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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1 full week of pack. Usually you can lock it in all winter , but not to be this year . Last deep winter run earlier this morning. Was so depressed thinking about all of us seeing grass by Tuesday 

Assuming that "all of us" refers to SNE east of the Berks plus Maine/NH coastal plain.  My little 6" pack has 2" or so LE and points in Aroostook have 15-20" OG.  If we get enough warmth/rain to take out all of that, we'll have some flood headlines to go along with it.  My guess for here is that the torch leaves the yard with a bulletproof 3".  Early Grinch isn't a true GRINCH.

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18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not a bad look if it holds:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.2e8d73090d6f5f51ae3f8c8e7c30de75.png

I don't really know how to interpret a map, but that looks good to me because:  cold air supply, pacific transport of southern stream energy, ridge at the pole and a bit of a bridge to greenland, trough centered in midwest so we aren't suprressed.  Would bring miller a, miller b and clippers?  Also looks like a great spell of winter in the UK.

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1 full week of pack. Usually you can lock it in all winter , but not to be this year . Last deep winter run earlier this morning. Was so depressed thinking about all of us seeing grass by Tuesday 

What happened to HM’s big calls a couple days back about the big mid month winter weather of December?  The models fake him out?

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mid month on looks good. After about the 16th

Ok cool, I think we’d all be happy if that actually worked out.  I mean, you know there’s always gonna be a relaxation/warm up in December, if you even get any winter like we had this early. So if it relaxes now, and reloads somewhat by mid month as you say...that might be very good timing for All of us...with the holiday approaching and all. 

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Obviously when I say anafrontal is a "fraud five" member, I do not mean that the phenomenon is not real...as @Typhoon Tip pointed out....it is. The "Fraud Five" simply refers to weather phenomena that are usually not something to "hang your hat on", so to speak....at least in our area. IOW, inherently low probability scenarios, but they can and do work out once every 3.5 blue moons, or so.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tried to explain this is not anafrontal as depicted. UKMET also likes a shortwave to ride up the offshore boundary 

It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. 

The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. 

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