Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Defiantly not a pack. Almost like ice. Yep, took my dog out and it was like ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks lot of ice if 2M maps are correct NH border south No ice indicated on clown map...strange. Maybe ton of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The shaded map is definitely more pessimistic than the obs. Lots of 1.0s (mostly sleet) that are ignored in Interior E MA. Yeah....my parents had a couple inches in Hooksett and the maps have almost nada around there. I forget how the analyses are calculated...is it mostly remote sensing with satellite SWE data that is combined with actual depth observations? The sleet and ice is pretty dense so it should have a pretty high SWE. A lot of obs around NE MA are 0.25-0.30" so 3-4:1 puts you around that 1" of glacier mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep, took my dog out and it was like ice. Our driveway and onto our road is a jagged glacier of death right now. For some reason anything that melts from the edge of our property spills out onto the road and freezes every year. It is odd since it is essentially level at that end I almost fall on my ass every time I walk the dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: As legit as an OP GFS run for 12 days out can be... I don't think I've ever seen a fantasy storm that deep outside of hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah....my parents had a couple inches in Hooksett and the maps have almost nada around there. I forget how the analyses are calculated...is it mostly remote sensing with satellite SWE data that is combined with actual depth observations? The sleet and ice is pretty dense so it should have a pretty high SWE. A lot of obs around NE MA are 0.25-0.30" so 3-4:1 puts you around that 1" of glacier mark. I think it's a combo actually (coop, survey, airborne, and modeled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think it's a combo actually (coop, survey, airborne, and modeled). How much weight is given to the Lunenburg obs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: How much weight is given to the Lunenburg obs? The most. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 *Lunenburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah....my parents had a couple inches in Hooksett and the maps have almost nada around there. I forget how the analyses are calculated...is it mostly remote sensing with satellite SWE data that is combined with actual depth observations? The sleet and ice is pretty dense so it should have a pretty high SWE. A lot of obs around NE MA are 0.25-0.30" so 3-4:1 puts you around that 1" of glacier mark. I like those maps overall. They are usually pretty decent. But I've noticed in that high LE ice pack they will underestimate and then in arctic sand it can overestimate sometimes...not sure what in the algorithm causes it. Arctic sand I can understand since it's prob measuring decent LE but it's low ratio garbage...but not sure why it can't "see" the sleet pack well. They do sometimes get a little kooky late in the year too when you have the classic spring snow pack where woods and shaded areas might have 2 feet of snow with 5-6 inches of water in it but the typical bare patches in south facing torch slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I like those maps overall. They are usually pretty decent. But I've noticed in that high LE ice pack they will underestimate and then in arctic sand it can overestimate sometimes...not sure what in the algorithm causes it. Arctic sand I can understand since it's prob measuring decent LE but it's low ratio garbage...but not sure why it can't "see" the sleet pack well. They do sometimes get a little kooky late in the year too when you have the classic spring snow pack where woods and shaded areas might have 2 feet of snow with 5-6 inches of water in it but the typical bare patches in south facing torch slopes. I think the remote sensing is based on LE, so the higher the water content the more pack it will think is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Heh, reminds me identically of this Miller-A bomb that the horrible beyond belief GFS modeled, too ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, reminds me identically of this Miller-A bomb that the horrible beyond belief GFS modeled, too ... What’s that March 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: What’s that March 2014? maybe Boxing Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 January 2018 bomb cyclone without a doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: January 2018 bomb cyclone without a doubt! Ding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 That got down to 950. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The last blizzard we had on Long Island. Doesn’t feel that long ago but it was March 21 2018 was a monster after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, reminds me identically of this Miller-A bomb that the horrible beyond belief GFS modeled, too ... If that storm slowed down......we slayed that morning into early aftn. Many areas 15 to near 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS pretty consistently past few run showing something around 1/5 - 1/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: GFS pretty consistently past few run showing something around 1/5 - 1/6 Maybe time to more seriously consider that period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Euro is an ice storm....this looks ominous. Not sure how we avoid it with that +PP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Euro is actually a snowstorm n of pike and outside of 495 lol I'm becoming sold on wintery impact... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro is actually a snowstorm n of pike and outside of 495 lol I'm becoming sold on wintery impact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 GEM is a crush job cne....jesus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Probably do first call tomorrow night. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/winter-storm-potentially-poised-to.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Unsurprisingly, that huge GEM solution makes zero sense to me. Hell of a feat dropping 20" of snow here without redeveloping the mid level lows prior to reaching my latitude. That run is straight out of the X Files.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 But we were told no snow in SNE until Jan 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: But we were told no snow in SNE until Jan 20... Who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 On 12/24/2019 at 8:03 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Me? The 2 choir boys smothered me under their robes this morning. They melted. I’ve been expecting an awful January. It is what it is on this o holy of days . I’m not thinking any snow in SNE until after Jan 20 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said that? A fair amount of banter yesterday in response to the post above. I'm suddenly thinking a visit to Pit2 might be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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