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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold. 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold. 

Yeah...that’s starting to show up on the extended forecasts. Hopefully we have some snow on the ground to at least make the chill festive.  

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... 

That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it.   

 

I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too 

The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. 

Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019.   Can it happen.. perhaps.  But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. 

Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019.   Can it happen.. perhaps.  But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing

 

Just now, dendrite said:

Toss is like a hot tub salad.

I hope it doesn't happen. I'm freezing just looking at it. 

Looks like the record lowest at 850 for Dec 23 is around -20C. 

This would be a pretty record shattering cold airmass lol. 

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