NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Go!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Gfs looks amazing again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs looks amazing again. Man this omega block looks beautiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 I mentioned something to this effect a while back. These guys take it a step further. My thoughts were, and still are, that the warm phases are somewhat muted by this. Regardless, nice to see it being discussed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Any word on the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Any word on the 18z Euro? It only goes out to hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 25 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: It only goes out to hour 90 I’m waiting for the 0z tonight I’m curious to how much a potential this storm really is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 EPS goes out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 GFS really has a complex setup for the early December storm. 36* and Rain to 46* and Rain to 26* with 5" of tail end Snow. Total precipitation is 2". This evolution looks like a long shot and I bet something simpler actually evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 GFS really has a complex setup for the early December storm. 36* and Rain to 46* and Rain to 26* with 5" of tail end Snow. Total precipitation is 2". This evolution looks like a long shot and I bet something simpler actually evolves.Always does.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 At this range I’d rather the GFS target SE VA with heavy snow. Nice eye candy but that’s about all it’s worth at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Icon is very similar to gfs shows a decent hit! Snow to rain to heavy snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gfs looks colder at the onset starts everyone as snow Sunday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 48 minutes ago, jm1220 said: At this range I’d rather the GFS target SE VA with heavy snow. Nice eye candy but that’s about all it’s worth at this point. Yup. We've lost threats with less than 72 hours to go before. I will pay attention if its still there on Friday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yup. We've lost threats with less than 72 hours to go before. I will pay attention if its still there on Friday Gfs much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs much weaker Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy Yeah bc I'm sure the 150hr GFS will verify exactly like that. Suppression that far south is unlikely due to the very far north primary. A secondary coastal wouldn't get further south than the Delmarva. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 33 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Not only weaker but major suppression. Heights crashing out ahead and baroclinic zone forcing Southeast with strong confluence and nothing to force this bad boy to go negative. The 00z goofus was for the fishies. Enjoy Awesome, suppression!! From the GFS that’s a good sign. (Whether this happens who knows but I’d wager quite a bit it doesn’t) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. I suspect this will be a brief period of snow at the tail end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 hours ago, psv88 said: Yup. We've lost threats with less than 72 hours to go before. I will pay attention if its still there on Friday Only problem is most people will just go with what the models show on Wednesday and make their plans for the holiday weekend based on that. Until these models get better in the 5-7 day range and even beyond that, meteorologists will keep the reputation they have with the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gefs looks pretty good. Redevelopment off the MD coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Aleutian low / +PNA on the eps extended again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I suspect this will be a brief period of snow at the tail end of the storm. Yes but it may snow at the onset too now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area. Not to mention it looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Yes but it may snow at the onset too now oh that sounds better. I wonder where the best location in the east would be to get the most snow with this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 27 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area. Not to mention it looks warm The primary is in the lower Midwest and it has to redevelop due to the 50/50 type low. It's not a lakes cutter at all. The secondary could even move ESE as it develops due to the strong confluence up north. The strong high to the north would lead to good surface cold as long as the track is favorable. Models will shift further south with this. Only issue is that the system could end up disjointed as the primary get shredded. Would really need the secondary to rapidly intensify for the storm to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like a lakes cutter to me, not buying the redevelopment, better shot would be NE of the area. Not to mention it looks warm What ? There is blocking to the north. This has to redevelop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 8 hours ago, jm1220 said: The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that. Yeah I can’t think of anything that did that either. That’s why I think over time we could see this thing just look more weak and strung out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Tellies look much better this morning. AO spike is short and crashes quickly; PNA rises; NAO moves similar to AO with quick rise and then falls back to near neutral... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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