NYCweatherNOW Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: No one is giving up just pointing out that major changes are needed for something decent to lock in. Next few weeks don’t look good. Beyond that is a crap shoot Next week doesn’t look good beyond that is a crap shoot you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. I'd be shocked if March/April were warm. Wut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just because the sensible weather averages out to the same over a 30 or 31 day period as another year doesnt mean anything beyond that. We have an incredible amount of data available to us, and as weather hobbyists we should be able to parse that data better than the average local news watcher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 A/O 12/27 Poughkeepsie area is still .9 degrees below normal for the month. Our normal temps this time of year are 37/18. Looking at forecast temps for next 4 days I think we will end the month normal to slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The last 4 days of December are averaging 46.7degs , or about 12degs. AN. Month to date is -0.3[37.8]. December should end near +1.4[38.9]. For those waiting for January, the first 4 days there are already averaging 44degs. All three major models are Snowless. Only a few sub-freezing days are showing up over the next 10-16 days. Cold air puts in two cameos 12/31-01/01 and 01/06-09. It may change costumes, but be reading the same lines near mid-Jan. 46* here at 6am. 47* by 9am. 49* by Noon. 50* at 1pm. 52* at 2pm. 53* at 3pm (high) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Cold weather now gets pushed back towards 1/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Cold weather now gets pushed back towards 1/7. Which model ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Does it really matter what the exact date is? All the models show a mild start to January. We now have a January thread for specific January discussion. We should put those posts in there since this is the December thread. People still want to discuss the end of December in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Mersky said: why not show the very same models 4 days later???? perhaps because they show it being cold?? thanks for proving my point. Relax. Stop thinking that everyone has an agenda. This is weather and not politics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, Mersky said: Oh look the reds are gone but of course they don’t fit the narrative or the agenda some have on here so they just ignore it Bluewave has no "narrative" or "agenda." He posts a wide range of content about the weather--cold and warm, precipitation, etc. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, Mersky said: but you only posted a certain day showing warmth and NEVER mentioned that it gets colder after. Why is that?? Why argue about January in the December thread after it’s already been pointed out that there is a January thread? Why is that?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mersky said: but you only posted a certain day showing warmth and NEVER mentioned that it gets colder after. Why is that?? You just joined yesterday and already you are derailing this thread. Specific temperature forecasts lose skill beyond beyond 5-7 days. So what is the point of posting raw day 10 temperature forecasts in the December thread. That’s what the January thread is for. Here is the raw model forecast that has been corrected for known biases. It doesn’t go out 10 days. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/28/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04 CLIMO X/N 53| 41 48| 41 52| 42 51| 36 47| 35 44| 40 46| 43 48 26 39 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mersky said: sir, you posted the january map in this thread, not me. It was only a 7 day forecast and not 10. That was after you started the commotion.Why don’t you go somewhere else if you want to start trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Mersky said: sir, you posted the january map in this thread, not me. Chill. It will be mild to start January.We know this. Quit saying there is an agenda. We have discussed the cold down extensively throughout this month for January. All of us know and most of us hope it will happen. However, it looks like a usual cold shot right now that last 3-5 days before relaxing. If you keep attacking quality posters, Especially Bluewave, you will find yourself ignored from many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, Mersky said: 7 days take us into january correct??? how is posting something contrary to what you post causing trouble??? You came in here yesterday and started posting laughing emojis after numerous posts. Are you a previous member signing up under a new name to cause trouble? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Mersky said: 7 days take us into january correct??? how is posting something contrary to what you post causing trouble??? Unless you want your time here to be very short I highly suggest you dial your tone back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just now, Mersky said: why are you so thinned skin??? all i did was question the call by you and others of january being warm. why the attack?? It’s only December 28th. I haven’t made any call about January yet. Read more and post less. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Now back to December weather. The warm minimum temperatures across the region yesterday put an exclamation point on the late December warm up. Most of our stations are back close to normal now for the month. The unusually warm minimums extended from NYC up the Hudson to Albany. So both stations experienced the warmest minimum temperature of December on the 27th. Such late minimums have become more common this decade. It’s the 5 time that NYC has a warmest December minimum after the 20th. This is unusual since the average NYC minimum temperatures drop 9 degrees from the 1st to the 31st. Warm minimums more impressive north of NYC NYC....12-27....46...+17.2...month....-0.2 ALB.....12-27...40....+22.7...month....-0.2 NYC 2010’s December warmest minimum temperature dates 12-27-19....46 12-21-18....47 12-05-17....50 12-01-16....42 12-24-15....63 12-27-14.....44....T...25th...24th 12-22-13.....61 12-03-12.....49 12-06-11....56 12-12-19...40 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 These warm minimums are really starting to bug me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Now back to December weather. The warm minimum temperatures across the region yesterday put an exclamation point on the late December warm up. Most of our stations are back close to normal now for the month. The unusually warm minimums extended from NYC up the Hudson to Albany. So both stations experienced the warmest minimum temperature of December on the 27th. Such late minimums have become more common this decade. It’s the 5 time that NYC has a warmest December minimum after the 20th. This is unusual since the average NYC minimum temperatures drop 9 degrees from the 1st to the 31st. Warm minimums more impressive north of NYC NYC....12-27....46...+17.2...month....-0.2 ALB.....12-27...40....+22.7...month....-0.2 NYC 2010’s December warmest minimum temperature dates 12-27-19....46 12-21-18....47 12-05-17....50 12-01-16....42 12-24-15....63 12-27-14.....44....T...25th...24th 12-22-13.....61 12-03-12.....49 12-06-11....56 12-12-19...40 2013 and 2015 with minimums in the 60's is really unbelievable... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 50 minutes ago, uncle W said: 2013 and 2015 with minimums in the 60's is really unbelievable... Especially 2015 that’s once in a lifetime type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: These warm minimums are really starting to bug me The clouds and higher dewpoints allowed the minimum temperature departures to exceed the maximums across the Northeast. Matches the recent theme of it being so wet. We needed that brief dry pattern in September for those record mid 90’s on October 2nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Wow a negative 2.6 departure wiped out in 6 days. My call for negative departures for December was way wrong and I made it on the 21st. No way I saw this warmth coming. plus 9 the last 6 days and that looks to continue for the last four. This hobby can make you look bad at times and is very humbling. Anyway the first 3 weeks were very good and much better than the recent December's we had I am slightly below normal in snowfall so far. here is hoping to a better January. Kudos to those who had the warm call for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The warm up was timed pretty well with the warm MJO 5-6 phases. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The warm up was timed pretty well with the warm MJO 5-6 phases. The theme of post 12/20 warm ups the last few years is remarkable, almost as if the MJO knew the time of year. Also, it seems in this day and age any monthly negative departure has to be really extreme and significant to stand up to eventual warmth that hits us almost every month, including the higher min temps as well. The calls for an above normal December in the temp department were good calls. However, looking back at the last 10 years persistence forecasting would have been correct without ever considering the models, or fundamental meteorology. Thought for a brief moment winter was going to start early this year, but it was simply a head fake, part of the possible new trend of warm Octobers leading to colder Novembers and then the eventual warm up after mid December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 hours ago, Mersky said: what tone?? just because i dont agree with the warm january calls is reason not to post??? excuse me for disagreeing. Feb? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The next 10 days, including today look +7, then we can get to a 6-day period of -3. SD says that in a recent conversation with Judah Cohen, they decided the culprit is the ionosphere when comes to the warmup. It is just a delay to the cold coming they felt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The problem with final monthly departures is they often dont tell the entire story. Some (not all obviously) who are attempting to take credit for hitting the final departures correctly while also making statements in late november/early december about the entire month being benign and warm are part of the reason for the disjointed and lazy discussion that sometimes invades otherwise sound meteorological discussion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Bluewave the next seven days the mjo is forecast to be in 7 and 8 how come we are going to be well above normal in this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Less bickering, more discussion. Be respectful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now