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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

From Anthony Masiello (HM):

Deep Arctic Air will return to the rest of the CONUS when the West Pacific Warm Pool starts to reassert itself. Currently, the strong height gradient and zonal wave flux is preventing a more serious showing in the WPO/EPO domain. It can and will get much worse.

 

He has been deadly this month. Crushing all the pig ridge and warm month ideas 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's been a torch month outside New England. Most things have been working out across the country. 

Thank you very much ... 

I realize y'all are talking about something else entirely .. But, this concentrated bastion of weather-related, social media "enthusiasts," it seems at times have  no idea how enabled they are. Posting perception that are grown from those faux soils, and thus and ripe for rude awakenings. 

This weird cold node-ing that's been going on around this region of the world, has been doing so frankly since 2001 ... I've pointed this out on several occasions over the years, but more so than less gave up.  I guess it's either too uninteresting, or, delusion penetrating ( I like the latter) but this climate from the Lakes to NE and SE Canada,  has been a cold nucleus targeting western Maine... 

Somewhat tongue-in-cheek..but, but carries an element of truth. Some how, some way, the planetary circulation et al has has been persistently off-setting this region, such that we've been warmer than normal, but less so comparing the rest of the planets on-going concern. ...At times, down right significantly below, as well.  Those Dec-so-far CONUS blow torch with a purple dipole over  NE fits right in with that ( now ) multi-decadal motif.   So persistently is that motif that I've long begun to wonder if it, in itself, is a permanent GW fixture until the Hadley Cell finally engulfs our latitude too ...and that draws out an entirely new paradigm when that happens ..in how many decades -   

 

 

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Man ... what a pattern blow-up attempt by the models overnight.   

There was about an ~ 25% continuity failure in the operational Euro from 12z yesterday; at the time, I thought was still within the noise expectation considering D 6, but that's now about 80% break-down comparing the previous 'total' ..what does that come out too at 4 cycles a day... oh, 20 cycles of persistence.  

Jesus, 20 cycles of moderate snow persistent implications could not survive the pass into the outer temporal edge of the medium range.  Interesting.  

The GFS is still playing around with that thing.. it's flatter with it. It's hard to tell what is triggering it's lower tropospheric wave featuring, tho.  It has an open wave with an impressive wind max doing a 500 mb version of a Lakes cut, but...it's got a surface wave suppressed S by the highly sloped/BL cold resistance, where the mean polar boundary so far displaced to the S, that it's not abundantly clear that the Lake cutting S/W could even be responsible for it's surface wave!  Weird.   There is a lot of excited mid and upper air velocities in the flow around the western OV/TV and up through NY and over us through the period, so, ...it's plausible if not possible we're looking at two separate entity drivers altogether.  The Lakes thing isn't responsible and is too far removed...and the OV to NE wave we see for next Tuesday is in fact merely a WAA wave that is getting some hydrostatic kick-back by those faster wind fields...  I guess I'm spit ballin' a little, trying to figure out how we can get that Tuesday deal ( or more precisely, the GFS ) to be right over the Euro...  

I did mentioned yesterday that the Euro has had seemingly more difficulty maintaining features and events ... passing them from the D7 into mid range, comparing the GFS at times - not all the time.  It's interesting that it goes the other way, too - irony.  

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All in all... now through xmass still appears to be a velocity saturated maelstrom of teleconnector lost events that are hard to track, and probably favor icing scenarios. 

That doesn't mean it won't snow

That doesn't mean there won't be bombs

It just means - for me - adjust expecations along the other end of the probability spectrum. 

Fast flows also put determinism at a premium, anyway, ..perhaps the overnight particularly annoying flavor of continuity shift ( heh ) is just that playing out.  What's the tally on Euro "bring it backs" ??   Like, the GFS used to always notoriously lose events then bring them back. Does the Euro do this too - I don't even know.

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Pretty good signal this far out on the EPS. 1/2"+ liquid SSNE right now

Capture.JPG.9d0634eee92d1214d636c8601981adb7.JPG

OH yeah -hahaha.  I forgot to look at the ensemble means, et al - 

I figured on the way to work ...just had that feeling for some reason, you know?  And yup! 

anyway... maybe the ensemble means will lend some sanity to the mayhem of this continuity shit that has me scratching head.  

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Honestly I don't know how Pivotal even gets away with, they must pay substantially more for the ECMWF data than other sites with a pay wall do. It's hurting the ECMWFs bottom line when a site posts it for free for everyone, even if they themselves are paying for it. It means less people will pay for other sites for ECMWF data which then in turn in less sites with pay ECMWF to get their data. I don't know exactly how it works with free EC data but that's my logical assumption on it.

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54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thank you very much ... 

I realize y'all are talking about something else entirely .. But, this concentrated bastion of weather-related, social media "enthusiasts," it seems at times have  no idea how enabled they are. Posting perception that are grown from those faux soils, and thus and ripe for rude awakenings. 

This weird cold node-ing that's been going on around this region of the world, has been doing so frankly since 2001 ... I've pointed this out on several occasions over the years, but more so than less gave up.  I guess it's either too uninteresting, or, delusion penetrating ( I like the latter) but this climate from the Lakes to NE and SE Canada,  has been a cold nucleus targeting western Maine... 

Somewhat tongue-in-cheek..but, but carries an element of truth. Some how, some way, the planetary circulation et al has has been persistently off-setting this region, such that we've been warmer than normal, but less so comparing the rest of the planets on-going concern. ...At times, down right significantly below, as well.  Those Dec-so-far CONUS blow torch with a purple dipole over  NE fits right in with that ( now ) multi-decadal motif.   So persistently is that motif that I've long begun to wonder if it, in itself, is a permanent GW fixture until the Hadley Cell finally engulfs our latitude too ...and that draws out an entirely new paradigm when that happens ..in how many decades -   

 

 

The giant melting ice cube that is Greenland is keeping this region cooler than the surrounding regions for now... Lookout when the shelf melts completely!

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I see people already writing this off based on the GFS. I don't get it.

The GFS is horrendous with SWFEs beyond 84-90.  It sometimes might have the general track idea right but it usually has everyone south of BDL raining for the entire storm or snow for 1 hour.  Once inside that range it’ll usually start showing the front end snows 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There's a decent Davis Straits block next week for that storm.

Congrats SNE.

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land.  I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week.  If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks?  I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating.

Its a legitimate concern, Our areas have been in no mans land on all these Threats/Events, Far north has done well and the south, We have been stuck in between.

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

The giant melting ice cube that is Greenland is keeping this region cooler than the surrounding regions for now... Lookout when the shelf melts completely!

yup next decade...when 43 deg C summers in Paris is the norm and regularly sends billion-ton-ice-melting surges NW toward Greenland.

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