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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Meh... the Euro erroneously bullies that southern JB vortex/N/stream S into that whole set up like fist rape .. 

That southern stream ( or quasi southern stream ) D7 probably stays more coherently separate ...if the model verifies up to that day right in the first place. 

I do at least 'appreciate' the model sloping the southern aspects of the trough back toward the west though, because the SE height compression would do that so is acceptable. 

But man ... get a load of that - 30C 850 mb plume of air it has wobbling around southern Canada for days..  

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A couple of days ago I mentioned how we are on the line and it could break right. Well the 12z EPS shows that with some split flow and signs of a little Hudson Bay ridging. It could easily go to poo and I’m not a fan of how the Pacific looks, but it’s definitely active. So we have that anyways. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

But man ... get a load of that - 30C 850 mb plume of air it has wobbling around southern Canada for days..  

That gyre seems to get squeezed like toothpaste toward our D8 storm as it is departing, leading to a nice 50/50 after the fact.  Could that set the stage for the Xmas miracle?

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

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42 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

That gyre seems to get squeezed like toothpaste toward our D8 storm as it is departing, leading to a nice 50/50 after the fact.  Could that set the stage for the Xmas miracle?

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

How many warning snow events in December have a High Pressure centered hundreds of miles East of Cape Cod. GL

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A couple of days ago I mentioned how we are on the line and it could break right. Well the 12z EPS shows that with some split flow and signs of a little Hudson Bay ridging. It could easily go to poo and I’m not a fan of how the Pacific looks, but it’s definitely active. So we have that anyways. 

This is kind of what happened in late Dec 2012. Got a nasty grinch Rainer but then a small event Xmas morning and then the bigger events on 12/26-27 (mostly interior) and 12/29 (the famous Scooter middle finger screwgie)...fairly marginal airmasses with kind of a ka-ka pacific but we had the high heights around Hudson Bay and over toward Davis strait. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is kind of what happened in late Dec 2012. Got a nasty grinch Rainer but then a small event Xmas morning and then the bigger events on 12/26-27 (mostly interior) and 12/29 (the famous Scooter middle finger screwgie)...fairly marginal airmasses with kind of a ka-ka pacific but we had the high heights around Hudson Bay and over toward Davis strait. 

That year did come to mind. LOL. I’d do it again and take a gamble. It’s darn active so we have that. 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

This weekend you can picture skiers ready to ski off the chair, changing mind and riding right back around

going-down-ski-lift-in-flagstaff-arizona-F6J0FY.jpg

I was all over VT today. East slope has 4-6”. West slopes have nothing. Barely any piles. There was cover up to 10 miles or so SW of Rutland then none. I went all the way up to Vergennes and the grass was green. I think they must have had early snowcover that melted this week, so the ground never froze and browned. Came over the spine to WRJ, and hit snow on east slopes.  Drove by Okemo and it was 43 and rain and no sign of snow . Only on the slopes . The west slope has not had a good start this year natural snow wise. Hopefully after this weekend things change. They got spoiled last year. And Rutland... what a pit. Downsloping ftl. Just tall grass everywhere 

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I favor this scenario in the early going....some ice, too, inland

Ive been trying to hit the ice potential harder the last couple few days...

This is a good pattern on deck for that.

Couple cyro- dystopic horror story GFS runs for TX but I figure those for getting smeared more out in the flow and ending up being more progressive cyclic stormers up the northern TV/OV to NE in time...  time will tell -  mix/snow/ice/ and yes...cold rain

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ive been trying to hit the ice potential harder the last couple few days...

This is a good pattern on deck for that.

Couple cyro- dystopic horror story GFS runs for TX but I figure those for getting smeared more out in the flow and ending up being more progressive cyclic stormers up the northern TV/OV to NE in time...  time will tell -  mix/snow/ice/ and yes...cold rain

There’s not a soul here who isn’t hoping for a 98 esque storm in New England. We all say “ Yes please”

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

that would be awesome, please and thank you

98? I must have missed that one. Don't recall any sig storm in Dec 98.

I found one from Dec 23-24 1998 but that was focused on E CT and only 2-4.

I found the ZFP from that time.

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...MERIDEN...WATERBURY...
MIDDLETOWN...NORWICH
330 PM EST WED DEC 23 1998

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LOW 15 TO
20. WIND LIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY
MIDDAY THEN REMAINING CLOUDY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES.
HIGH NEAR 30. LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 10 TO 15.
.CHRISTMAS...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 25 TO 30.
.REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...FAIR. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS 25 TO 30 WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40.
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9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is kind of what happened in late Dec 2012. Got a nasty grinch Rainer but then a small event Xmas morning and then the bigger events on 12/26-27 (mostly interior) and 12/29 (the famous Scooter middle finger screwgie)...fairly marginal airmasses with kind of a ka-ka pacific but we had the high heights around Hudson Bay and over toward Davis strait. 

12/29/12 was a great storm here in CT...advisory bumped up to warning snows 6-10. Ended with 8.5"

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18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

98? I must have missed that one. Don't recall any sig storm in Dec 98.

I found one from Dec 23-24 1998 but that was focused on E CT and only 2-4.

I found the ZFP from that time.


NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...MERIDEN...WATERBURY...
MIDDLETOWN...NORWICH
330 PM EST WED DEC 23 1998

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LOW 15 TO
20. WIND LIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY
MIDDAY THEN REMAINING CLOUDY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES.
HIGH NEAR 30. LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 10 TO 15.
.CHRISTMAS...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 25 TO 30.
.REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...FAIR. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS 25 TO 30 WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40.

Jan 98

icestorm001.jpg

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Ray--could 'state of the world' at this lead time.

I was just thinking about what type of an early season pack we might have laid down if these first two events hadn't been washed away a couple days after they've fallen.  We'll likely be starting from 0" again next week.  Ugh.

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