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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t have specific dates , but with nice jet streak, significant upglide, and boundary just offshore, it argues for a significant winter wx event away from the water . Just my opinion 

Translation “no, I don’t have an analog”

You will snow... but it won’t be much for anyone. This just ain’t it.

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Tip's right that we do have some dry air to contend with for much of the area, but the strong jet is going to induce some late advection. The GFS is trying to bring in a swath of low level moisture and pressure advection late Tuesday.

The pressure advection is kind of weird though, basically pressures on the isentropic surfaces are falling so quickly behind the front that SW flow behind the front is actually blowing from high to low pressure (i.e. ascent). Normally you get pressure advection due to wind blowing normal to isobars, not from local changes in pressure. So you can see why these set ups are tenuous.

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a good teleconnector layout out for winter enthusiasts by the GEFs  cluster.

Not sure what the EPS derivatives look like, but both the CDC and CPC agencies which base their numbers on said cluster, flip hobbies until further notice.  

Right out through the pooch screwed Christmas weather ass bangin' Holiday, too

Hopefully...the EPS is different ;) and can offer some semblance of a salvation compared to the above despair.  Otherwise, seek entertainment ( and for some, 'elation' joy circuitry ) elsewhere.

 

Hopefully if EPS agrees it's a temporary 1 to 2 week issue.

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