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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

It appears it may be a bi-product of some tropo-fold and that dry pocket of air translated down into the mid and lower levels.  Thoughts?

I didn’t look that deep, but it looks like your classic CAA with drying and subsidence at that level. Sometimes you can offset that if you can get big lift above it, but in general not a great thing to have NW winds at 850 when trying to snow. Not impossible though. 
btw, message me your question you had the other day.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maine is an exception for that...climo favored there.

Definitely a Cape Ann to EPO climo max, but I would also prefer this set up to see the 500 mb pattern not progressing through the area so as to give any inverted trough a chance to form and drop some precip before it's whisked east. Color me skeptical at the moment.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Definitely a Cape Ann to EPO climo max, but I would also prefer this set up to see the 500 mb pattern not progressing through the area so as to give any inverted trough a chance to form and drop some precip before it's whisked east. Color me skeptical at the moment.

I was speaking in general terms.. not necessarily endorsing any current potential. Haven't looked.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn’t look that deep, but it looks like your classic CAA with drying and subsidence at that level. Sometimes you can offset that if you can get big lift above it, but in general not a great thing to have NW winds at 850 when trying to snow. Not impossible though. 
btw, message me your question you had the other day.

Yeah I'll send you a PM.

I was looking at these two images which made me think that perhaps some dry air got entrained from tropo-fold. It's not my area of expertise so open to others input.  It's more pronounced in images after these two but this is where it "begins" so to speak.

1575936000-n2q1kyZbQrA.png

1575936000-jSXAyCE5BGU.png

 

 

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice epic rainer next weekend. Too bad there is no cold anywhere in New England.

Well, we can take tomorrow into Tuesday as a good example. We got a rainstorm...but, now, we have a Snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This weekend is far from being written in stone. The way things have been going, I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, we can take tomorrow into Tuesday as a good example. We got a rainstorm...but, now, we have a Snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This weekend is far from being written in stone. The way things have been going, I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised. 

Just mullets and Iroc-Zs everywhere I look.

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Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

Well snow maps are almost always going to give you way more snow through a model run than you actually receive. So in that sense, yes looking at snow maps will hype any pattern.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Well snow maps are almost always going to give you way more snow through a model run than you actually receive. So in that sense, yes looking at snow maps will hype any pattern.

Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. 

Model QPF showing 1.2''...snow map has 10-15''...it's real. Then when it busts..."wahhh wahhhh the forecast models suck" :rolleyes:  

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

Don't you take away my digital snow. I average 100" per year on the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a melt.

ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype.

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