CIK62 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Reached 48* by me shortly before 4pm. The above maps better be right or we have little to look forward to. GFSx is +12! for the next 7 days and will wreck the BN traveling moving monthly average we have now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Took a trip to Sams Point in the Shawangunks today. Beautiful up there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Sunset after a day on which the temperature rose to 46°: 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Today, temperatures rose well into the 40s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 51°; Baltimore: 52°; Boston: 45°; Bridgeport: 47°; Harrisburg: 46°; Islip: 47°; New York City: 46°; Newark: 48°; Philadelphia: 48°; and, Washington, DC: 47°. The first night of Hanukkah will feature above normal temperatures. Tomorrow, readings will likely surge into the lower and even middle 50s across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Earlier today, Chicago had a high temperature of 52°. Following such a maximum temperature during the December 20-30, 1981-2018 period, the high temperature the following day in New York City reached 50° or above 91% of the time and 55° or above 70% of the time. The coldest maximum temperature in New York City the following day was 48°. On average, the final days of December will likely be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth could be sufficient to ensure that at least parts of the Middle Atlantic region could finish with at least a somewhat warmer than normal December. A scenario where much of the region winds up somewhat warmer than normal is not out of the question. The probability of more widespread warm anomalies has increased in recent days. Through December 21, monthly anomalies for select cities were: Baltimore: +0.3°, Boston: -0.8°, Islip: -1.4°, New York City: -2.7°, Newark: -2.1°, Philadelphia: -1.3°, and Washington, DC: -0.4°. Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold. Record warmth covered parts of central and eastern Europe today. Records included: Bucharest-Imh, Romania: 63°; Bucharest-Otopeni, Romania: 63° (tied monthly record); Burgas, Bulgaria: 68°; Tirgu Mures, Romania: 59°; and, Tulcea, Romania: 66°. Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -11.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.157. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 31, but some warming above 2 mb is possible late in the period. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December nears an end. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the remainder of December on the EPS. On December 21, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.538 (RMM). The December 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.461. Through December 20, the AO had averaged +0.878 in December. Since 1950, there were 12 cases where the AO averaged +0.500 to +1.250. The January mean temperature for New York City was 33.0°. However, six cases (50%) had temperatures 1.5° or more above that average, while five cases (42%) had temperatures 1.5° or more below that average. Put another way, this data suggests that January has the potential to either be warmer/much warmer than normal or colder/much colder than normal rather than near normal. When the January EPO had a positive average 6/8 (75%) of those cases were warmer to much warmer than normal. When the January EPO had a negative EPO average, 3/4 (75%) of those cases were colder to much colder than normal. In sum, the predominant state of the January EPO will very likely determine the January temperature outcome. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.0°. This shift in probabilities toward a warmer than normal December over the past week has been dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just drove from Westchester to Queens 37F -> 46F within 10 miles. Always amazes me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Nibor said: Took a trip to Sams Point in the Shawangunks today. Beautiful up there. It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 That impressive system in the Southeast is affecting weather around here too. Check out the gravity waves (aka transverse banding) over PA, leading to multiple reports of severe turbulence by large aircraft this evening. This has been happening on the northern fringes of the upper low the past couple of days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. Your scientific insight is so valuable in this sub forum. Thank you. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: On other forums and some meteorologists. Just the other day these tellies were favorable. MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. Only the gefs does it. Mjo isnt the only thing that should be looked at. Stop making definite predictions. You do this alot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's cool to see the lower altitude haze in the distance. This was evident in the city today, too. Despite how dry it is, aerosols are trapped near the surface due to the strong inversion and stagnant high pressure in place. The Hudson this afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Reached 48* by me shortly before 4pm. The above maps better be right or we have little to look forward to. GFSx is +12! for the next 7 days and will wreck the BN traveling moving monthly average we have now. What are you even talking about? My forecast for the next 7 days is about 5.5 degrees above normal. For me to finish above normal for the month the last 9 days of the year have to +7 AN and it looks like the 30th-31st could be BN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future. Lets cancel winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Only the gefs does it. Mjo isnt the only thing that should be looked at. Stop making definite predictions. You do this alot. The death vortex over Alaska is all I need to know that things are going to suck. The entire CONUS looks torched too. Uncertain when or if any of that cold building over Alaska comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see. Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see. Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility. Fits with the default pattern of the 2010s. It’s close the shades for a couple weeks at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 On 12/21/2019 at 12:02 PM, EasternLI said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The next 8 days are averaging 44.5degs., or 10degs. AN. The low T is beating the normal high T three times. Month to date is -2.5[36.3]. Should be about +0.9[38.4] by the 31st. 39* here at 6am. 47* by Noon. 51* by 2pm. None of the major models have any snow whatsoever now for at least 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Outside New York City, temperatures had fallen into the 30s with a number of locations reporting temperatures at or below freezing including Danbury (24°), Poughkeepsie (26°), and White Plains (32°). In Central Park, today was poised to be the first day with a low temperature at or above 40° since December 14 when the temperature bottomed out at 45°. Today will very likely see the first 50° or above reading since December 14 in New York City when the temperature hit 56°. The latest MOS guidance shows a high temperature of 52°. Further, since 1981, 92% of cases that saw Chicago record a high temperature of 52° or above (52° yesterday) saw the temperature reach or exceed 50° in New York City a day later in the December 20-30 timeframe. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 29° here this am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 All the models now show the mild Pacific pattern continuing into at least the start of January. The fast Pacific Jet continues to be a dominant theme. This has been our new stuck weather pattern going back to last winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: All the models now show the mild Pacific pattern continuing into at least the start of January. The fast Pacific Jet continues to be a dominant theme. This has been our new stuck weather pattern going back to last winter. Yes but the pattern has changed significantly with the PV now over Alaska. Combined with the existing PAC and our chances for any wintry weather are the bleakest we have seen all season next two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Yes, and I notice as I look at long range forecasts over last few days, the cold air keeps moving back a day with each new day. It is a dog chasing its tail scenario like last year Only certain statement: Next 10 days will be mild. Same as yesterday. And the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 this junk has happened before...2004-05 went to sleep the first two weeks in January before a complete change the second half...we can only hope that happens again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Interesting watching the small up and down temp variations with subtle wind variations on one's pws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 CPC called for a normal winter with above average precip. Since then the model turned bad. Wtf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 The forcing came right back to the Maritime Continent as the IOD returned to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 A nice little inversion up here this morning. Attached are the obs from KMGJ, at approx 360', and KSWF at approx 460', they are 7 or so miles away from each other but the 100' difference in elevation tells the story this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 I was at 25f this morning at my house which sits in a valley while the nearest wunderground station was at 36f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, Hitman said: I was at 25f this morning at my house which sits in a valley while the nearest wunderground station was at 36f I didn't note my actual low at home this morning yet but I know that i was down in the mid 20's when I got up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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