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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Icy

Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look.  More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south.  EPS looks nice for snow.

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look.  More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south.  EPS looks nice for snow.

I think it’s probably a 6-10”snow  event with ice sandwich in middle 

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I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land.  I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week.  If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks?  I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating.

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15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land.  I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week.  If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks?  I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating.

It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. 

Yea. .. I don't foresee another warm system, but could be a mixed bag..

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40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land.  I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week.  If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks?  I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating.

Any of that would be later in the season...this will be transient in nature. 

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. 

Don't blocking scenarios sometimes look temporary but then persist?  Sort of like the EPO block from several years ago.  We have had a tendency to see the 50-50 low show up this year.  Maybe this blocking persists, especially if the AO tanks.  I think Don S has data on how when the AO gets to a certain SD below 0, it tends to hold for several weeks.  I might be misunderstanding that.  I'm just saying, if we get a real block it might hang around quite a bit, or leave but then pop right back up.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look.  More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south.  EPS looks nice for snow.

Crazy uncle is near a foot

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16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Don't blocking scenarios sometimes look temporary but then persist?  Sort of like the EPO block from several years ago.  We have had a tendency to see the 50-50 low show up this year.  Maybe this blocking persists, especially if the AO tanks.  I think Don S has data on how when the AO gets to a certain SD below 0, it tends to hold for several weeks.  I might be misunderstanding that.  I'm just saying, if we get a real block it might hang around quite a bit, or leave but then pop right back up.

Well AO and NAO are sort of two different things. The AO is a general view of the polar areas, where the NAO as we see it, sort of consists of the Greenland area to NE Quebec and the waters E and S.  We tend to view Greenland and the Davis Straits area as the NAO region of importance. While we have had prolonged -AOs....a -NAO has been tough to come by. The last prolonged -NAO that I remember was back in  March 2018. Other than something transient, a prolonged -NAO has been hard to materialize for whatever reason. 

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