RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman21 said: When was there a KU storm this season? There was a storm not too long ago that gave practically everyone N of CCT 12-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation... It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in It’s going to be a battle. Some guidance has that bulge or baroclinic leaf look which is a good sign. But it will be fighting dry air advecting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I’m expecting no more than an inch here, maybe half inch. I’ve never really seen these types of systems work out well over the past few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowman21 said: When was there a KU storm this season? If it didn't happen in a east coast city it didn't happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation... It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in For you my dear, 6Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If it didn't happen in a east coast city it didn't happen? Is it really a KU if it's not a category 3 or higher on NESIS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to be a battle. Some guidance has that bulge or baroclinic leaf look which is a good sign. But it will be fighting dry air advecting in. More the reason to think eastern sections stand the better chance 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: For you my dear, 6Z Euro You really know how to make me hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: IJD looked to have temp issues earlier. They were like coldest in New England. ? Multiple temps in that valley were below freezing at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If it didn't happen in a east coast city it didn't happen? Well, most KUs impact the population centers... the scale measures impact of east coast snowstorms. I think that one goes down as interior/near miss... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: More the reason to think eastern sections stand the better chance You really know how to make me hot Decent lift. I am still sticking with a 3 to 6 SNE snow. Still time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Light rain here and 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? Multiple temps in that valley were below freezing at the same time They were in the low 20s all night which seemed odd compared to everyone else. I didn't see anyone below 32 early this morning. I did see near 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'll stick with 1-3 for now. Maybe spot 4 if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure what to make of things going forward. It's an ugly Pacific on the EPS, but like I said yesterday...we sort of walk the line between just rainer after rainer, or enough cold for snow. HM’s December to Remember he issued a few days back....gonna crash and burn perhaps?? Personally...I don’t trust any of these longer range ensemble products and their looks At all past 8 days. Way too much volatility lately with these things. Wait and see pattern imo..by 12z it’ll all look different again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll stick with 1-3 for now. Maybe spot 4 if lucky. Yep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: HM’s December to Remember he issued a few days back....gonna crash and burn perhaps?? Personally...I don’t trust any of these longer range ensemble products and their looks At all past 8 days. Way too much volatility lately with these things. Wait and see pattern imo..by 12z it’ll all look different again. Well who is that directed too? Plains? Northeast? Mid Atlantic? It never looked like a December to remember pattern, but sometimes you can still get good snowstorms like early last week showed. Usually people word these calls in a fashion to claim victory no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: RPM is still rather snowy. Still rather useless this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Aside from the light snow Wed, we are toast for about 8 days or so. Next up that means anything is Tuesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Still rather useless this far out? Sometimes it has wins this far out, but I think it might be an outlier. It's viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Decent lift. I am still sticking with a 3 to 6 SNE snow. Still time to adjust. Certainly can't discount the potential. I know I've been burned in the past with under estimating lift and what it can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, snowman21 said: Is it really a KU if it's not a category 3 or higher on NESIS? Huge area of + 10 snow and +20 +4 decent too. Population limits for sure. Will be interesting to see the final rating. We have NESIS ratings but there really is no definition of a KU per se. This one was Probably above a 3 taken in totality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well who is that directed too? Plains? Northeast? Mid Atlantic? It never looked like a December to remember pattern, but sometimes you can still get good snowstorms like early last week showed. Usually people word these calls in a fashion to claim victory no matter what. I don’t know, Kev posted it mid last week after the snowstorm.,sounded like he was talking about the Northeast to me... but who knows? I don’t trust that long range look on the ensemble products...as said, they’re all over the place lately it seems. I reckon it won’t turn out as bad as it looks currently. But it won’t be a Fabo pattern either. We’ll have our chances I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 A storm like that (slow/long duration and many 18++ amounts in the region) is a KU in my eyes even if the Mecca missed out on it. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: almost looks like NWS must've used that pretty much down to the pixel for their early snow coverage - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure what to make of things going forward. It's an ugly Pacific on the EPS, but like I said yesterday...we sort of walk the line between just rainer after rainer, or enough cold for snow. icing chances appear > than normal in there to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Go figure, 12z NAM with the baroclinic zone closer to coast, but QPF further east. It does show strong 700 fronto over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A storm like that (slow/long duration and many 18++ amounts in the region) is a KU in my eyes even if the Mecca missed out on it. . We don’t have KUs in NNE. i’ve learned to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Aside from the light snow Wed, we are toast for about 8 days or so. Next up that means anything is Tuesday next week. Burning up December days like a medi spliff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 9, 2019 Author Share Posted December 9, 2019 6z gfs buries the MA for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Congrats James on the 12z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now