The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 @weathafella 1 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 RPM is usually wild this far out. Still snowing too. Tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Nice epic rainer next weekend. Too bad there is no cold anywhere in New England. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: RPM is usually wild this far out. Still snowing too. Tossed. It's usually wild 0-72hrs out. def tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Thank you! One can hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 So we lose it, get it back to a degree quickly then lose it again. Still a pretty nice December in comparison to most of the past 10 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice epic rainer next weekend. Too bad there is no cold anywhere in New England. Shut um down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Clown range SNE snow event on today’s op euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Maybe we can tack on another fraud five member and go for the Downeast inverted trough late Wednesday too! Maine is an exception for that...climo favored there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I see that pocket of dry air OceanSt and Itswayssunny refereed too. That a Bruce Willis flag if I’ve ever seen one. It appears it may be a bi-product of some tropo-fold and that dry pocket of air translated down into the mid and lower levels. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Clown range SNE snow event on today’s op euro. And gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: It appears it may be a bi-product of some tropo-fold and that dry pocket of air translated down into the mid and lower levels. Thoughts? I didn’t look that deep, but it looks like your classic CAA with drying and subsidence at that level. Sometimes you can offset that if you can get big lift above it, but in general not a great thing to have NW winds at 850 when trying to snow. Not impossible though. btw, message me your question you had the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maine is an exception for that...climo favored there. Definitely a Cape Ann to EPO climo max, but I would also prefer this set up to see the 500 mb pattern not progressing through the area so as to give any inverted trough a chance to form and drop some precip before it's whisked east. Color me skeptical at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Gone is the screamer. We’re getting there. Whatever we get Wednesday should stick around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Definitely a Cape Ann to EPO climo max, but I would also prefer this set up to see the 500 mb pattern not progressing through the area so as to give any inverted trough a chance to form and drop some precip before it's whisked east. Color me skeptical at the moment. I was speaking in general terms.. not necessarily endorsing any current potential. Haven't looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I didn’t look that deep, but it looks like your classic CAA with drying and subsidence at that level. Sometimes you can offset that if you can get big lift above it, but in general not a great thing to have NW winds at 850 when trying to snow. Not impossible though. btw, message me your question you had the other day. Yeah I'll send you a PM. I was looking at these two images which made me think that perhaps some dry air got entrained from tropo-fold. It's not my area of expertise so open to others input. It's more pronounced in images after these two but this is where it "begins" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 I guess there are some intrusions which may also be from PV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice epic rainer next weekend. Too bad there is no cold anywhere in New England. Well, we can take tomorrow into Tuesday as a good example. We got a rainstorm...but, now, we have a Snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This weekend is far from being written in stone. The way things have been going, I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Well, we can take tomorrow into Tuesday as a good example. We got a rainstorm...but, now, we have a Snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This weekend is far from being written in stone. The way things have been going, I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. Just mullets and Iroc-Zs everywhere I look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Boy we ride the line as we approach Christmas on the ensemble. It’s not 2011, but it needs a little help. The irony is that it may be cold enough to support a few wintry deals. It’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 what is the earliest in a winter killington or mt. snow had to shut it down? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: what is the earliest in a winter killington or mt. snow had to shut it down? It won’t be this week. Regardless they’ll get a foot or more of upslope post fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year. Well snow maps are almost always going to give you way more snow through a model run than you actually receive. So in that sense, yes looking at snow maps will hype any pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Well snow maps are almost always going to give you way more snow through a model run than you actually receive. So in that sense, yes looking at snow maps will hype any pattern. Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. Model QPF showing 1.2''...snow map has 10-15''...it's real. Then when it busts..."wahhh wahhhh the forecast models suck" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 What a melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 If the LR GFS is right, we should have a very cold Christmas day with all that cold air across the country and Canada. Be nice if that pre-Christmas snow happens, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year. Don't you take away my digital snow. I average 100" per year on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: What a melt. ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 I haven’t seen anyone hyping this. Rain and warmth followed by a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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