Juliancolton Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 There's a full-fledged thunderstorm taking place here. Loud, sharp rumbles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 half inch hail on mPing NW of Trenton; VIL on the stronger cells supports this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Can see the storms in NJ on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: There's a full-fledged thunderstorm taking place here. Loud, sharp rumbles. Happy Spring, enjoy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Impressive looking cell for late December. Continuation of the steep midlevel lapse rates that have become more common in recent years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Just hailed here in Rockaway Borough, Morris County.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Just heard a rumble of thunder here in New Providence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 JFC.. Have never heard thunder this loud.. never. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Absolutely ripping downpours, hail, and deep thunder. Sure doesn't feel like the end of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Just had hail in butler Nj smh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Rumble of thunder here with small hail. No wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Nice article that explains why thunder sounds louder and travels further/lasts longer in colder temperatures: https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2019-02-21-cold-thunderstorms-winter-temperature-inversion-thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Nice article that explains why thunder sounds louder and travels further/lasts longer in colder temperatures: https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2019-02-21-cold-thunderstorms-winter-temperature-inversion-thunder Yeah I first noticed that when I was a little kid. Pouring here now...no thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Happy Spring, enjoy! Spring cancel as it's pelting sleet now with a nice mushy coating on everything. At this point I genuinely can't tell if I'm hearing plows or thunder 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 What a potpourri of precip going on. A little while ago it got really dark, the rain was pelting down then the lightning and thunder started and right on cue it started hailing heavily. It was pea to dime sized hail for about 4 minutes but I drove west through it. Right after the hail ended it turned to mixed heavy sleet with rain then a few miles later (and 300 feet uphill) it was mixed rain sleet and snow. Now here at home it's mixed rain and sleet, mostly sleet, and it's accumulating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 A poorly installed wind turbine blew down in the Bronx. Larchmont Harb N/A 39 N/A N/A NE38G51 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Isotherm said: Exactly +1.0 here through this morning. After today and tomorrow, likely near 50F, I expect that will be a bit higher. Departures about as I expected nationwide; slightly warmer than normal in the NYC-metro region; a little lower than I had for Dec, but good overall. Snowfall here was 3.7". How much do you both have to date? I measured 6 so far, Rossi close to 5, saw Holmdel measurements of 5, PSV measured 6, UNC measured 4.5 etc. Not sure any of those were reported to NWS but those are legit totals by respectable posters. NYC should finish either side of plus 1 after the 1st 20 days finishing - 2.7 Plus 1 for many and 4 to 6 inches for several posters near the coast for December is a decent month considering some of the recent December`s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Isotherm said: Exactly +1.0 here through this morning. After today and tomorrow, likely near 50F, I expect that will be a bit higher. Departures about as I expected nationwide; slightly warmer than normal in the NYC-metro region; a little lower than I had for Dec, but good overall. Snowfall here was 3.7". How much do you both have to date? 4.5" here Tom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 How can the EURO be indicating snow when its average cut for the next 10 days is 36/50 or a record 10 or 11 degrees AN. 43 degrees is the mean for late Nov. Look let's keep this simple. The typical northeast snowstorm does not bring the cold air with it. It is already here with a CAD setup to keep it here. Therefore, I like to look for a period with high temperatures below 32 for two or three days. Since precipitation tends to occur every third to fourth day, and the BL and Skin T are surely cold enough to support snow with the previous conditions mentioned----this should give us at least some white stuff. Better than waiting for a Blizzard of 1888 setup to take the T from 53 to 06. Besides every upcoming precipitation event and the current one, have 850mb T's >0C, so what kind of frozen precipitation could we get anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Rain for event of 1.37...Station record for Dec. of 8.17" and yearly now at 62.24". Another impressively wet month and year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 40 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I measured 6 so far, Rossi close to 5, saw Holmdel measurements of 5, PSV measured 6, UNC measured 4.5 etc. Not sure any of those were reported to NWS but those are legit totals by respectable posters. NYC should finish either side of plus 1 after the 1st 20 days finishing - 2.7 Plus 1 for many and 4 to 6 inches for several posters near the coast for December is a decent month considering some of the recent December`s. Dec on paper was fine In reality it was very rainy with a lot of missed opportunities It will now be followed by an indefinite period of fall-like warmth. I don’t think anybody would be complaining about Dec if we were seeing 30s and 20s going forward. In reality, it seems like we had a marginal Dec and took a turn for the worse People keep comparing this to last winter, but last winter was cold during the dry periods and warm for precip. This looks more like an extended period of warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Dec on paper was fine In reality it was very rainy with a lot of missed opportunities It will now be followed by an indefinite period of fall-like warmth. I don’t think anybody would be complaining about Dec if we were seeing 30s and 20s going forward. In reality, it seems like we had a marginal Dec and took a turn for the worse People keep comparing this to last winter, but last winter was cold during the dry periods and warm for precip. This looks more like an extended period of warmth. good points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: A poorly installed wind turbine blew down in the Bronx. Larchmont Harb N/A 39 N/A N/A NE38G51 That was pretty new too in co op city, just outside Bay Plaza. Did the massive digital billboard next to it fall too? I'm outta town now but obs show a windy day there. Had to go to New Orleans. Got away from the (not so) cold. Had one and a half days of near record temps approaching a humid 80, its back to some 50s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Two photos along the Long Island Sound from early this afternoon. The temperature was 41° with drizzle. The wind was gusting around 40 mph by the water. Great pics Don. I was hanging out near the water in Massapequa during my lunch break. Short clip: https://streamable.com/0dqnm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: Great pics Don. I was hanging out near the water in Massapequa during my lunch break. Short clip: https://streamable.com/0dqnm Thanks for sharing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The storm that brought the year's last significant precipitation to the region is now departing. Steady precipitation was falling across eastern Long Island and into eastern New England. Precipitation amounts were in line with expectations. Through 8 pm, amounts included: Allentown: 0.75"; Baltimore: 0.83"; Boston: 1.17"; Bridgeport: 1.39"; Harrisburg: 0.69"; Islip: 1.12"; New York City: 0.99"; Newark: 0.97"; Philadelphia: 0.99"; Poughkeepsie: 1.12"; Providence: 1.44"; and, Scranton: 0.50". Through December 29, monthly anomalies for select cities were: Baltimore: +2.3°, Boston: +2.0°, Islip: +0.7°, New York City: +0.4°, Newark: +0.6°, Philadelphia: +0.7°, and Washington, DC: +1.6°. January will begin on a generally mild not with the first week averaging 5° or more above normal across much of the region. A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into part of the second week. Afterward, a tendency for ridging could develop during the latter part of the second week of the month. Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly during the January 6-9 period. Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.9°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +1.09 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.389. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 8, but warming will very likely develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb toward the end of the first week of January. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted at 30 mb through most of the first week of January, but a moderate Wave 2 hit could occur at or above 10 mb leading to the upper stratospheric warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the first week of January on the EPS. However, the upper stratospheric warming will need to be watched for possible downward propagation. On December 29, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.262 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.265. Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during that timeframe. The mean temperature for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.4°. At present, a warmer than normal January appears likely in the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Picked up 0.45" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total 0.73" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The last day of December is averaging 42degs., or about 8degs. AN. Month to date is +0.6[38.2_]. December should end at +0.8[38.3]. The first week of January is averaging 42degs., or about 9degs. AN. With this start, remainder of January will have to be about -3 to finish near Normal. GFS/GEM have a T of Snow near the 7th. GFS goes on to have days in the 60's.[1932 records in jeopardy?----a ridiculous +35 near the 13th] Both models have just a Trace of a Brain between them. HAPPY 2020 TO ALL for now. 38* here at 6am. 42* by 11am. Peaked at 46* at 4pm. LAST CALL FOR ALCOHOL on the month of J A N U A R Y : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 This was the wettest December on record at JFK. First time reaching 8.00” or more during the month. The top 3 wettest Decembers were all since 2014. Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2019 8.03 1 2 2014 7.04 0 3 2018 6.76 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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