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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

we know you posted tea leaves,  nobody really reacted ... and then you said "ooohh c'mon guys' like you were waiting to say that lol

The pacific is in flux so it’s not ideal. But there were times on the ensembles that looked to offer some shots. I don’t know how much more clearer I can be. This is the EPS I’m referring to.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week...  I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean.

> 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear.   The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience.

It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. 

That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see. 

It’s not anafrontal as depicted by the strongest Euro and Ggem runs, the frontal boundary is a hundred miles offshore. It’s a SW riding the boundary causing converging air to rise and precipitate. I mean Ocean State wx explained this but several posters just skipped over it.

 

   3 hours ago,  OceanStWx said: 

It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. 

The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It’s not anafrontal as depicted by the strongest Euro and Ggem runs, the frontal boundary is a hundred miles offshore. It’s a SW riding the boundary causing converging air to rise and precipitate. I mean Ocean State wx explained this but several posters just skipped over it.

 

   3 hours ago,  OceanStWx said: 

It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. 

The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. 

I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this 

This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here.

This actually HAS a chance 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this 

This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here.

This actually HAS a chance 

Some look at color maps see rain on one side and snow on the other and define as anafrontal but it’s not this time. Maybe it fails but it wouldn’t be because of Virga or NW drying winds. It would because either the SW failed to materialize or it generated insufficient lift.

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24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this 

This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here.

This actually HAS a chance 

I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get.

Pretty weak response Ray. History is loaded with waves within days of frontal passage. I realize it's not the barnstorm storms that you seek but to dismiss just cuz is Methodologically unsound

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