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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a clipper moving into the ne. The gfs has a southern steam system coming out of the sw. How does that "verify" what the gfs shows?

He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....

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Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow.

Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if we are trending to a SWFE deal next week. I know Will made a point about the short wave being so far west this morning. I feel like something like that is in the cards.

Not sure I see how we're going to get a low to really go west personally ..  I may be in the minority on that - dunno.  

But, the flow seems progressive and with the hidden trend to neutralize and possibly even dip the NAO ...that starts stressing a Lakes position.  interesting...

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie....

No one asked you. I like to talk to people who have a clue what's going on. Euro did trend towards the gfs. Maybe you or others dont think so but others I have spoke with think so.

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if we are trending to a SWFE deal next week. I know Will made a point about the short wave being so far west this morning. I feel like something like that is in the cards.

The vortmax might have even trended further west today. That's causing an issue with the qpf too. We're not getting that big WCB smashing into the cold high like we'd normally want to see on a big front ender....instead, its weak overrunning precip so we get these 1-3" type solutions changing to a bit of sleet and freezing rain. Sfc is frigid but the qpf just isn't there for a big event. Maybe we trend that vort a little better in the coming days. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

No one asked you. I like to talk to people who have a clue what's going on. Euro did trend towards the gfs. Maybe you or others dont think so but others I have spoke with think so.

sorry man but I have to disagree. 

1) the euro is not a Miller B. 

2) Saying the Euro trended towards the GFS (or even if it was the GFS trending towards the Euro) is pretty insignificant...that's alluding to and indicating that "the one model is correct". This is still in the time range where forecast models can be very chaotic and susceptible to massive anomalies. While there are signals and have been signals for a much colder pattern around this time...it's not entirely set in stone yet. This period does seem highly volatile (volatile here virtually referring to the changes which are forecast to begin occurring across the PAC) but that doesn't necessarily correlate to a storm. 

We can easily see these models relax with this notion of the PV lobe being displaced at our latitude...that's virtually going to be the driver at this stage as to whether or not we get this cold or set up with a storm chance. I don't think EPO/PNA/NAO fields are in favor yet to be the driver for displacing cold.  

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48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow.

Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol

Sell big s stream energy.

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38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

you'd think someone was trolling

Why do you always put the “confused emoji” on people’s posts?   You put that on, when what they are saying is incredibly reasonable, and has model support?  
 

Really, What the he’ll is your deal??   Are You just constantly trying to go contrary to what everything is showing, or what the current topic of conversation is?  
Peeps are trying to like you, and accept you here, yet you constantly are making incredibly ignorant posts, and the sarcasm is just OLD NOW. 
 

C’mon man, stop being a Jerk all the time.  You Seem to know your stuff, so start contributing positively please. 

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43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If we’re going to start flirting with subzero readings I’d like to get a few inches of snow on the ground to insulate some of my plants.

The silver lining (probably corroded) is that arctic cold over bare ground might take out a lot of mice and voles, either directly or by exposing the critters to extra hungry predators.  Then maybe, just maybe, there will be a lot fewer ticks around next year.

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