December 2019

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here are the probabilities of NYC getting a 6” warning snowfall in a December -EPO and +NAO pattern.

SWFE............................Medium

Benchmark KU.............Low

IVT Nurlon....................Low

Anafrontal....................Low

Yes, I believe 6" is a good criterion to use because we had plenty of 4" and less snowfalls in bad scenarios during the 80s lol.

 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I know everyone likes to look at the MJO RMM charts. But sometimes the low frequency forcing can tell the story. Notice the persistent low frequency forcing since the beginning of November over the WPAC. It lines up with a MJO 6 pattern this time of year. You can see this is the December pattern so far with the -EPO and +NAO. All the guidance continues this pattern until further notice. So the -EPO and +NAO may turn out to be the dominant December pattern.  

 

How does December 2013 compare?  IIRC, we had a relatively cold month and managed one -EPO/+NAO-driven SWFE mid-month or so.  After that, we really got underway with several "thread-the-needle" events a few days after New Years.  2013-14 was one of my favorite winters, but I am wondering whether we would be playing with fire taking our chances with that pattern again.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

How does December 2013 compare?  IIRC, we had a relatively cold month and managed one -EPO/+NAO-driven SWFE mid-month or so.  After that, we really got underway with several "thread-the-needle" events a few days after New Years.  2013-14 was one of my favorite winters, but I am wondering whether we would be playing with fire taking our chances with that pattern again.

all I remember from that winter is a lot of change to rain scenarios.  2014-15 was far better, especially for Long Island

[Eduardo]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

all I remember from that winter is a lot of change to rain scenarios.  2014-15 was far better, especially for Long Island

Maybe my memory is failing me, but I remember it being bitter cold with long-lasting snowpack after December.  Wasn't that the winter where we had an all-snow event with single-digit temps?

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Maybe my memory is failing me, but I remember it being bitter cold with long-lasting snowpack after December.  Wasn't that the winter where we had an all-snow event with single-digit temps?

I think there was a huge gradient from SE to nw.

In SW Coastal CT it was the 3rd snowiest winter of the 2000s. Only one storm changed over to rain and still dropped 13.5 inches of snow. Think that storm was Jan.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Maybe my memory is failing me, but I remember it being bitter cold with long-lasting snowpack after December.  Wasn't that the winter where we had an all-snow event with single-digit temps?

I thought that was 2014-15 with the bitter cold and long lasting snowpack lol.

SST were below freezing and we got freezing drizzle on a sea breeze!

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I thought that was 2014-15 with the bitter cold and long lasting snowpack lol.

SST were below freezing and we got freezing drizzle on a sea breeze!

 

2013 2014 was the polar vortex attack.

2014 2015 was the winter that started in mid January, had the blizzard debacle where EURO showed 36 and we got 6 to 12 and we all had an epic March.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

How does December 2013 compare?  IIRC, we had a relatively cold month and managed one -EPO/+NAO-driven SWFE mid-month or so.  After that, we really got underway with several "thread-the-needle" events a few days after New Years.  2013-14 was one of my favorite winters, but I am wondering whether we would be playing with fire taking our chances with that pattern again.

December 2013 was a +NAO and -EPO pattern also. My guess is that the warming WPAC is giving us this low frequency forcing pattern. We got a lucky SFWE on 12-13-14. So NYC finished with above normal snowfall in December. But the MJO going into 4-5 spoiled the party with the 70 degree temperatures around the solstice. That was the only reason NYC finished +1 instead of a cold departure. So root for the MJO to stay weak the rest of the month with a lucky SWFE.

[binbisso]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here are the probabilities of NYC getting a 6” warning snowfall in a December -EPO and +NAO pattern.

SWFE............................Medium

Benchmark KU.............Low

IVT Nurlon....................Low

Anafrontal....................Low

I never mentioned anything about a 6 Plus in snowfall since I'm 57 years old I know how rare they are except for this last decade. I lived Thru the horrible 80s and mostly 90s takeaway 93 94 and 95 96. My point was basically that were in a cold pattern and that without cold enough air it will not snow and can not snow which has been the case for many of the December's this decade. I'm perfectly fine with 1 to 3 and 3 to 6 in snow falls. And those are much easier to achieve even with a cutter when there's Arctic are in place as it will snow quite often on the front end especially as we head into late December and January. Those 1040 MB highs are hard to push out the deeper we get into the cold season

[binbisso]

My preference is for it to be winter in winter. And I prefer it to be cold and tracking 10 to 15 storms per year and they all can be between 1 to 6 in and that would be an A+ winter for me. The worst winter I've ever lived through happened a few years ago during the Super El Nino when we had the one blizzard that gave us two and a half feet of snow. I don't think there was another storm to track that whole winter much worse than the 80s and 90s in my opinion.

Edit. Actually the winter of 9798 was the worst winter I've ever experienced then came the super el nino a few years ago in a close second

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it depends though, if you look back at the 80s, January temps averaged in the 20s and there was a scarcity of snow.  If you look at our snowiest winters, they actually weren't all that cold.  Storm track is actually more important than Arctic air for snowfall at the coast.  Arctic air is very fragile at our latitude and near the coast, you need a storm that takes the right track to keep it in place with the right wind direction.

 

 

 

Very little Atlantic Blocking back then.  Similar to what we've seen the past couple of years....so it's cold, warmup rain back to cold...need the block to lock in the cold air and force the storm track south

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2013 2014 was the polar vortex attack.

2014 2015 was the winter that started in mid January, had the blizzard debacle where EURO showed 36 and we got 6 to 12 and we all had an epic March.

and an epic February 2015 also!  That was an amazing month!

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2013 2014 was the polar vortex attack.

2014 2015 was the winter that started in mid January, had the blizzard debacle where EURO showed 36 and we got 6 to 12 and we all had an epic March.

March 2014 was disappointing because the main area of snow was to our south.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

My preference is for it to be winter in winter. And I prefer it to be cold and tracking 10 to 15 storms per year and they all can be between 1 to 6 in and that would be an A+ winter for me. The worst winter I've ever lived through happened a few years ago during the Super El Nino when we had the one blizzard that gave us two and a half feet of snow. I don't think there was another storm to track that whole winter much worse than the 80s and 90s in my opinion.

Yes, the thing I dont want is snow changing to rain.  I am fine with lots of 6-8 inch storms that stay all snow even if the bullseye is to my east.  The one big 30" storm was great enough to make the rest of winter not matter though lol.  I wanted that one historic storm.  The only good winter in the 80s was 1983.  As for the 90s, 93-94 and 95-96 were two of the best winters, the rest were junk, outside of 92-93 which was average.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 2013 was a +NAO and -EPO pattern also. My guess is that the warming WPAC is giving us this low frequency forcing pattern. We got a lucky SFWE on 12-13-14. So NYC finished with above normal snowfall in December. But the MJO going into 4-5 spoiled the party with the 70 degree temperatures around the solstice. That was the only reason NYC finished +1 instead of a cold departure. So root for the MJO to stay weak the rest of the month with a lucky SWFE.

Honestly I feel much better about this winter as compared to last due to appearance of an NAO and AO in the negative phases. Also the negative EpO is fairly static.

Not expecting an epic winter like 2013 2014, however this winter is already looking better than last.

I think an average snowfall winter is in store. Last year was relatively close to average.

[binbisso]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the thing I dont want is snow changing to rain.  I am fine with lots of 6-8 inch storms that stay all snow even if the bullseye is to my east.  The one big 30" storm was great enough to make the rest of winter not matter though lol.  I wanted that one historic storm.  The only good winter in the 80s was 1983.  As for the 90s, 93-94 and 95-96 were two of the best winters, the rest were junk, outside of 92-93 which was average.

 

 

 

Yes nobody likes snow to rain. And that storm was fun to experience. With the pattern  we're in we have a chance because it's cold enough unlike the last several December's and Winters in general where it was just too warm to snow. If it's 50 degrees and you have a benchmark track what good is that. We have a chance this December that's all I'm asking for. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, the thing I dont want is snow changing to rain.  I am fine with lots of 6-8 inch storms that stay all snow even if the bullseye is to my east.  The one big 30" storm was great enough to make the rest of winter not matter though lol.  I wanted that one historic storm.  The only good winter in the 80s was 1983.  As for the 90s, 93-94 and 95-96 were two of the best winters, the rest were junk, outside of 92-93 which was average.

 

 

 

Yeah, small 1-2 inch  events like the other day are nice. But we need the help of multiple warning level snow events for a normal to above normal snowfall season.

[MJO812]

Anafront

[SnowGoose69]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very little Atlantic Blocking back then.  Similar to what we've seen the past couple of years....so it's cold, warmup rain back to cold...need the block to lock in the cold air and force the storm track south

There were actually a decent number of months with a -NAO in the 80s and two full winters where it averaged negative in 83-84 and 84-85 but the tendency with the cold AMO was just for there not to be a large number of east coast storms 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Anafront

The trof and the pattern appear too progressive to me for there to really be any legit chance we see something ride up that boundary but we are still far out 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There were actually a decent number of months with a -NAO in the 80s and two full winters where it averaged negative in 83-84 and 84-85 but the tendency with the cold AMO was just for there not to be a large number of east coast storms 

That's a good point.  Coastals were fairly rare compared to what we've seen once the AMO went positive.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's a good point.  Coastals were fairly rare compared to what we've seen once the AMO went positive.

The rapid warming of the NW Atlantic independent of the AMO may be an even bigger story for all the extreme coastal storms we continue to see.

https://phys.org/news/2016-01-northwest-atlantic-ocean-warmer-sooner.html

[EastonSN+]

Another positive. MJO is staying in better phases longer and bad phases in lower amplification.

[BxEngine]

Its a good thing we’re behind last years snow. The november snow ruined winter so we’re in good shape. /sarcasm

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Another positive. MJO is staying in better phases longer and bad phases in lower amplification.

Don't get me wrong. I think we mild up for a couple weeks, however not lose 3 months like last year.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, small 1-2 inch  events like the other day are nice. But we need the help of multiple warning level snow events for a normal to above normal snowfall season.

1-2 inch events if we got them as frequently as we did in January 2009, would make for a nice snowcover and wintry feel.  But generally you do need at least a few 6-8 inch events to make it feel like a good winter.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Its a good thing we’re behind last years snow. The november snow ruined winter so we’re in good shape. /sarcasm

Haha. I remember the discussion last year about November snows killing winter. Worked for us in 2002 and 1995 and 2012. Worked against us in 1989 2011 and last year.

[Brian5671]

JB says the 2nd storm next week will be a cutter b/w 2 cold airmasses....rare to see that kind of post from him

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The rapid warming of the NW Atlantic independent of the AMO may be an even bigger story for all the extreme coastal storms we continue to see.

https://phys.org/news/2016-01-northwest-atlantic-ocean-warmer-sooner.html

Looks like the Gulf Stream is the most rapidly warming part of the Atlantic, thanks to AGW?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The rapid warming of the NW Atlantic independent of the AMO may be an even bigger story for all the extreme coastal storms we continue to see.

https://phys.org/news/2016-01-northwest-atlantic-ocean-warmer-sooner.html

I cant wait for when we stop complaining about JFK snowfall measurements when JFK is underwater

/sarcasm