December 2019

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

 

Im liking january more and more by the minute...

Actually no one thought March was going to end up below normal in late February last year, since your memory is good enough for you to remember specific dates of my posts (which is quite frightening, creepy, weird stalker status), I’m sure you remember every model at that time showing raging zonal flow/RNA for March. It didn’t change until early March....

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There was actually an older gentleman who would wear shorts and swim for much of the year. He was well known around town back in the day. 

Impressive. The UPS driver at work wears shorts year round. I love wearing shorts and push the season on both ends but that’s a bit extreme IMO 

[doncat]

Low Temps last 4 days of 20,15, 20 and 19°.... Running a nice -2.8° departure now.

[bluewave]

Cold departures will begin to get smaller with the  mild finish to 2019. if the long range ensembles are reliable, then colder weather returns right around the start of the New Year.

 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/21/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  31  50| 39  53| 41  49| 39  49| 37  45| 38  46| 44  52| 48 27 40

 

[dmillz25]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cold departures will begin to get smaller with the  mild finish to 2019. if the long range ensembles are reliable, then colder weather returns right around the start of the New Year.

 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/21/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28|SUN CLIMO
 N/X  31  50| 39  53| 41  49| 39  49| 37  45| 38  46| 44  52| 48 27 40

 

I feel like there’s always a cold snap right around new years

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I feel like there’s always a cold snap right around new years

It looks like the cold really builds around Alaska over the next 10 days. Models begin to send it SE right around January 1st. They show the ridge building south of Alaska and over the North Atlantic. Hopefully, the day 11-15 forecasts show some improvement over the last few months. 

[ForestHillWx]

It is 29 degrees here. I guess it's mild when compared to my high temp of 16 on Wednesday. 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

It is 29 degrees here. I guess it's mild when compared to my high temp of 16 on Wednesday. 

Long Island came out of the deep freeze a little earlier than the rest of the region. Highs near 40 today in the warmer spots.

ISLIP NY Dec 21 Climate: Hi: 39 Lo: 20 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the cold really builds around Alaska over the next 10 days. Models begin to send it SE right around January 1st. They show the ridge building south of Alaska and over the North Atlantic. Hopefully, the day 11-15 forecasts show some improvement over the last few months. 

I wonder if there is a negative relationship between the EPO and NAO. They never seem to be in tandem i.e negative EPO negative NAO.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if there is a negative relationship between the EPO and NAO. They never seem to be in tandem i.e negative EPO negative NAO.

There are many different possible combinations of the teleconnection indices. March 2018 was the last strong -EPO and -NAO pattern during DJFM. It was an epic month with Islip picking up an historic 31.8 inches of snow.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Wearing shorts to go for a run, ok...now if someone wears shorts to sit on a bench and watch the surf at 33 degrees, that would be a hardy soul LOL

How about standing on a party boat offshore with frozen snot on your lip? With a stiff wind and being tossed up and down? Would that count?

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are many different possible combinations of the teleconnection indices. March 2018 was the last strong -EPO and -NAO pattern during DJFM. It was an epic month with Islip picking up an historic 31.8 inches of snow.

It was far from epic in my region.....

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

How about standing on a party boat offshore with frozen snot on your lip? With a stiff wind and being tossed up and down? Would that count?

Whiting, Ling or both? As always ...

[NorthShoreWx]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island came out of the deep freeze a little earlier than the rest of the region. Highs near 40 today in the warmer spots.

ISLIP NY Dec 21 Climate: Hi: 39 Lo: 20 Precip: 0.0 Snow: 0.0

Must have been a wind off the water.  High temp here today was 34.  AM low was 23.  Current is 29.

rest of this week:

12/16  32  37

12/17  31  34

12/18  22  42

12/19  16  26

12/20  20  33

12/21  23  34 (through 5:45PM)

 

[doncat]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are many different possible combinations of the teleconnection indices. March 2018 was the last strong -EPO and -NAO pattern during DJFM. It was an epic month with Islip picking up an historic 31.8 inches of snow.

Had 24.9" here that March.

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if there is a negative relationship between the EPO and NAO. They never seem to be in tandem i.e negative EPO negative NAO.

To an extent.  If you have a “pig ridge” massive EPO ala 93-94 or 13-14 then in essence it’s nearly impossible to have a -NAO.  You can have a -AO though in that setup because the ridge can extend so far north it’s poking more or less near the pole and causing higher heights there.  However, an EPO as strong as we saw for long durations of those 2 seasons more or less correlates to lower heights in the area across NE Canada towards Baffin Island.  Any semblance of a -NAO would be very east based   

[Cfa]

39 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Must have been a wind off the water.  High temp here today was 34.  AM low was 23.  Current is 29.

rest of this week:

12/16  32  37

12/17  31  34

12/18  22  42

12/19  16  26

12/20  20  33

12/21  23  34 (through 5:45PM)

 

My high was 40, same low temp of 23. Currently 31.

12/16 - 31  37

12/17 - 31  35

12/18 - 22  41

12/19 - 17  27

12/20 - 20  35

12/21 - 23  40

Just a few miles south of you.

[uncle W]

40 minutes ago, doncat said:

Had 24.9" here that March.

it was an epic March on Staten Island in 2018...February 2018 was March like and March 2018 was February like...

[rclab]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Impressive. The UPS driver at work wears shorts year round. I love wearing shorts and push the season on both ends but that’s a bit extreme IMO 

During the cold season and at my age, wearing shots is definitely not a good idea. Not when your trying to protect home or whatever is left of  it. As always ....

[SI Mailman]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Impressive. The UPS driver at work wears shorts year round. I love wearing shorts and push the season on both ends but that’s a bit extreme IMO 

My shorts threshold carrying the mail is 60 degrees.  Wore shorts on Christmas Eve 2015.  My favorite Christmas rush season weather wise in my postal career.  

[donsutherland1]

A milder pattern began overspreading the region today after a cold start. Overall, the final days of December will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth could be sufficient to ensure that at least parts of the Middle Atlantic region could finish with at least a somewhat warmer than normal December. A scenario where much of the region winds up somewhat warmer than normal is not out of the question.

Through December 20, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.5°, Boston: -0.6°, New York City: -2.5°, Newark: -1.8°, Philadelphia: -1.0°, and Washington, DC: -0.2°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or comes south and eastward into the region just after the start of 2020. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

In much of Europe, the long wait for winter goes on. Both the EPS and GEFS are in strong agreement that the first week of January will likely remain warmer to much warmer than normal in much of Europe. At present, it is likely that Europe will see a warmer than normal January with the greatest warmth in central Europe. Some parts of western Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, Spain and Portugal, have a greater chance of having near normal temperatures.

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -14.38 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.248.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 30, but a brief period of some warming above 3 mb could develop toward the end of the forecast period before fading. Moderate Wave 2 activity will dissipate toward the end of December after leading to some temporary upper stratospheric warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the remainder of December on the EPS.

On December 20, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.452 (RMM). The December 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.545.

Through December 20, the AO had averaged +0.878 in December. Since 1950, there were 12 cases where the AO averaged +0.500 to +1.250. The January mean temperature for New York City was 33.0°. However, six cases (50%) had temperatures 1.5° or more above that average, while five cases (42%) had temperatures 1.5° or more below that average. Put another way, this data suggests that January has the potential to either be warmer/much warmer than normal or colder/much colder than normal rather than near normal. When the January EPO had a positive average 6/8 (75%) of those cases were warmer to much warmer than normal. When the January EPO had a negative EPO average, 3/4 (75%) of those cases were colder to much colder than normal. In sum, the predominant state of the January EPO will very likely determine the January temperature outcome.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 45% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature just above 37.5°. This shift in probabilities toward a warmer than normal December over the past week has been dramatic.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

It was far from epic in my region.....

That’s why storm track is so Important. This decade has had numerous events that produced very uneven totals across the region. Sometimes the most extreme storms have big variations over relatively short distances. 

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Impressive. The UPS driver at work wears shorts year round. I love wearing shorts and push the season on both ends but that’s a bit extreme IMO 

My boss at the bike shop I managed in the city loved wearing shorts year round because he thought it showed how much he loved riding bikes in good weather. He'd show up when it was 20 degrees wearing shorts. There's another bike shop owner in Brooklyn that also wears shorts year round for the same reason.

[CIK62]

The next 7 days could be near +10 and put us near +1 or more, as the month fumbles to its end.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 7 days could be near +10 and put us near +2, as the month fumbles to its end.

+10 ? I doubt it. My highs the next week are forecast to be 41,47,42, 40, 38,39,43 and the average high is 38. That's AN but not +10. This after 5 consecutive days of temps below freezing. So far this month Poughkeepsie area is averaging 3 degrees BN. My best guess is by the end of the month we are normal or slightly below. 

[gravitylover]

I don't know about +10 but if the lows aren't so low I could see getting to normal.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

I don't know about +10 but if the lows aren't so low I could see getting to normal.

Yes, I'm taking that into consideration. If the next 10 days average +6 we get to normal. 

[doncat]

With a mainly dry airmass,  I think we continue to radiate well for many days this week so nightime temps may be closer to normal than  daytime high temps...Also we all know about those dubious temp projections by now.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 44 degs, or about 9degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.7[36.2].           Should be about  +0.5[38.3] by the 30th.    40* by Noon.      44* by 2pm.

31* here at 6am.         33* by 9am, and I am afraid there is evidence that my location may not see freezing again this year.

Little to choose from now for your Christmas Day high T gift:       GFS   43,      GEM/EURO   42.      

Still an ugly looking +160M or more on Christmas Day.       Good for a +10, not just +3. I would say,  w/o checking other factors.

No freezing stuff of any grade seems even possible till the Jan. 03-06 period.     The only snow is a Day-10 T on the EURO.

Given what is already on the books, the remaining 10 days of the month need to be just +5.7 for December to break even.

(21/31)(-2.7)  +  (10/31)X   =   0.                          X = 5.7

[bluewave]

In any event, the departures as of the 21st will moderate over the last 10 days of the month. Areas to the south and east of NYC don’t have that much of a cold departure. The biggest heat island locations of NYC and LGA have some of the coldest departures. So there was some decent CAA from the north into NYC. The Northeast was one of the few cold pockets in a mild December across the CONUS.
 

EWR...-2.1

NYC....-2.7

LGA....-2.5

JFK....-2.5

BDR....-2.0

ISP......-1.4

PHL....-1.3