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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Euro cut back on the 850 penetration in latitude, as well as time duration, and I suspect that trend continues. ... 

This next Lakes cutter is probable ( still ) but the deeper extended ( whether it happens or not exactly like that, notwithstanding...) really more than anything else underscores the previous -EPO or -EPO-like reload idea. Which typically promotes a brief period of ridging and warm intrusion up the eastern seaboard as per climatology as we know.   Scott is over stating that effect to be funny troll but he knows what I am saying is true, and unless things turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities ... that period of time is more likely destined to be a transient/lower duration and quite possibly a lower amplitude scenario.  

Now that I've declared this... things will go ahead and 'turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities' just to spite this idea .. but cross that bridge -

Regarding the Lakes cutter ... I still would not be surprised if the warm up ends up being more of a triple point mister with more transient heat pinched S of NYC.  I've seen this EPO slosh back mass field two-step scenario too often to know that the warm side of it is often too amplified in most guidance types when peering at it from D5+ but ... meh...we'll see -

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The GEFS at 6z looked great out west starting around day 7....Who knows, it is the GEFS, but something to watch at least, better than the blow torch many were expecting to happen after this initial cold snap....If that cold does end up coming the middle of the month, then fully expect the Grinch right on time!

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I'd watch early next on the colder trend....I'm kind of with Tip on this one.

The PNA is actually spiking during this time with an EPO block already in place....this is going to want to negate the rising heights out ahead of the storm system. We even have a weak greenland ridge too. As Tip would say, the "correction vector" is colder.

 

Now that doesn't guarantee we don't cut...the individual shortwaves can overcome the background teleconnection....but it could turn into one of those flatter triple point deals where we maybe barely warm sector.

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And that's the way it looks to me exactly ... at this time. 

I'm not hoping?  or doing otherwise ... I'm just trying to be objective based upon knowledge and experience ... balancing in trends. If the large circulation featuring alters I'll be happy to amend these ideas regarding the current mid to late range ... 

Time will tell. 

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