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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the gfs had us in the upper 30s during the dryslot in the CNE blizzard and how did that play out? Juice this up some more, likely, and sound the ice alarms.

GFS gets coastal CT to 50 lol...don't think so with that track. 

Plenty of room too for this to get more juiced. Pretty good jet dynamics and nice developing jet streak 

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31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What's the definition of significant icing? Pretty quick analysis of 12z GFS & GGEM puts most locals at ~0.25" qpf of potential freezing rain.

Significant?... probably varies, relative to the operator of the vehicle that's pirouetting down the highway before ending up in a heap of twinkling red and blue Christmas celebration amid the center median ...while throngs of backed up demography rubber neck by gawking.

.01" of icing outta do the trick -

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By the way... this may be under-the-radar ( if perhaps also overstating the threat...) but that just on the surface (pun intended..), the Euro's looks like a pretty decent isollabric wind potential Sunday morning.  

Low is deepening madly as it passes directly over head, and then move rapidly into NNE. That wind is likely to be almost normal to the isobars and really rushing into the back/underside of the cyclostrophic region if that does that. 

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42 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What's the definition of significant icing? Pretty quick analysis of 12z GFS & GGEM puts most locals at ~0.25" qpf of potential freezing rain.

Significant Icing is defined as icing in your area.  Icing happening somewhere else is minor icing.  It is similar to the definitions for major and minor surgery.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

The pattern is more amplified out west and it does show a Miller B into Maine.  It is slowly coming on board. I'm going to bump this when the euro latches on.

It's a clipper moving into the ne. The gfs has a southern steam system coming out of the sw. How does that "verify" what the gfs shows?

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The major timing in the models for the day 10-11 storm is when the PV is trying to split at hour 144, the ridging in the west and in the arctic tries to smash the PV low but it doesn't split and instead gets shoved into the Northeastern US.  Just something to monitor the next 10 days.  Oh and the EURO has no southern impulse of significance like John (TyphoonTip) said.

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