bad as last year following the approx 2 bad week period.

Way out there to takes these to heart.

[MJO812]

Euro has anafrontal snow for mid week.

[David-LI]

euro with an overruning event next Wednesday. An inch or two for now.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

euro with an overruning event next Wednesday. An inch or two for now.

Trended towards the other models. It has been late on every storm this year.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

2 inches of heavy rain followed by 1-2 of light snow. Too bad we can’t reverse this.

 

 

 

My poor gutters.

Let's keep chipping away at the snow average inch by inch.

[LibertyBell]

Chris is that drop actually going to occur during the storm?

That might be another two part storm!

 

[MJO812]

Eps has 1 -2 inches for the area with the anafront

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to what the MJO does. The GFS has a milder looking MJO forecast than the Euro. But these forecasts can change quite a bit over the course of a few days. 
 

 

verbatim that's low amplitude which might mitigate the warmth a bit-last year was stronger if I'm remembering correctly

[forkyfork]

@bluewave

 

 

[Eduardo]

From a hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

 

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

[CIK62]

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

From above post:

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

[MJO812]

Just now, CIK62 said:

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

 

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

Euro weeklies have been horrible  Eps has also been horrible. 

[MJO812]

[Eduardo]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

From above post:

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

Felicitous choice of analogy!  Posts like these are why I love these boards.  Excellent convo all-around today.  Thanks!!

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

not much there-rain ending as snow, ground will be wet, maybe a dusting on colder surfaces if it pans out at all....

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not much there-rain ending as snow, ground will be wet, maybe a dusting on colder surfaces if it pans out at all....

It's a wave along the front. It's not rain ending as snow.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not much there-rain ending as snow, ground will be wet, maybe a dusting on colder surfaces if it pans out at all....

We have seen a lot of these in 2013. We also had one in 2016 with dropped a few inches. 

[doncat]

46 day temp outlooks? Please.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro weeklies have been horrible  Eps has also been horrible. 

The EPS has been too warm while the GEFS has been too cold. But these biases can change in the future.

https://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

 

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS has been too warm while the GEFS has been too cold. But these biases can change in the future.

https://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

 

 

Average out the two and see what you get.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to what the MJO does. The GFS has a milder looking MJO forecast than the Euro. But these forecasts can change quite a bit over the course of a few days. 
 

 

Agreed. Hopefully if GFS is right it's at that low amplification.