snowman19 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's a clipper moving into the ne. The gfs has a southern steam system coming out of the sw. How does that "verify" what the gfs shows? He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow. Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder if we are trending to a SWFE deal next week. I know Will made a point about the short wave being so far west this morning. I feel like something like that is in the cards. Not sure I see how we're going to get a low to really go west personally .. I may be in the minority on that - dunno. But, the flow seems progressive and with the hidden trend to neutralize and possibly even dip the NAO ...that starts stressing a Lakes position. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s trying to say the Euro is trending towards the op GFS at day 10 if you could believe it. And he wonders why he’s called a weenie.... No one asked you. I like to talk to people who have a clue what's going on. Euro did trend towards the gfs. Maybe you or others dont think so but others I have spoke with think so. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its not a miller b. You are dishonest. Did 0z have it ? This run is light years better. Eps also trended in the right direction That's all we have at this point. It's all about timing issues like it is always is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Monday has potential too for a rather impressive severe wx event in the Gulf coast...could have potential for several tornadic supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder if we are trending to a SWFE deal next week. I know Will made a point about the short wave being so far west this morning. I feel like something like that is in the cards. The vortmax might have even trended further west today. That's causing an issue with the qpf too. We're not getting that big WCB smashing into the cold high like we'd normally want to see on a big front ender....instead, its weak overrunning precip so we get these 1-3" type solutions changing to a bit of sleet and freezing rain. Sfc is frigid but the qpf just isn't there for a big event. Maybe we trend that vort a little better in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Bottom line is, It’s Active and there’s cold to work with/close by. Good times ahead. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Bottom line is, It’s Active and there’s cold to work with/close by. Good times ahead. Agree Now back to the gym for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: No one asked you. I like to talk to people who have a clue what's going on. Euro did trend towards the gfs. Maybe you or others dont think so but others I have spoke with think so. sorry man but I have to disagree. 1) the euro is not a Miller B. 2) Saying the Euro trended towards the GFS (or even if it was the GFS trending towards the Euro) is pretty insignificant...that's alluding to and indicating that "the one model is correct". This is still in the time range where forecast models can be very chaotic and susceptible to massive anomalies. While there are signals and have been signals for a much colder pattern around this time...it's not entirely set in stone yet. This period does seem highly volatile (volatile here virtually referring to the changes which are forecast to begin occurring across the PAC) but that doesn't necessarily correlate to a storm. We can easily see these models relax with this notion of the PV lobe being displaced at our latitude...that's virtually going to be the driver at this stage as to whether or not we get this cold or set up with a storm chance. I don't think EPO/PNA/NAO fields are in favor yet to be the driver for displacing cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Agree Now back to the gym for me. Heading there myself in a half hour. I like the look coming up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 What’s up with all the fighting lately? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Heading there myself in a half hour. I like the look coming up... Nice block on the gfs and euro. AO and NAO heading in the right direction. Just need the pna to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 It will be fun to get to track some severe wx Monday!!! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s up with all the fighting lately? Egg nog 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Well... one thing is for sure... these wave saturated progressive flows certainly keeps one their toes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: PNA from hell on the euro. I buy that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Despite the rather significant differences between the GFS/euro in the pattern configuration around that time, the one consistent feature between the two is the lobe of PV which becomes displaced towards our latitude. For whatever reason which is beyond my knowledge, the GFS is quite aggressive with southern stream energy while obviously the euro has none. Kinda recalling last winter and the past few times we had some PV lobes get into the U.S. I don't recall having much southern stream energy to work with. Anyways, at the very worst, if we are to get a frigid cold snap it would likely some with a clipper system which should give us a chance for snow. Anyways though...let's get through Mon/Tues first lol Sell big s stream energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 EPS mean looked icy for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS mean looked icy for SNE? Nice cold damming sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Need a stronger SLP, That's a crap weak look up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Oh o. If this has enough juice and doesn’t get sheared, trouble lurks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: What’s up with all the fighting lately? you'd think someone was trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I would take that, What a freezer at the end of that run, Yikes If we’re going to start flirting with subzero readings I’d like to get a few inches of snow on the ground to insulate some of my plants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: If we’re going to start flirting with subzero readings I’d like to get a few inches of snow on the ground to insulate some of my plants. Yeah, We don't need frost getting down deep with no cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I would take that, What a freezer at the end of that run, Yikes Freeze em up and lock em down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS mean looked icy for SNE? Let’s bring some down !! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: you'd think someone was trolling Why do you always put the “confused emoji” on people’s posts? You put that on, when what they are saying is incredibly reasonable, and has model support? Really, What the he’ll is your deal?? Are You just constantly trying to go contrary to what everything is showing, or what the current topic of conversation is? Peeps are trying to like you, and accept you here, yet you constantly are making incredibly ignorant posts, and the sarcasm is just OLD NOW. C’mon man, stop being a Jerk all the time. You Seem to know your stuff, so start contributing positively please. 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, dendrite said: If we’re going to start flirting with subzero readings I’d like to get a few inches of snow on the ground to insulate some of my plants. The silver lining (probably corroded) is that arctic cold over bare ground might take out a lot of mice and voles, either directly or by exposing the critters to extra hungry predators. Then maybe, just maybe, there will be a lot fewer ticks around next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s bring some down !! I could use a couple trees to come down on the property, let’s do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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