Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO may briefly make a phase 8 appearance around New Year's so maybe someone can sneak in something. Big AO transition too usually yields storminess. Doesn't work that way .. It's not like, A --> so B happens, in the greater maelstrom of the planetary atmospheric mechanics ... It's more like, A --> so B prime might yield a skip over C, so that D can gives rise to E-F-G ... but if, and only if, B ( not prime but initial condition) allowed its differential .... such that .... Nth enigma might parlay into a trough over eastern N/A if about 10 other things line up such that all that can happen. I think there's a equation for that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Punt blocked and returned for a TD @dryslot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a convoluted pattern. Quebec block helps push this cold trough near Maine. That's a look that could easily change in 12 hrs, but guidance hinting at this today. That shortwave appeared on last night's guidance and has trended hard south today. Maybe we get one more jump south. Even as is, that's def ice inland. Prob even further south than the verbatim 2m temps show...that's crazy advection from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. We get gennys ready again. Never fails. The moment Scooter melts down , winter hits Typical Kev cancels snow and frozen then hits the frozen sauce hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Climo alone argues the GFS is too light with it's pressures over central and eastern Canada for -1 or -2 SD trough rollin' over ORD like that... just sayn'. Looks more like ice storm for the time being ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 39 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: MERRY CHRISTMAS! "Baruch atah adonai eloheinu melech ha'olam, shehecheyanu, v'kiyimanu, v'higiyanu lazman hazeh." A....a....main! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EURO IS quite cold. Ice event near pike and mix to snow SNH. We press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That shortwave appeared on last night's guidance and has trended hard south today. Maybe we get one more jump south. Even as is, that's def ice inland. Prob even further south than the verbatim 2m temps show...that's crazy advection from the northeast. How much qpf ? Is it significant? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Typical Kev cancels snow and frozen then hits the frozen sauce hard. It’s Dec. we never cancelled Dec. The melts did yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 That cutter tracking further west and getting squeezed out underneath NNE/CNE with that high to the north, Time to keep an eye on it, GFS not quite there yet but thats the third Euro run that has had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much qpf ? Is it significant? It's 120+ hours...I wasn't really looking closely at qpf. Maybe around an inch? It could be a decent system. But QPF is the last thing to be looking at right now. Need to make sure this isn't a true screamer/cutter first. Good trends last night and today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Reminder: We didn't see our first widespread snow event in SNE until Jan 24th 2015 and Jan 23rd 2016. Enjoy Christmas, have a few nogs, a few shots of Goldschlager and you'll be feelin' much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's 120+ hours...I wasn't really looking closely at qpf. Maybe around an inch? It could be a decent system. But QPF is the last thing to be looking at right now. Need to make sure this isn't a true screamer/cutter first. Good trends last night and today though. Reminds me of a storm back in the 2000 singles . I’ll never forget Drag saw it first and hit it hard in the AFD. We were on Eastern then. It looked like a screamer and it ended up being snow up north and ice/ snow SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Reminds me of a storm back in the 2000 singles . I’ll never forget Drag saw it first and hit it hard in the AFD. We were on Eastern then. It looked like a screamer and it ended up being snow up north and ice/ snow SNE. Drag still posts in the NYC forum, don't know if you saw it. Does he still work for NWS PHI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Drag still posts in the NYC forum, don't know if you saw it. Does he still work for NWS PHI? I think he’s retired 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Drag still posts in the NYC forum, don't know if you saw it. Does he still work for NWS PHI? Walt has been retired for more than 11/2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reminds me of a storm back in the 2000 singles . I’ll never forget Drag saw it first and hit it hard in the AFD. We were on Eastern then. It looked like a screamer and it ended up being snow up north and ice/ snow SNE. Yeah. I'm not totally sold yet but it's a good trend. Need to see that shortwave up north trend even stronger imho. It's already done so two runs in a row so maybe it will again at 00z but if it goes back the other way a little bit then we're looking at a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Punt blocked and returned for a TD @dryslot Will never happen. It has me jackpotting and that is nigh on impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Umm no. Jan 24th 2015 AFD. He was working for Mt Holly, PHI. He was all over the blizzard. Not sure how much he worked from them after this. That is 1 and a half years not 11 and half 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Walt has been retired for more than 11/2 years Edit: thought that said 11 1/2 years. Too much nog on christmas day. Think i'll retire from the boards today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Edit: thought that said 11 1/2 years. Too much nog on christmas day. Think i'll retire from the boards today. I understand. Walt is great guy and a terrific forecaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EURO IS quite cold. Ice event near pike and mix to snow SNH. Hopefully near enough to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Edit: thought that said 11 1/2 years. Too much nog on christmas day. Think i'll retire from the boards today. I read that the same way. Trick of the eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I understand. Walt is great guy and a terrific forecaster. He really is a great guy. I went to an info seminar on a new benefit we (federal employees) had the option of purchasing. Everyone had to flash their ID and the guy ahead of me has one from NOAA. I look at the name it’s DRAG! I blurt out-Walt Drqg and he wheels around with a look of who the fuk could know me here.... It was right before the 2002-03 winter and he had some great insight. Nice man, hopefully enjoying his retirement. I’m a bit older....(maybe 2-4 years) and will be joining him in retirement in 6 months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: He really is a great guy. I went to an info seminar on a new benefit we (federal employees) had the option of purchasing. Everyone had to flash their ID and the guy ahead of me has one from NOAA. I look at the name it’s DRAG! I blurt out-Walt Drqg and he wheels around with a look of who the fuk could know me here.... It was right before the 2002-03 winter and he had some great insight. Nice man, hopefully enjoying his retirement. I’m a bit older....(maybe 2-4 years) and will be joining him in retirement in 6 months. I enjoyed speaking with Walt when I called in my Skywarn reports. He loved to discuss the weather. And he was always open to answering a question or two. I hope one day he writes a book about his days at BOX. He has a lot of insights and theories on SNE weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 EPS is pretty consistent on some really cold air here 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: He really is a great guy. I went to an info seminar on a new benefit we (federal employees) had the option of purchasing. Everyone had to flash their ID and the guy ahead of me has one from NOAA. I look at the name it’s DRAG! I blurt out-Walt Drqg and he wheels around with a look of who the fuk could know me here.... It was right before the 2002-03 winter and he had some great insight. Nice man, hopefully enjoying his retirement. I’m a bit older....(maybe 2-4 years) and will be joining him in retirement in 6 months. I have another decade or so until that blessed event. I can’t wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS is pretty consistent on some really cold air here 11-15. Talk to me when its before day 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 46 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I understand. Walt is great guy and a terrific forecaster. Weenies grew three sizes as they read his AFDs. I'll be completely honest that reading his AFDs in high school and thinking "WTF does that mean?" was a big motivation to go to school for meteorology. 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I have another decade or so until that blessed event. I can’t wait. 26 more years for full benefits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Weenies grew three sizes as they read his AFDs. I'll be completely honest that reading his AFDs in high school and thinking "WTF does that mean?" was a big motivation to go to school for meteorology. 26 more years for full benefits... Lol....I’m going out FERS with 37 years, 7 months of service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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