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December 2019 Discussion


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From the Mid Atlantic  forum 

 

Meteorologist Wxusaf

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

From the Mid Atlantic  forum 

 

Meteorologist Wxusaf

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

Yea, love when confluence sets up shop over me.

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You can see the two ridge nodes ..one over old Mexico and the other between Florida and Bermuda in the Euro's end frames.

That structure is just a weee bit too far west in totality.  It would be nicer to have the nadir betwixt the two be more aligned Buffalo's mean longitude, rather than Chi-town or west.  

As is, that is a prelude to a Apps runner. Perhaps with a labored secondary on D11 that doesn't commit but keeps the warm front from ever getting in here.  But that's all D10+ so the chances of that plot extrapolation playing out are laughably dicey.   

What really sticks out to me is the incredible warm lobe pinched off over Alaska with that -EPO and/or uber amped +PNA ( which ever that is..) on D6. The pattern's completely up-side-downed our side of the hemispheric 850 mb cold.  Between Lake Superior and James Bay the model ends with -32 C air in there. Meanwhile if there was any sun at all up in NE Alaska they'd be 60+.  Wow.

 

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After that reset event next week the GFS is sending buckshot opportunities for minoring impact events ... probably wintry in character right out to the end of the run.  That's really the over-arcing theme, a winter like mid month - not the intervening warm up (comparatively very brief). 

Which, happen.  It's part of the natural order of things, that even at large scale there is a kind of 'ebb and flow' in patterns.  

By the way, the event early Friday smacks a bit like that 2002 ( 2003?) Feb 10-ish ( god I suck at dates!) "Little critter that bites" and bit very hard.  Who knows if it this one can over-perform ( if at all ) but that one back then was a hugely dismissive 10" 1/4 mi vis Pike halting menace that sent NWS scrambling and reeling to get warnings out that by the time were registered to the public the sun was already come back out. Oops

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

After that reset event next week the GFS is sending buckshot opportunities for minoring impact events ... probably wintry in character right out to the end of the run.  That's really the over-arcing theme, a winter like mid month - not the intervening warm up (comparatively very brief). 

Which, happen.  It's part of the natural order of things, that even at large scale there is a kind of 'ebb and flow' in patterns.  

By the way, the event early Friday smacks a bit like that 2002 ( 2003?) Feb 10-ish ( god I suck at dates!) "Little critter that bites" and bit very hard.  Who knows if it this one can over-perform ( if at all ) but that one back then was a hugely dismissive 10" 1/4 mi vis Pike halting menace that sent NWS scrambling and reeling to get warnings out that by the time were registered to the public the sun was already come back out. Oops

2/7/03?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003/us0207.php

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