weathafella Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icy Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look. More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south. EPS looks nice for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: oh noes, no power. Mankind may go extinct How did you make out I’m 2008? Not the end of the world, but damned unpleasant and costly. Lots and lots and lots of damage. Been there done that. Don’t prefer to see it’s likes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 There's a decent Davis Straits block next week for that storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look. More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south. EPS looks nice for snow. I think it’s probably a 6-10”snow event with ice sandwich in middle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Bulk of Saturday’s rain looks to have shifted East a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Bulk of Saturday’s rain looks to have shifted East a little bit Secondary . Your pack will survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Break out the SWFE playbook for the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How did you make out I’m 2008? Not the end of the world, but damned unpleasant and costly. Lots and lots and lots of damage. Been there done that. Don’t prefer to see it’s likes again. Want, more urban-oriented though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro was too far south for a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Sfc low goes underneath, no primary into BUF. Old school coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was too far south for a SWFE. My bad, I was looking at the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: My bad, I was looking at the GFS Ahh yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 The dec 17 threat does have a SWFE vibe to it. Even on the euro the vort track is pretty classic. It's just a little more sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land. I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week. If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks? I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land. I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week. If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks? I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating. It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. Yea. .. I don't foresee another warm system, but could be a mixed bag.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I am hoping the upcoming blocking episode isn't too supressive for us up here in congrates dendrite-land. I'm talking about the blocking that starts early next week. If it really establishes itself with a moderately strong -AO, aren't those likely to last, generally, for 4-6 weeks? I fear a strong DS/Grnlnd Block, but those of you in SNE should be salivating. Any of that would be later in the season...this will be transient in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 I'm cautiously optimistic that this will track favorably. Euro comes north some, GFS moves south. Might end up with a decent track. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The dec 17 threat does have a SWFE vibe to it. Even on the euro the vort track is pretty classic. It's just a little more sheared. Anniversary of 12-16-07 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's more for next week really. I don't see any prolonged blocking event.. It could be a SWFE, but that's a big low NE of us with a block in the Davis Straits. Those cutter solutions the GFS had yesterday seem unlikely to me. Don't blocking scenarios sometimes look temporary but then persist? Sort of like the EPO block from several years ago. We have had a tendency to see the 50-50 low show up this year. Maybe this blocking persists, especially if the AO tanks. I think Don S has data on how when the AO gets to a certain SD below 0, it tends to hold for several weeks. I might be misunderstanding that. I'm just saying, if we get a real block it might hang around quite a bit, or leave but then pop right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Well your favorite model has that look...gfs op and it’s trending colder gradually. But it is certainly possibly but doesn’t have the big 1998 style ice storm look. More like a swfe. Euro otoh is a near miss snow to the south. EPS looks nice for snow. Crazy uncle is near a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Crazy uncle is near a foot Must've gone wild on front end qpf since the Uncle track isn't one you would expect for a foot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Damn cold right up to Christmas too. Might be a surprise near Christmas Eve too if EPS has a clue. December to remember even with our torch interludes. NNE having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Must've gone wild on front end qpf since the Uncle track isn't one you would expect for a foot of snow. It's a very cold Gin that guy is pounding down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn cold right up to Christmas too. Might be a surprise near Christmas Eve too if EPS has a clue. December to remember even with our torch interludes. NNE having issues. We tried to tell em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 From Anthony Masiello (HM): Deep Arctic Air will return to the rest of the CONUS when the West Pacific Warm Pool starts to reassert itself. Currently, the strong height gradient and zonal wave flux is preventing a more serious showing in the WPO/EPO domain. It can and will get much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 EPS seems like it's been like this for several runs in a row. Pretty consistent considering the lead time. This is the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Don't blocking scenarios sometimes look temporary but then persist? Sort of like the EPO block from several years ago. We have had a tendency to see the 50-50 low show up this year. Maybe this blocking persists, especially if the AO tanks. I think Don S has data on how when the AO gets to a certain SD below 0, it tends to hold for several weeks. I might be misunderstanding that. I'm just saying, if we get a real block it might hang around quite a bit, or leave but then pop right back up. Well AO and NAO are sort of two different things. The AO is a general view of the polar areas, where the NAO as we see it, sort of consists of the Greenland area to NE Quebec and the waters E and S. We tend to view Greenland and the Davis Straits area as the NAO region of importance. While we have had prolonged -AOs....a -NAO has been tough to come by. The last prolonged -NAO that I remember was back in March 2018. Other than something transient, a prolonged -NAO has been hard to materialize for whatever reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS seems like it's been like this for several runs in a row. Pretty consistent. I see people already writing this off based on the GFS. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPS seems like it's been like this for several runs in a row. Pretty consistent. This is the 06z run Nice little HP nosing in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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