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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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58 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I thought in the late 1980s/early 1990s there was a decent NYE event.  Not a KU by any means but a foot or so?

I definitely don't remember that. 1/2/87 had a big one but that was obviously a day after New Years. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Thats a totally stupid statement!  We’ve done quite well of late in the snow department thank you.   Feb 13 Jackpotted my area...you win some, you lose some..everybody does. 

Win some ...lose some ...ya so do the bengals technically 

S shore mass at least has a nice frequency of 18”’ers thanks to CJ

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17 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

There is no way some rogue lake effect streamers can explain the Norfolk CT COOP snow totals.  Its kind of crazy looking at their totals.  They only have 1 season above 100" the past 20 years.   But from 1944-1998 they AVERAGED about 100" per year. That's a good sample size being 50+ years. I think most considered the Norfolk COOP date pretty pristine?

Serious question, as somewhat that didn't grow up in NE, how could they have averaged that much over that time period? I know they have some good elevation (1300ft?) But they don't seem to get much Upslope?(correct me if I'm wrong)  So mainly synoptic with some lake effect streamers, squalls sprinkled in. 100" average is a lot for a non lake effect/non uplsope spot.

The baroclinic zone shift for whatever reason to river east in recent decades?

 

 

They get a TON of LES/ upslope flow snow there. Super high elevations and perfect trajectory downwind of Ontario. Look at a radar during CAA NW winds and they’ll be snowing. It’s 80% that 

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15 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

There is no way some rogue lake effect streamers can explain the Norfolk CT COOP snow totals.  Its kind of crazy looking at their totals.  They only have 1 season above 100" the past 20 years.   But from 1944-1998 they AVERAGED about 100" per year. That's a good sample size being 50+ years. 

The baroclinic zone shift for whatever reason to river east in recent decades?

The bolded seems to have some red flags for me.  

How do you go from a 50-year average of 100” to getting only one winter of 100” in the next 20 years?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They get a TON of LES there. Super high elevations and perfect trajectory downwind of Ontario. Look at a radar during CAA NW winds and they’ll be snowing. It’s 80% that 

A ton?  I don’t know much about that climo but I also don’t feel like they are ripping out 4-8” lake effect and upslope events with regularity....or maybe just no one mentions it.  I could see more 1-3” type squalls but I’ll definitely start to pay more attention if they get a ton of snow from that.

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Not mentioned enough, how GD rainy this year has been.

"We’re in the beginning of one of the longest dry stretches we have seen in all of 2019. Friday will mark the third day of no measurable precipitation. It looks as though this dry weather will continue through the weekend and even beyond Christmas. This could end up as the longest stretch of dry weather this year. We would just need to see a week more of no rain and snow to move into first place"

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2019/12/20/metro/just-time-holidays-lull-winter-weather/

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A ton?  I don’t know much about that climo but I also don’t feel like they are ripping out 4-8” lake effect and upslope events with regularity....or maybe just no one mentions it.  I could see more 1-3” type squalls but I’ll definitely start to pay more attention if they get a ton of snow from that.

It’s a lesser version of what Stowe gets. You get some les assist and upslope. Same concept at a lower scale 

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More on the rainy year.

"This is not a small rainstorm. Once again, we are looking at 1 to 2 inches of water. This will mean we have measurable rainfall Friday and Saturday, which will put 2019 in fourth place for the most number of days with measurable precipitation. Of course, there's still enough time that we could go into first place by the end of the year."

https://www.wbur.org/news/2019/12/13/june-13-2019-weather-forecast

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A ton?  I don’t know much about that climo but I also don’t feel like they are ripping out 4-8” lake effect and upslope events with regularity....or maybe just no one mentions it.  I could see more 1-3” type squalls but I’ll definitely start to pay more attention if they get a ton of snow from that.

Obviously Scott, Ryan, Kevin, Will, Ginx, etc know much more about that micro climate, but I'm just not seeing it after radar watching the past few years in that area.(Mainly because i was curious after looking at the COOP data)  I feel like its a sliding scale of Great Upslope in the N Greens then decent moving down to  SVT, OK in the Taconics/Berks in ENY, Western MA and then the scraps in NW CT.

Maybe I'm way off here.  I think we have a few posters in that general area? Maybe not at 1300-1400ft.

 

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Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

Obviously Scott, Ryan, Kevin, Will, Ginx, etc know much more about that micro climate, but I'm just not seeing it after radar watching the past few years in that area.(Mainly because i was curious after looking at the COOP data)  I feel like its a sliding scale of Great Upslope in the N Greens then decent moving down to  SVT, OK in the Taconics/Berks in ENY, Western MA and then the scraps in NW CT.

Maybe I'm way off here.  I think we have a few posters in that general area? Maybe not at 1300-1400ft.

 

It’s not a classic spot like Mitch, but they’ll nickel and dime their way to good numbers. I’ve heard from a number of people they’re a sneaky good spot. 

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not a classic spot like Mitch, but they’ll nickel and dime their way to good numbers. I’ve heard from a number of people they’re a sneaky good spot. 

Yeah there's some pretty good evidence it's a local max on the chain of mountains going down. The valley gets pretty wide to the west of them before the Catskills so there's some room to reinvigorate upslope streamers. I've also heard that people would drive into that area and see 4-5" of snow and literally 3-5 miles either direction there would be almost nothing. They'd get their own little private snow event. 

I wish I knew more about the spotters. I think the former guy's son took over but isn't as diligent in measuring every flake like the dad was. So those 1-3" fluffers turn into 0.5" or traces and the 5 inches turn into 2 inchers. There's also going to be some variance at play too...the former guy was measuring during some real weenie years for LES...esp during that 1955-1980 period or so. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there's some pretty good evidence it's a local max on the chain of mountains going down. The valley gets pretty wide to the west of them before the Catskills so there's some room to reinvigorate upslope streamers. I've also heard that people would drive into that area and see 4-5" of snow and literally 3-5 miles either direction there would be almost nothing. They'd get their own little private snow event. 

I wish I knew more about the spotters. I think the former guy's son took over but isn't as diligent in measuring every flake like the dad was. So those 1-3" fluffers turn into 0.5" or traces and the 5 inches turn into 2 inchers. There's also going to be some variance at play too...the former guy was measuring during some real weenie years for LES...esp during that 1955-1980 period or so. 

If you follow the Norfolk dude on Twitter. It’s literally always snowing there. There’s always SOTG. Granted it desolate and rural . You have to be a person like Mitch who doesn’t like people and likes relative isolation and losing your internet and connection to society for 7-10 days at a time to live there. But if you are seeking a lot of snow and are anti society, it’s one of the best spots in New England 

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