Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 It could be too easy to cling to the GFS as a soothing alternative - pick delusion over despair...? sure. However, the GFS routinely stretches the flow too prodigiously in the mid and extended range, to the extent where it can't be trusted. In this case, it's bias could very well be promoting too much easterly positions of all features. GFS or Euro aside, all these guidances conserve and blow up and/or damp out, theor own bias'/creations, out in time. Part of the technological charge is to create models that don't do that - The Euro on the other hands - though in a relative sense ... not as egregiously - carries on oppositely as a longer termed tendency. If you click back and forth between D6 and 7 from not 00z, but 12z yesterday's run, just take a look from orbit at the general appeal of that over-arcing flow, between the west coast and Chicago's appr latitude; it somehow, for no apparent geophysical reason, slumps the entire geopotential medium some 6 to 10 DM ...wholescale. That suspicious, and likely erroneous collapsing 24 hour "correction" ...than gets conserved running out through the end of the run with all kinds of troughing mechanics in the western OV. So what we have here - it appears to me - are two models going crazy with there own bias types beyond D 5-ish ( maybe 4 ). Probably ..its endemic to a zonal flow and more at 'low' amplitude PNA that causes that. In a low wave counted 'laminar' flow, that sort of exposes the vanilla tendencies of the models, is my hunch. Because the 00z GFS's solutions stretch credibility...where the Euro ends up with an inferno at 850 over top of a Miller B ? mm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Nice stretching of the 5H vorticity now even on the GFS which had left behind consolidated energy earlier. This stretching induces lift along a long axis well into cold air. At this early stage I would expect a 3 to 6 snow with the potential for more for the majority of SNE. Some SE coastal areas may be warm at the surface for a while to slow accumulations. Fine tune as time dwindles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM definitely looks better than 00/06Z runs. Quite a bit juicer and transitioning to snow faster. FWIW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice stretching of the 5H vorticity now even on the GFS which had left behind consolidated energy earlier. This stretching induces lift along a long axis well into cold air. At this early stage I would expect a 3 to 6 snow with the potential for more for the majority of SNE. Some SE coastal areas may be warm at the surface for a while to slow accumulations. Fine tune as time dwindles. Agree . Violently so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Zonked out clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM shifted East which is more in line with current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Is this during the day Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is this during the day Wednesday? It begins just after midnight NW, predawn for most, ends about noon or so, per NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM looks sweet! Hoping this actually works out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That QPF looks...robust... does that surprise you, it's the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: does that surprise you, it's the NAM It's not farfetched It's a low riding the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM looks sweet! Hoping this actually works out If it were to play like that, it would be a tremendous start for you, Luke, Chris, and Dave. WNE pattern at last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's not farfetched It's a low riding the front. I actually agree with this, curious to see the rest of the 12Z suite though. Still don't think we'll see anything like this on the ECMWF, probably more like a bump up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No Retire that thing. bring back the ETA/NGM/AVN power-trio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: bring back the ETA/NGM/AVN power-trio DGEX!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Dec to Rem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don’t care what it’s called. I care about forecasting it. It’s a follow up s/W so looks ana to me. I was being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dec to Rem Set it and forget it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 December to dismember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 20.5” here for the month. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Damm..low of 0.1 here. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Even for the screw zone up here...great December so far. Lots of cold, feel of winter, diamond dust last night and shimmering snow everywhere. Will lose the field snow mon-tues but not the woods. Then back into a decent pattern...not great but doesn't seem like a disastorous pattern is looming unless I'm missing something. An average pattern is good for many of us, maybe not so much for NYC and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We like vintage? Havlicek stole the ball? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Havlicek stole the ball? SNE steals it! SNE stole the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Regarding the late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning deal....looks like 1-3/2-4 type of deal for now. Regarding the long range....eps is actually slightly improved at the end of the run but pacific is still suboptimal. I don’t see how we can avoid a relaxation that may last as long as 5 days before we bring winter back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 My thinking right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Imo this is a 3-6” or 4-8” deal on Wednesday. You change over sooner , you get into low end warning. Later and it’s closer to 3-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Imo this is a 3-6” or 4-8” deal on Wednesday. You change over sooner , you get into low end warning. Later and it’s closer to 3-4” I’ll take under on 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Not a good teleconnector layout out for winter enthusiasts by the GEFs cluster. Not sure what the EPS derivatives look like, but both the CDC and CPC agencies which base their numbers on said cluster, flip hobbies until further notice. Right out through the pooch screwed Christmas weather ass bangin' Holiday, too Hopefully...the EPS is different and can offer some semblance of a salvation compared to the above despair. Otherwise, seek entertainment ( and for some, 'elation' joy circuitry ) elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take under on 4-8. Yeah... no shot that’s happening.... my guess is most people will be disappointed if they Are expecting more than an inch or 2... and that might even be optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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