SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. Hopefully if GFS is right it's at that low amplification. Euro goes into the cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Ahead of another push of colder air, the temperature reached 50° in Central Park. Over the next 7-10 days, temperatures will exhibit wide variability. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +4.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.967. No significant stratospheric warming appears likely through December 15. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation. On December 5, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.630 (RMM). The December 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.485. After a generally cold first week of December, warmer conditions will likely return. There is a chance that the second week of December could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, cold shots will continue to occur on a periodic basis. Moreover, the third week of the month could turn colder and possibly for a more sustained period of time, especially if the EPO goes negative. Despite the periodic cold shots and possible longer-duration period of cold, no snowstorms appear likely through at least the next 7-14 days in much of the region. Lake effect regions, upstate New York, and northern New England could see additional accumulations. The possibility could also exist for rain to end as a period of snow or flurries as storms depart and colder air returns. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Average out the two and see what you get. You need the ECFS model for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is -5.2[36.3]. Should be around -1.6[38.5] by the 15th. 34* here at 6am. 37* by Noon. 40* by 3pm, The major models are full of 50-degree days and loads of rain over the next 10 to 15 days. Just a T to 2" near the 11th., which promises to melt or wash away at once anyway. Yesterday in talking about the LR EURO, I neglected to note that the CFS has the opposite look---every traveling 30-Day period, including the one ending Jan. 20, is BN for most of the country, it seems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Portions of the area could see a 40 degree drop in temperatures from late Tuesday into early Thursday. A 42 degree drop in 36 hours for Newark is the December record set in 1990. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=36&month=dec&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is -5.2[36.3]. Should be around -1.6[38.5] by the 15th. 34* here at 6am. The major models are full of 50-degree days and loads of rain over the next 10 to 15 days. Just a T to 2" near the 11th., which promises to melt or wash away at once anyway. Yesterday in talking about the LR EURO, I neglected to note that the CFS has the opposite look---every traveling 30-Day period, including the one ending Jan. 20, is BN for most of the country, it seems. The week 2-3 forecast on the CFSv2 (-3.5 degree C average anomaly) could be overdone. It’s an outlier relative to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Portions of the area could see a 40 degree drop in temperatures from late Tuesday into early Thursday. A 42 degree drop in 36 hours for Newark is the December record set in 1990. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=36&month=dec&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png It’s a strong Arctic front. Hopefully, the record will fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Mjo on the euro and gefs bring it into the COD after phase 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Mjo on the euro and gefs bring it into the COD after phase 7. What does that mean in terms of snow and cold in our area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Flurries are ongoing here, so I've clenched the 7 consecutive days of flakes falling. It's finally at the point where even the GP is taking notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 41 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: What does that mean in terms of snow and cold in our area? Muted warmup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Flurries are ongoing here, so I've clenched the 7 consecutive days of flakes falling. It's finally at the point where even the GP is taking notice. Saw your post and said “That son of a bitch!” Thought the streak may have ended here yesterday...but no, flurries here as well currently. Mark me up on the big board for 7 days in a row as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Saw your post and said “That son of a bitch!” Thought the streak may have ended here yesterday...but no, flurries here as well currently. Mark me up on the big board for 7 days in a row as well. Easily the snowiest first week of December on record for Albany. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 2019-12-07 24.5 1 2 2003-12-07 19.2 0 3 1977-12-07 12.4 0 4 1902-12-07 10.3 0 5 1926-12-07 10.2 0 6 1901-12-07 10.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Easily the snowiest first week of December on record for Albany. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 2019-12-07 24.5 1 2 2003-12-07 19.2 0 3 1977-12-07 12.4 0 4 1902-12-07 10.3 0 5 1926-12-07 10.2 0 6 1901-12-07 10.0 0 7” at the stake this morning so it’s been a nice streak...too bad it has to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Interesting. Strong high slipping to the east. Weak Upper level low in Texas . Will watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Interesting. Strong high slipping to the east. Weak Upper level low in Texas . Will watch this Looks much better for midweek also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks much better for midweek also You are right. Way different look. Digging much better too. Next system right behind it. Warm verbatim but a good start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 23 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: You are right. Way different look. Digging much better too. Next system right behind it. Warm verbatim but a good start Cmc is alot better also with the anafront. We really should watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 12z GGEM is actually giving the entire tri-state a 5 to 8 inch snowfall tuesday night into wednesday as rain changes to snow with the front. I know these rain to snow situations don't usually work out that well here though, so I'm guessing the model is overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: 12z GGEM is actually giving the entire tri-state a 5 to 8 inch snowfall tuesday night into wednesday as rain changes to snow with the front. I know these rain to snow situations don't usually work out that well here though, so I'm guessing the model is overdoing it. It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow. As always, timing critical on the cold and moisture intersection. If it is indeed a separate piece of energy behind the front, it could be interesting. For now, keep expectations low regardless of individual runs until we establish higher model solution continuity and consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: As always, timing critical on the cold and moisture intersection. If it is indeed a separate piece of energy behind the front, it could be interesting. For now, keep expectations low regardless of individual runs until we establish higher model solution continuity and consistency. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Very volatile mid and long-range pattern right now. What I like is cold air is close by and very active pattern with both the northern and southern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's a wave riding the front . It's not your typical rain to backend snow. It is rain changing to snow though. I watched the GGEM color animation, and it goes from rain to rain/sleet/snow mix to snow in a short period of time on the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, binbisso said: Very volatile mid and long-range pattern right now. What I like is cold air is close by and very active pattern with both the northern and southern stream. Potential is there with volatility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Pretty nippy today. 36 currently with a light northwest breeze. Going into the low 20s tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 For the 11th/14th snow chance the EURO is a T, GFS 6", CMC 5". Any snow should be washed away anyway. The cold air at the surface is lagging behind the 850mb level. Where is DT on this, since N.Carolina and Virginia, his venue, seem to have a better chance than we do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Not to promote any false hope..but take a look Can't recall the last time we had a 1045mb (strong) High pressure area in December like this.... Can it help slow and expand the precip shield , till the cold push comes in? Lets see what shakes out! whistle dixie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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