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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Too bad the GGEM is what it is because that's lit up man ...  Like, trends the weekend blue, then threatens a moderate ice storm before loading up it's la-la range with Miller A seasonal achievement scenario -

ha, next run it'll have a comet impact .. just sayn'

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too bad the GGEM is what it is because that's lit up man ...  Like, trends the weekend blue, then threatens a moderate ice storm before loading up it's la-la range with Miller A seasonal achievement scenario -

ha, next run it'll have a comet impact .. just sayn'

One can't say things aren't active. At least the pattern isn't cold and dry, we can save that for January. We are going to somehow end up wayyy above average in the snowfall department for the Month and probably season, but still end up with above to much above normal for the season in the temp department. Maybe we should enjoy this climate changing "period" before it shifts into the way too warm to snow portion...

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it occurs to me ... folks may not be thinking about this - or are...who knows.  But, we're looking at a standardized PG layout on these charts.  

What may appear to be pure ANA by layout/construction of said standard when then adding QPF paint, may in fact be exposed as an actual closed ...albeit flat surface cyclone if the intervals on the pressure gradient were more discrete. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Glad to be SE of that line for a change.

We'll find out soon enough how it all plays out.

And ...that is an anomaly, too - relative to that experience.. 

Usually even that is too liberal in the models and what verifies is a bit under.   But in this scenario that's really a very intense mid level jet that's running up west of the boundary, and there's likely to be a bit of an anomalous restoring flow moving back up across the baroclinic field and up along the elevate frontal slope back over the region.  That happens anyway in these "ana" ..( or whatever f cozy euphemism makes us feel good about calling it ...) set ups, but they have to overcome dryness in the column as well as NVA beneath the elevated lifting area..which adds to that gobbling up falls and making the sky more virga like.  

I'm guessing at a bit more than usual, however, because of that stronger jet back up over  Albany and throughout W-NW regions at elevation.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And ...that is an anomaly, too - relative to that experience.. 

Usually even that is too liberal in the models and what verifies is a bit under.   But in this scenario that's really a very intense mid level jet that's running up west of the boundary, and there's likely to be a bit of an anomalous restoring flow moving back up across the baroclinic field and up along the elevate frontal slope back over the region.  That happens anyway in these "ana" ..( or whatever f cozy euphemism makes us feel good about calling it ...) set ups, but they have to overcome dryness in the column as well as NVA beneath the elevated lifting area..which adds to that gobbling up falls and making the sky more virga like.  

I'm guessing at a bit more than usual, however, because of that stronger jet back up over  Albany and throughout W-NW regions at elevation.

In the anafront events that end up panning out, we usually see a trend toward that low becoming more discrete in the final 48 hours. Hopefully this is one of those times. The ML flow starts backing more each run and QPF starts to juice up as a result. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In the anafront events that end up panning out, we usually see a trend toward that low becoming more discrete in the final 48 hours. Hopefully this is one of those times. The ML flow starts backing more each run and QPF starts to juice up as a result. 

Yup and I mentioned something similar a few posts ago ...how if the standardized pressure interval/contouring on the modeling charts were more 'discrete' ...we might actually see a closed low scooting up S of LI as it is already - agreed.  

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7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Euro starting at hour 198 would make a lot of people in SNE quite happy....

I would not doubt another biggie...the first one was a smidge ahead of my pre season 12-5 to 12-19 window, but the door remains ajar, mild intervals not withstanding. The month was supposed to be variable, yet active imo-

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12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

There's a lot to dicuss for December as a whole. Half the comments are about the Dec 11th threat, the other half about December. We should start a thread for this threat, no?

Anyway here are the monthly stats through 12/8

NYC: -5.1

BDR: -4.5

BDL: -5.4

BOS: -4.9

 

Blistering -7.1F for me.

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