Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s beginning to look a lot like Torchmas? Let’s see.. you said that about the first week, the second week, the third week, had AN month for Dec.. Sooner or later it might happen. Or it might not? I’ll continue riding HM ideas till I can’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Probably in the overwhelming minority with this ...buut, I find right now through late Monday fascinating, actually. Many of these backyard station obs were -5 to +10 F for low temperatures this morning, across the pan-wide region of interior SNE, and these same locations could be 50 to 60F late afternoon on Monday, ...cloud/showery saturation depending... Still, even in the muted version, we go from this to that with essentially, ZERO active weather, other than the sensible temperature change. It's one of those deals where the whole column/air mass up and bodily moves away, en masse, such that in fewer to no points within are there unbalanced soundings. I.e, no advection of warmth. That's an under-the-radar notability about this synopsis early this week, to go that far in a 24 to 30 hour change with so little advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s so crappy, the gfs moves towards it. But the eps has sucked. Gefs has led the way . The pattern should be better after the rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see.. you said that about the first week, the second week, the third week, had AN month for Dec.. Sooner or later it might happen. Or it might not? I’ll continue riding HM ideas till I can’t Yeah I had AN like a month ago. I never had torch, but I did say moderation and that’s what we wiLL have. Looks good. The AN December is trickier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Everyone hold tight to your Twitter Mets. Hug ‘em tight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don’t care what it’s called. I care about forecasting it. It’s a follow up s/W so looks ana to me. Heh, ... just between me and you and everyone I'm about to piss off with this statement, the argument against an ANA probably has a psycho-babble motivation, underpinning. In this rendition of group think .. .people don't want to admit that it is ANA, because "ANA" tends/reputation toward poor verify/no verification - and we can't have that. So the vehemency in semantic pop-cycle head-ache takes it's natural form. Ha ha ha. Can't get reality to change? Attack what we call it instead - hey... I'm good wid dhat - Seriously, I don't care what anyone wants to dink around with in naming waste of time either... I see what you are seeing... a front with sharp 850 to SFC regression of temp exceeding our longitude, with a very strong mid level wind max passing well west ...on top/over top of the elevated frontal slope - QBF between it, and the front's leading edge, is quite theoretically acceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: We snow Wednesday. Let the end of week stuff sort itself out. The period after next weekend looks promising. I see all these bridge jumpers ..all these torch calls on here etc etc.. Theres 2-3 snow chances the next 10-14 days, and we’ll see where we go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Intact GFS shows another coastal system moving up from the south Friday, spreading precipitation into Southern New England with continues into Saturday. The ECMWF is slower with the coastal system, moving precipitation ashore on Saturday. GFS temperatures are borderline, with potential for both rain and snow. The ECMWF temperature show predominently rain. Expect a mix of precipitation on one or both of the days, but with low confidence. What did the FV3 have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Oh... I see why, the 00z Euro makes the impertinent gesture of a miller-B under an 850 mb column that supports mid-May temperatures - That outten'ed-a poke the hornet's nest. Ho man, is that ever U-guh-ly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: What did the FV3 have? You mean the old GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 What happened to our wire to wire December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You mean the old GFS? Yeah the one that we should never look at, That one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 It had a short circuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 What happened to warm AN month with bad look and no snows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What happened to our wire to wire December? What happened to a warm December ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Not just rainers for mainers either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: What happened to a warm December ? Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 December to Mehrember? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not just rainers for mainers either. Shut ‘em down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What happened to a warm December ? Gone like the brown of his hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Alright well in all seriousness, there are some snow chances. However, the Pacific is not favorable. Sometimes when the Pacific isn’t pretty snow chances on the mean turn warmer. Just beware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Siggy snows in the next 7 days look tenuous at best. Expect rain and a blob of mixed stuff. Then some more rain and mixing. anything more that that is gravy 28” for December. I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 The other aspect about that mid-week, post cold frontal upglide, because there is unbalance hydrostatic forcing that we can't on god's green Earth be so impudent as to call "ANA" ... event , is that suppose a rendition such as the GFS: I'd go ahead and assume that the spatial coverage where that is actually reaching the ground is ~ the eastern 1/2. Otherwise, that's virga with an amazing sunset spectacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Still all in all this is an impressive look, would not take much shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 For Ray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Still all in all this is an impressive look, would not take much shifting. Usually when you have the block north of AK it’s good. But, if you get beyond that frame there, it goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let’s see.. you said that about the first week, the second week, the third week, had AN month for Dec.. Sooner or later it might happen. Or it might not? I’ll continue riding HM ideas till I can’t Sounds a little like your and Dew's HHH forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I don’t care what it’s called. I care about forecasting it. It’s a follow up s/W so looks ana to me. What is your forecast for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Usually when you have the block north of AK it’s good. But, if you get beyond that frame there, it goes away. I Was just looking at that 2 day period no further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What is your forecast for this? Looks like we could get 1-3? I’ll wait until the 12z stuff comes in to look more closely. It looked like NAM favored western areas into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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