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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

there are going to be some heavy meltdowns in the coming weeks, esp. NYC south. Panic room will be rockin

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. 

Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is.

Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. 

Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is.

Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

I suspect there will be volatility in general 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. 

Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is.

Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

Who called the coming pattern epic?

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14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a cutter pattern next 2 weeks with highs exiting east and Se of us and the return flow combining w approaching short waves bringing rains to Maine’s. Cold and dry after the systems. Hopefully toward the end of this period we can score !

Yesterday the models showed a really good pattern after next week.  Proceed with caution. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the MJO stalling in 2 and going into the COD. Not a warm pattern at all.

....

It's not a cold pattern, either, to be fair. 

In fact, that's probably better interpreted as 'n/s,' as it is said, or no skill.  Code for pointless..

It's weak only in phase 2 with not that much time for momentum exertion to begin with. That alone means it is unlikely exerting much if any forcing on the pattern... and that is definitely even more so, true, as it collapses into that COD region as you noted. 

The other aspect about the MJO that I guarantee you, the consensus of the greater Met community ambit is not considering:  the Hadley Cell is unusually expanded associated with the background GW signal. This is not supposition or speculation; it is empirically noted and papered.   

But, .. what that means is that it has expanded in latitude, N and S of the tropics into and farther beyond the subtropics... where it amorphously bounderies with the lower Ferrel Cell ( middle ) laitudes in some cases.  This changes the planetary mechanics of how the MJO ...and ENSO for that matter, can effective force on the Global circulation - as it pertains to R-waves distribution... 

A little pricey in words there ..the simple way to say is, the correlations are changing.  They have to. That's logic.  If a static characteristic of a-b-c source --> teleconnects to x-y-z at a separate location, what happens when the a, b, or c sources is/are no longer static? 

Yet, from official forecast offices, to seasonal forecasting efforts by ignored and cute enthusiasts of social media and back, there's rarely a turn of phrase conveying much awareness or perhaps even "respect" for that chain of reasoning.   But I'm digressing a bit here ... 

Point is, a feeble wave signature trundling briefly up into lower wave strength range in one phase, only to drowned in the COD, when on-goign, background din of the Global maelstrom makes that like a vesper in the quasar of a black hole, mmm that pretty much means that it is utterly nothing ... most likely :)   Nothing is ideally deterministic in this game, but that's the money line there. 

CDC's just come back on line with it's teleconnectors... It's the EPO source I typically use... I'm sure the Euro and perhaps the GGEM and UKMET folk put their own variations, and if you pay for them, they'll give the mass fields with a deep and caring proctological examination for an equally handsome pretty sore-butt price. Which I'm not willing to pay for those informatica.  The EPO at CDC has a spike in the PNA but ... when the EPO is neggie like that, and then tries to flip positive, that suggests that the flow down stream over North America should actually stretch west to east some in time. Yet, we see the operational runs dealing reverses on that clad advise given yesterday.

I wouldn't give up on that though.  It may work out with endless cutters.. It may - hence the 'nothing is ideally determinable' in this game. But, I "think" the models are too 'diggy' out west for these last couple of cycles.  This did this before this snow storm too... We went through a big warm up signal a couple weeks ago and it really didn't work out too well.  

 

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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a cutter pattern next 2 weeks with highs exiting east and Se of us and the return flow combining w approaching short waves bringing rains to Maine’s. Cold and dry after the systems. Hopefully toward the end of this period we can score !

06z GFS op shows Augusta with RA and 60° at 00z on the 11th.  Blecchh!   GFS is infamous for showing cutters (or blizzards) at 10 days out and beyond, and which then disappear, but the mess for 10th-11th has been there for several days now.

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