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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, weatherwiz said:

What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation...

It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in  

It’s going to be a battle. Some guidance has that bulge or baroclinic leaf look which is a good sign. But it will be fighting dry air advecting in.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation...

It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in  

For you my dear, 6Z Euro 

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to be a battle. Some guidance has that bulge or baroclinic leaf look which is a good sign. But it will be fighting dry air advecting in.

More the reason to think eastern sections stand the better chance 

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

For you my dear, 6Z Euro 

download (6).png

You really know how to make me hot :wub: 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what to make of things going forward. It's an ugly Pacific on the EPS, but like I said yesterday...we sort of walk the line between just rainer after rainer, or enough cold for snow. 

HM’s December to Remember he issued a few days back....gonna crash and burn perhaps??  Personally...I don’t trust any of these longer range ensemble products and their looks At all past 8 days.  Way too much volatility lately with these things.  Wait and see pattern imo..by 12z it’ll all look different again. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

HM’s December to Remember he issued a few days back....gonna crash and burn perhaps??  Personally...I don’t trust any of these longer range ensemble products and their looks At all past 8 days.  Way too much volatility lately with these things.  Wait and see pattern imo..by 12z it’ll all look different again. 

Well who is that directed too? Plains? Northeast? Mid Atlantic?  It never looked like a December to remember pattern, but sometimes you can still get good snowstorms like early last week showed. Usually people word these calls in a fashion to claim victory no matter what. 

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16 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Is it really a KU if it's not a category 3 or higher on NESIS?

Huge area of + 10 snow and +20  +4 decent too. Population limits for sure. Will be interesting to see the final rating. We have NESIS ratings but there really is no definition of a KU per se. This one was Probably above a 3 taken in totality 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well who is that directed too? Plains? Northeast? Mid Atlantic?  It never looked like a December to remember pattern, but sometimes you can still get good snowstorms like early last week showed. Usually people word these calls in a fashion to claim victory no matter what. 

I don’t know, Kev posted it mid last week after the snowstorm.,sounded like he was talking about the Northeast to me...  but who knows?  I don’t trust that long range look on the ensemble products...as said, they’re all over the place lately it seems.  I reckon it won’t turn out as bad as it looks currently.  But it won’t be a Fabo pattern either.  We’ll have our chances I believe.  

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what to make of things going forward. It's an ugly Pacific on the EPS, but like I said yesterday...we sort of walk the line between just rainer after rainer, or enough cold for snow. 

icing chances appear > than normal in there to me.   

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