December 2019

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

why not show the very same models 4 days later????   perhaps because they show it being cold??  thanks for proving my point.

Relax. Stop thinking that everyone has an agenda. This is weather and not politics. 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Mersky said:

Oh look the reds are gone but of course they don’t fit the narrative or the agenda some have on here so they just ignore it 

 

 

Bluewave has no "narrative" or "agenda." He posts a wide range of content about the weather--cold and warm, precipitation, etc.

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Mersky said:

but you only posted a certain day showing warmth and NEVER mentioned that it gets colder after. Why is that??

Why argue about January in the December thread after it’s already been pointed out that there is a January thread?  Why is that??

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

but you only posted a certain day showing warmth and NEVER mentioned that it gets colder after. Why is that??

You just joined yesterday and already you are derailing this thread. Specific temperature forecasts lose skill beyond beyond 5-7 days. So what is the point of posting raw day 10 temperature forecasts in the December thread. That’s what the January thread is for. Here is the raw model forecast that has been corrected for known biases. It doesn’t go out 10 days.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/28/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04 CLIMO
 X/N  53| 41  48| 41  52| 42  51| 36  47| 35  44| 40  46| 43  48 26 39

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Mersky said:

sir, you posted the january map in this thread, not me. 

It was only a 7 day forecast and not 10. That was after you started the commotion.Why don’t you go somewhere else if you want to start trouble.

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

sir, you posted the january map in this thread, not me. 

Chill. It will be mild to start January.We know this. Quit saying there is an agenda. We have discussed the cold down extensively throughout this month for January. All of us know and most of us hope it will happen. However, it looks like a usual cold shot right now that last 3-5 days before relaxing. If you keep attacking quality posters, Especially Bluewave, you will find yourself ignored from many of us.

[bluewave]

Just now, Mersky said:

7 days take us into january correct???  how is posting something contrary to what you post causing trouble???  

You came in here yesterday and started posting laughing emojis after numerous posts. Are you a previous member signing up under a new name to cause trouble?

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Mersky said:

7 days take us into january correct???  how is posting something contrary to what you post causing trouble???  

Unless you want your time here to be very short I highly suggest you dial your tone back.

[bluewave]

Just now, Mersky said:

 

why are you so thinned skin???  all i did was question the call by you and others of january being warm. why the attack??

It’s only December 28th. I haven’t made any call about January yet. Read more and post less.

[bluewave]

Now back to December weather. 
 

The warm minimum temperatures  across the region yesterday put  an exclamation point on the late December warm up. Most of our stations are back close to normal now for the month. The unusually warm minimums extended from NYC up the Hudson to Albany. So both stations experienced the warmest minimum temperature of December on the 27th. Such late minimums have become more common this decade. It’s the 5 time that NYC has a warmest December minimum after the 20th. This is unusual since the average NYC minimum temperatures drop 9 degrees from the 1st to the 31st.

Warm minimums more impressive north of NYC

NYC....12-27....46...+17.2...month....-0.2

ALB.....12-27...40....+22.7...month....-0.2

NYC 2010’s December warmest minimum temperature dates

12-27-19....46

12-21-18....47

12-05-17....50

12-01-16....42

12-24-15....63

12-27-14.....44....T...25th...24th

12-22-13.....61

12-03-12.....49

12-06-11....56

12-12-19...40

 

•  

[gravitylover]

These warm minimums are really starting to bug me 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Now back to December weather. 
 

The warm minimum temperatures  across the region yesterday put  an exclamation point on the late December warm up. Most of our stations are back close to normal now for the month. The unusually warm minimums extended from NYC up the Hudson to Albany. So both stations experienced the warmest minimum temperature of December on the 27th. Such late minimums have become more common this decade. It’s the 5 time that NYC has a warmest December minimum after the 20th. This is unusual since the average NYC minimum temperatures drop 9 degrees from the 1st to the 31st.

Warm minimums more impressive north of NYC

NYC....12-27....46...+17.2...month....-0.2

ALB.....12-27...40....+22.7...month....-0.2

NYC 2010’s December warmest minimum temperature dates

12-27-19....46

12-21-18....47

12-05-17....50

12-01-16....42

12-24-15....63

12-27-14.....44....T...25th...24th

12-22-13.....61

12-03-12.....49

12-06-11....56

12-12-19...40

 

•  

2013 and 2015 with minimums in the 60's is really unbelievable...

[Brian5671]

50 minutes ago, uncle W said:

2013 and 2015 with minimums in the 60's is really unbelievable...

Especially 2015 that’s once in a lifetime type stuff 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

These warm minimums are really starting to bug me 

The clouds and higher dewpoints allowed the minimum temperature departures to exceed the maximums across the Northeast. Matches the recent theme of it being so wet. We needed that brief dry pattern in September for those record mid 90’s on October 2nd.

 

[binbisso]

Wow a negative 2.6 departure wiped out in 6 days. My call for  negative departures for December was way wrong and I made it on the 21st. No way I saw this warmth coming.  plus 9 the last 6 days and that looks to continue for the last four. This hobby can make you look bad at times and is very humbling. Anyway the first 3 weeks were very good and much better than the recent December's we had I am slightly below normal in snowfall so far. here is hoping to a better January. Kudos to those who had the warm call for December

[bluewave]

The warm up was timed pretty well with the warm MJO 5-6 phases.

 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm up was timed pretty well with the warm MJO 5-6 phases.

The theme of post 12/20 warm ups the last few years is remarkable, almost as if the MJO knew the time of year. 

Also, it seems in this day and age any monthly negative departure has to be really extreme and significant to stand up to eventual warmth that hits us almost every month, including the higher min temps as well.  The calls for an above normal December in the temp department were good calls.  However,  looking back at the last 10 years persistence forecasting would have been correct without ever considering the models, or fundamental meteorology. Thought for a brief moment winter was going to start early this year, but it was simply a head fake, part of the possible new trend of warm Octobers leading to colder Novembers and then the eventual  warm up after mid December.   

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, Mersky said:

what tone??  just because i dont agree with the warm january calls  is reason not to post???  excuse me for disagreeing.

Feb?  Is that you?

[CIK62]

The next 10 days, including today look +7, then we can get to a 6-day period of -3.

SD says that in a recent conversation with Judah Cohen, they decided  the culprit is the ionosphere when comes to the warmup.      It is just a delay to the cold coming  they felt.

[BxEngine]

The problem with final monthly departures is they often dont tell the entire story. Some (not all obviously) who are attempting to take credit for hitting the final departures correctly while also making statements in late november/early december about the entire month being benign and warm are part of the reason for the disjointed and lazy discussion that sometimes invades otherwise sound meteorological discussion. 

[binbisso]

Bluewave the next seven days the mjo is forecast to be in 7 and 8 how come we are going to be well above normal in this timeframe

[Rjay]

Less bickering, more discussion.  Be respectful.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, binbisso said:

Bluewave the next seven days the mjo is forecast to be in 7 and 8 how come we are going to be well above normal in this timeframe

There can be a lag between the MJO and its effects. But depending on the overall pattern, the results can be more in real time. So the mild start to January can be the continuation of this 5-6 influence. A cool down a few days later would be in line with 7 or even 8. Beyond that, a move back to 4-6 would cause another temperature rebound should the models be correct. But there is plenty of time to watch that. Don has an excellent discussion in the January thread.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, frd said:

The theme of post 12/20 warm ups the last few years is remarkable, almost as if the MJO knew the time of year. 

Also, it seems in this day and age any monthly negative departure has to be really extreme and significant to stand up to eventual warmth that hits us almost every month, including the higher min temps as well.  The calls for an above normal December in the temp department were good calls.  However,  looking back at the last 10 years persistence forecasting would have been correct without ever considering the models, or fundamental meteorology. Thought for a brief moment winter was going to start early this year, but it was simply a head fake, part of the possible new trend of warm Octobers leading to colder Novembers and then the eventual  warm up after mid December.   

Excellent post. That’s why the events this month were right in line in with recent experience You can see the emergence of this new pattern after 1981. But it became more pronounced in recent times.

 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures again rose into the 50s in the Middle Atlantic region. Parts of the region saw temperatures top out in the 60s. Baltimore had a high temperature of 65° and Washington, DC had a high temperature of 67°.

December will close on a generally mild note. It will also see one last storm bring a widespread 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. As a result, Allentown will very likely reach 60" precipitation for a record second consecutive year and Scranton could reach 50" for a record second consecutive year. 2019 will also rank among the 30 wettest years on record for New York City.

Through December 27, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +1.5°, Boston: +1.4°, Islip: +0.3°, New York City: -0.3°, Newark: -0.1°, Philadelphia: +0.1°, and Washington, DC: +0.7°.

A short-duration cold shot is possible late in the first week of January into the second week of January. Nevertheless, there is a growing risk that New York City and Newark could have an average temperature near or even above 40° for the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of any colder patterns.

The 18z GFS forecast the EPO to fall to an all-time record below -5.000 in the extended range. Neither the GEFS nor EPS show anything like that. Hence, the 18z GFS solution beyond 300 hours could be suspect.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO to start January, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first week of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables).

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.9°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -12.04 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.339.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 6, but warming will likely develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb toward the end of the first week of January. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted at 30 mb through most of the first week of January, but a moderate Wave 2 hit could occur at or above 10 mb leading to the upper stratospheric warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through most of the first week of January on the EPS.

On December 27, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.510 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.581.

Since 1974, there were five cases when the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the December 20-31 period, as has been the case this year. The temperature anomalies were closely tied to how much time the MJO spent in Phase 8 during that timeframe. The mean temperature for cases with more than 5 such days was 29.0° in New York City. The mean temperature for those with 5 or fewer such days was 36.1°. The overall 1981-2019 mean temperature for January 1-15 is 33.8°.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.5°.

At present, a warmer than normal January appears likely in the region.

　

[doncat]

My station Dec  record for precipitation is 8.17" set way back in 1983...Total so far is 6.80" so it's doable. This after 11 straight dry days.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of December are averaging 45degs., or about 12degs. AN.

Month to date is now  +0.2[38.3].       At this train wreck pace, December should end near +1.4[38.9].

The first 5 days of January are already averaging 43degs.

44* here at 6am      48* by 9am.         Back to 47* at Noon.  (variable and going nowhere today.)

All models have cold and some sort of snow event, but that is near Jan. 07.     "Give me Snow or give me the Hottest January ever"

[bluewave]

It’s fitting that we should get one more rain event to close out December. JFK already had its wettest December on record. You can see how wet our climate has become with the top 3 wettest Decembers since 2014.
 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2019	7.17	3
2	2014	7.04	0
3	2018	6.76	0
4	1986	6.73	0
5	2009	6.25	0
6	1969	6.16	0
7	1983	6.14	0
8	1974	6.07	0
9	1948	6.05	0
10	1996	6.00	0

[NYCweatherNOW]

GfS and Cmc have a snowstorm for January 7th timeframe. Snow is coming for sure

the geese now the models showing it

[donsutherland1]

Another wet year in much of the region is concluding. At 8 am, rain was falling in Detroit and Indianapolis. Rain was also pushing into western Pennsylvania and western Maryland.

Following the rain, Chicago and Indianapolis could approach or exceed their daily record high temperatures. Those records are: Chicago: 63°, 1984 and Indianapolis: 66°, 1889. Chicago also has a high probability of surpassing its daily record high minimum temperature of 42°, which was set in 1884.

In fitting fashion for what has been a wet year, much of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" precipitation with some locally higher amounts from the upcoming system. Central New York State into central New England, especially higher elevations, could be in line for a significant freezing rain event.

Year-to-Date Precipitation Figures and Rankings Scenarios are posted below: