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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Get rid of all the snow piles and ice on the streets and then a little refresher.  Be nice to see the ground covered after the big rain. Not going to complain if it is 2 inches or 12. Anything to brighten up the landscape is good by me. The hit last week is already a big plus. We've had a lot of virtually snowless Decembers recently (or so it seems) here in WorcesterWorld, absolutely no excuse to whine on my part.

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There's something of a colder complexion type event(s) out there around the solstice ... perhaps more than one given a day or two.  May be nickle-diming our way through that week.  

These are tougher to glean at extended range, however, because they are 'in-between' the tele's type systems.  They are not being presaged by any very obvious 'Archembaultian' philosophy of large mass-field correction - which usually are suggestive by observing bigger modalities in the mean of the teleconnector progs, where events tend to take place.   Since we don't presently see a coherent PNA burst ... ( although the NAO may be offering hints here... ), I'm inclined to less consolidating for now. But the ensembles are very loaded with opportunities in there with enough consistency across multiple runs that's interesting. 

Icing may be an issue, too -

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone needs to tell me how the gfs is spitting out this precip with a RH at 850mb of less than 20%.

Weird. I mean it's thin, but at the midpoint of this xsection it has relatively high instantaneous rates with RH pushing into those brown levels. If this verified, even if flakes reach the ground they'd probably be eaten up quite a bit. Heck, it's even showing -SN at the A point despite a deeper layer of like 15% RH.

image.png

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's something of a colder complexion type event(s) out there around the solstice ... perhaps more than one given a day or two.  May be nickle-diming our way through that week.  

These are tougher to glean at extended range, however, because they are 'in-between' the tele's type systems.  They are not being presaged by any very obvious 'Archembaultian' philosophy of large mass-field correction - which usually are suggestive by observing bigger modalities in the mean of the teleconnector progs, where events tend to take place.   Since we don't presently see a coherent PNA burst ... ( although the NAO may be offering hints here... ), I'm inclined to less consolidating for now. But the ensembles are very loaded with opportunities in there with enough consistency across multiple runs that's interesting. 

Icing may be an issue, too -

Plenty of wintry events on the table in SNE next 2 weeks. Agreed 

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49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Weird. I mean it's thin, but at the midpoint of this xsection it has relatively high instantaneous rates with RH pushing into those brown levels. If this verified, even if flakes reach the ground they'd probably be eaten up quite a bit. Heck, it's even showing -SN at the A point despite a deeper layer of like 15% RH.

image.png

Because of this post, I just learned how to do a vertical cross section on TT. Thank you!

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Plenty of wintry events on the table in SNE next 2 weeks. Agreed 

Mm .. and folks should also be aware, forecasting accuracy may be at a premium, too - typically these sort of quick succession wave patterns will bear out increased error in handling timing and amplitude from run to run.  But there may also be more semblance of something around x-y-z date(s), just be ready for less certainty about details until shorter terms. 

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