Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol dude. Totally joking . It’s Ants Masiello. He’s probably one of the top 3 atmospheric and long range guys in the industry. To that I am 100% serious. I always wondered why he is not in the field. So so smart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I thought it was analfrontal i guess that’s a oxymoron 33F Use your imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Use your imagination Use this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Euro seasonal, strap your boots on, Somehow Jan and Dec are flipped in order. Dec is the 2 nd image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: No talk about the anafront ? Zero interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 6, 2019 Author Share Posted December 6, 2019 We're really tracking D6 analfrontal. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Just got a little snow shower here, sweet! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 We're tracking d6 snow showers I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro seasonal, strap your boots on, Somehow Jan and Dec are flipped in order. Dec is the 2 nd image That goes along with my idea for winter nicely....PNA driven December, but more RNA and blocking reliant, thereafter...consistent EPO, variable arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Pray the gfs suite of guidance is correct next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pray the gfs suite of guidance is correct next week. Didn’t Ray say the threat on the 15-16th was real? Still on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Euro over amped at this lead time as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Didn’t Ray say the threat on the 15-16th was real? Still on? Yea, threat is there, but doesn't have to work out...not looking like the SSW is going to succeed, which is why NAO pulse is absent. It can still work out, but confidence sinks a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, threat is there, but doesn't have to work out...not looking like the SSW is going to succeed, which is why NAO pulse is absent. It can still work out, but confidence sinks a bit. Are you suggesting immediate effects of the SSW? It looks to me like the vortex at 50mb starts to get punched around a bit at the end of the EPS, so more than likely maybe January something happens. I don't understand why twitter mets will all abuzz of a SSW in December. At least to me, I didn't see evidence of it. The latest talk from fraud Judah was how he is using the polar vortex (not even the tropospheric version) on the GFS to help determine cold shots. I don't understand how that is a good metric for this. There is no immediate response, because you cannot permeate what is virtually a physical boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro over amped at this lead time as usual. Yea, I wouldn't worry at this point.....if anything, it probably also increases the likelihood that this transitions to more of a miller b look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Are you suggesting immediate effects of the SSW? It looks to me like the vortex at 50mb starts to get punched around a bit at the end of the EPS, so more than likely maybe January something happens. I don't understand why twitter mets will all abuzz of a SSW in December. At least to me, I didn't see evidence of it. The latest talk from fraud Judah was how he is using the polar vortex (not even the tropospheric version) on the GFS to help determine cold shots. I don't understand how that is a good metric for this. There is no immediate response, because you cannot permeate what is virtually a physical boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere. You are right, there is no immediate response with respect to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere, which takes a good 3 weeks to a month for propagation and such. However as referenced in my blog, there is a tendency for a successful SSW to excite the MJO response, which I was tentatively progged at extended leads to be in phase 7 or 8 come mid December. Last season, the MJO was entering a la nina like phase at the time of the SSW, which accentuated deconstructive interference of an el Nino that had already been struggling to couple with the atmosphere. This also created an environment even more hostile to blocking during the subsequent recovery of the PV. Anyway, I will not be suprised to see it fail because I only expected minor attacks on the PV early this season, from which it will be able to recover. However some guidance suggested that a SSW would indeed take place a week or two back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 I explained in my blog that the immediate NAO pulse would be from MJO excitement, NOT instantaneous downward propagation, which of course is an absurd concept. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro over amped at this lead time as usual. It has been for a while. Gefs is suppressed for next weekend and it also shows the anafrontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It has been for a while. Gefs is suppressed for next weekend and it also shows the anafrontal wave. Truth is probably in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Scott, there was support for a SSW....moreso probably from GFS. But again, no issue with it ultimately not succeeding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are right, there is no immediate response with respect to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere, which takes a good 3 weeks to a month for propagation and such. However as referenced in my blog, there is a tendency for a successful SSW to excite the MJO reaponse, which I was tentatively progged at extended leads to be in phase 7 or 8 come mid December. Last season, the MJO was entering a la nina like phase at the time of the SSW, which accentuated deconstructive interference of a an el Nino that had already been struggling to couple with the atmosphere. Anyway, I will not be suprised to see it fail because I didn't expect I only expected minor attacks on the PV early this season, from which it will be able to recover. However some guidance suggested that a SSW would indeed take place a week or two back. Ahh ok. I see what you mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ahh ok. I see what you mean. Translation.. I see what you mean and violently disagree with everything you just said 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Translation.. I see what you mean and violently disagree with everything you just said Its debatable because I feel as though that is still poorly understood, but just going by what I have read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You are right, there is no immediate response with respect to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere, which takes a good 3 weeks to a month for propagation and such. However as referenced in my blog, there is a tendency for a successful SSW to excite the MJO response, which I was tentatively progged at extended leads to be in phase 7 or 8 come mid December. Last season, the MJO was entering a la nina like phase at the time of the SSW, which accentuated deconstructive interference of an el Nino that had already been struggling to couple with the atmosphere. This also created an environment even more hostile to blocking during the subsequent recovery of the PV. Anyway, I will not be suprised to see it fail because I only expected minor attacks on the PV early this season, from which it will be able to recover. However some guidance suggested that a SSW would indeed take place a week or two back. Don't mean to bombard, but you are correct. There is actually a paper out that shows evidence that when you get a rather robust phase 3 mjo that propagates around, like we had last year that it does lead to a SSW if the conditions are favorable. With how weak the PV got in late nov I wonder if we had a more robust mjo signal through phase 3 would it of initiated anything. Though, we really didn't get a strong wave 2 hit on the pv after the wave 1 displacement which is needed usually. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Don't mean to bombard, but you are correct. There is actually a paper out that shows evidence that when you get a rather robust phase 3 mjo that propagates around, like we had last year that it does lead to a SSW if the conditions are favorable. With how weak the PV got in late nov I wonder if we had a more robust mjo signal through phase 3 would it of initiated anything. Though, we really didn't get a strong wave 2 hit on the pv after the wave 1 displacement which is needed usually. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144 Chicken or egg, I guess...as my understanding was that the SSW amplified the MJO, not that the amplified MJO induced the SSW...but like I said, frontier concept and I'm all ears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 6z nam is a little critter that’s biting a little Would make it seem decent rates for a few hours possible somewhere route 2 to concord nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Scott, there was support for a SSW....moreso probably from GFS. But again, no issue with it ultimately not succeeding... There probably will be one, I just did not see it this early. In any case, whatever happens this week, it looks fairly active after the 15th too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Translation.. I see what you mean and violently disagree with everything you just said No there was papers on that last year. Had to do with height of tropopause IIRC down in equatorial regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There probably will be one, I just did not see it this early. In any case, whatever happens this week, it looks fairly active after the 15th too. My position in the outlook was that there would be only minor disruptions in Dec, and the pv would be resilient....a SSW in January would fit with my theme of second half blocking. However if the SSW had succeeded in mid Dec, I feel we would have had a big NAO dip, transient as it may be... December going as planned with an active, variable pattern and any NAO transient. Should be PAC driven. Second half NAO driven with less Pacifc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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