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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Because of 1 CMC run?    I admire your optimism 

What I think he means is, the last one broke right and most of us did ok-and some did fabulous.  If this happens to work out with accumulating snow, then what he’s saying is perhaps this winter is showing it’s hand somewhat, in what would be a positive for SNE. 

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45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

 

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

True...I finally looked.  Fraud 5 being fraud 5....

 

15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

can't believe the backside analfrontal lasted as many runs as it did

Do people read? I mean one of the smartest Mets on the board and all.

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55 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. 

The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. 

 

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

I feel like there are February-esque expectations here for this month lol. Just wait until the end of January and February...CFSv2 introduces -NAO and -EPO you'll get your snow if it verifies.

This month has been better than many Februaries for me.  And it’s only Dec 7

We on hiatus for a bit though

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1 minute ago, It's Always Sunny said:

I feel like there are February-esque expectations here for this month lol. Just wait until the end of January and February...CFSv2 introduces -NAO and -EPO you'll get your snow if it verifies.

Climo gets 'em every time. Even a "snowy" place like ORH in December averages nearly double the snow after 12/15 than during the front half of the month (9.0" vs. 5.6").

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

can't believe the backside analfrontal lasted as many runs as it did

Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week...  I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean.

> 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear.   The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience.

It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. 

That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see. 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week...  I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean.

> 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear.   The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience.

It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. 

That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see. 

I think we are very much aware.  Expectations are generally low.

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