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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was it the 12z GFS 9 years ago that started disrobing some weenies? I know it was a screw job in many areas, but that was a hell of a storm. Boxing Day.

By Hr 264 a pacific zonal flow develops. But you can also see a small piece of energy breaking off that southern SW likely going to down a storm day 11! Makes me think the cold will be halted this run for sure. . In fact the long range part of this run 10days on looks pretty bleh. Mainly Zonal flow . Artic shortwave not digging down into Canada.nearly as much .long range wobbling. We will see. Everyone run drastically differently. Analyzing is fun but obviously taken with a grain of salt. Small storm forms day 11 which looks pretty good early on. Piece of energy gets funneled from SW across country to the easternshortwave . Crazy how weather works Gives everyone on this board some snow! Happy tracking 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Was it the 12z GFS 9 years ago that started disrobing some weenies? I know it was a screw job in many areas, but that was a hell of a storm. Boxing Day.

That was insane. I will never forget that when the ULL captured it and brought it back. I think the 12z NAM started the trend tho. The run before

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32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Shady side of street is snow covered for me but hippy wins the retention prize!

My neighborhood is fantastic at snow retention, jackpots not so much.

I think what really helped is that although last weeks storm was only five or so inches,  it was high water content stuff so it had some good staying power, especially after yesterday’s thaw and last nights freeze.

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58 minutes ago, Hazey said:

St. John’s getting the goods. Congrats to them for a true white Christmas. About 90% snow cover here but it’s rough. Inch or two at best. I’ll take it. Hopefully pattern improves in the new year. Merry Christmas to all.

We had a couple inches on the ground 2-3 days ago, it has all but melted. It was 48F yesterday lol. St. John's about to get a blizzard tonight. 

Merry Christmas! 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Was it the 12z GFS 9 years ago that started disrobing some weenies? I know it was a screw job in many areas, but that was a hell of a storm. Boxing Day.

One of my favorite storms.  I think the disrobing was the on the 23rd 0z gfs.  The gfs got there first and the euro came around by 12z.  One local met, Janice Huff on the 23rd, called for 2 inches while nick Gregory started honking in one of the first times I recall our NY local Mets mentioning models.  

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14 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

One of my favorite storms.  I think the disrobing was the on the 23rd 0z gfs.  The gfs got there first and the euro came around by 12z.  One local met, Janice Huff on the 23rd, called for 2 inches while nick Gregory started honking in one of the first times I recall our NY local Mets mentioning models.  

Was that the one when NCEP said to disregard the GFS because of some glitch?

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Back lurking back on the NE forum, as CO has become a December desert and boring as all hell. Anyone remember waaay back in around 1982 when we had "computer models" that predicted a last minute bomb and NWS BOX to issue short-fuse winter storm warnings about 11 PM on Christmas Eve? The Weather Channel had a scrolling red screen, and my high school self got all excited, till the next morning when we realized it was all just a computer-generated dream.

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44 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Was that the one when NCEP said to disregard the GFS because of some glitch?

Yep. I remember that.  

But also remember that from 7 days out there were GFS and Euro solutions that were all over the storm, and then it flattened out to nothing on the models.  I remember because at 6 days I was honking to all my friends about this major storm, and I sent an email to like 50 people. Then the models backed off, but I was too busy at work to cancel the storm. So when it came around again and dropped 17 inches on us, everyone thought i could see around corners.  I never copped to it.  

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1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

One of my favorite storms.  I think the disrobing was the on the 23rd 0z gfs.  The gfs got there first and the euro came around by 12z.  One local met, Janice Huff on the 23rd, called for 2 inches while nick Gregory started honking in one of the first times I recall our NY local Mets mentioning models.  

Even later than that actually, it was the 24.12z GFS that roared west. WPC (nee HPC) tossed that idea in favor of continuity of forecast because it mishandled heights, vorticity, and RH in the Dakotas. 

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