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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, ScituateWX said:

 Been solid down this way IMO at least compared to recent Decembers.

Yeah no complaints. We've had a stretch of some awful December's recently. Will brings up a point about split flow. Sometimes that's the key in an otherwise lousy PAC look. The ridging near Hudson Bay and Quebec that I pointed out can help. We'll root for that.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was that the one that the NAM and GFS first picked up on bringing it back ? And then other guidance followed that day?

That storm was actually called "The RPM storm".....the RPM kept hitting us like 48-60 hours out and we assumed it would cave but it never did and other guidance started catching on. I can't remember which normal model agreed with it first, but it wasn't the Euro...it might have been the RGEM actually and then the NAM. It was kind of a compact little nuke, so it was a system that the meso models handled better.

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38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I haven’t looked back to 2008 and 2009 but this might be best December in Greenfield since we moved here in 2007.

Dec 2007 was prob your best....but 2008 was good too...but '08 was prob better out east due to the best snows being east on Dec 20-21. So was 2009....but I don't think it beats out the other two....esp since you whiffed on the Dec 20, 2009 storm.

In ORH, the 25.3" of snow this December trails only Dec 2007 (27.1) and 2008 (31.4) since 2007.....if we go back a little further, 2002 had 30.5".

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That storm was actually called "The RPM storm".....the RPM kept hitting us like 48-60 hours out and we assumed it would cave but it never did and other guidance started catching on. I can't remember which normal model agreed with it first, but it wasn't the Euro...it might have been the RGEM actually and then the NAM. It was kind of a compact little nuke, so it was a system that the meso models handled better.

The one 3 days earlier and the 29th  sent Scooter over the Tobin. 

Dec_26-27_2012_Snow_Plot_box.png

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I mean.you had to be about 20 miles further west than that to get some respectable totals...but I thought the rain line was hilarious driving through it

It was a middle finger of warmth, centered over Scooter. I was in Dorchester at the time. The s coast was flipping to snow while we held onto marine taint. As unbelievable as it sounds, that was the icing on the cake of 14 months of screwage for me personally. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a middle finger of warmth, centered over Scooter. I was in Dorchester at the time. The s coast was flipping to snow while we held onto marine taint. As unbelievable as it sounds, that was the icing on the cake of 14 months of screwage for me personally. 

Epic rough stretch... I lucked out with a Jan 2012 storm..but you were literally ground zero for Tip's cosmic dildo

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a middle finger of warmth, centered over Scooter. I was in Dorchester at the time. The s coast was flipping to snow while we held onto marine taint. As unbelievable as it sounds, that was the icing on the cake of 14 months of screwage for me personally. 

That thread is hilarious.  I think you threw your laptop through your window when Kev posted this

Screenshot_20191219-092810_Chrome.jpg

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The NAO is fickle ... duh. I mean, we know this.  And, even I was proponent for the "possibility" that more -NAO like constructs might evolve out in time, .. oh, about two or two.5 weeks ago .. thereabouts. Simply because there was a gesture then, lurking in the extended range ensembles, for cyclone trajectories to begin a more E bias of the CC lat/lon - as opposed to the other route, which curves them up into the D. Straight as transient black holes...

But, that behavior in the models has not manifest its self further, since. In fact, it's gone.  So as experimental as that was at the time, it was noted that there was no actual blocking being modeled in association with the suppressed cyclone traffic? Rather, it was the suppressed track alone that gave sort of an impression that a -NAO, and the supposition floated was  maybe that meant one was kind of buried in the din of the background physics, and that one might emerge with more of the typical, total attributes given time... etc.. 

Neither has taken place.

Yet, the CPC's forecast for the NAO has it neutral-negative entering week 2, with mop ended disagreement among the members. Not exactly selling confidence in the idea of -NAO. 

I guess in total, I'm not seeing much -NAO ...at least coming from the GEF's related products.  The EPS obviously carries along it's own outrage, but I haven't seen it's fist waving.  Just looking at the free sources that are out there, that can be used as "spacial extrapolators" ..  unless the NAO is very westerly biased, it's hard to image ( at least thru day 10 ) being able to fit a -NAO anywhere west of 50W at high latitudes given the evolution of the wave-lengths. 

Excluding the possibility that the EPS has a -NAO of -2 SD pulsing perfectly not too far west to suppress the flow and speed things up and destroy all hope...  I think think there is nothing to look forward to, and that people will conjure reasons to offset that despair as the main social-media thematic arc over the next ...however long it takes.  Some of those alternative points of 'election' will come true - rolling dice sometimes pays off too. Most of it won't though.. But, this is by virtue a changeable engagement; that much is certain. And so with that certainly, there will definitely at some point be something ( finally) look forward to again as far as fun cinema - the game afoot is patience.  

Personal perspective:   The NAO is far less helpful to us than most people can even begin to conceptualize, given to the intense imprinting they went through  when they were coming of Meteorological age in the mid 1980s through the 1990s, when that particular teleconnector was popularized, and the boon era of mass-media weather coverage then really galvanized it too deeply the collective gestalt to ever have any hope to reality wrt to what that index means.  It was like the latest and greatest diet pill - too bad those svelte users now have heart-valve trouble.  No, the cold loading pattern in North American continental pattern is the NE Pac... If that happens first, then a west based -NAO block sets up as a large systemic 'relay', that can enhance cold transport into Lakes/OV/NE... But NAO's in and of themselves are a suppression storm track indication, and when the NAO is statically negative, that's not good for snow enthusiast because it compresses the flow and speeds it up too much for cyclogenesis physics.  Cold?  sure... 

You want pulsed -EPO's with pulsed +PNAs, first... then, the NAO can help or hurt, in equal measure in either direction, provided it is not 'getting in the way' and also, depending on particulars of it's integrated modulation/permutation type.   None of which can really even be remotely assessed when the former is in abeyance by the hemisphere for whatever reason ... and what there is of it is a PNAP that is wildly undulating in both directions.  Meanwhile, any NAO? has almost no confidence for even happening in real time and space to begin with.  

I will tell ya though... I have seen this sort of flat-lined hopeless, vitriol troll-inducing sort of circumstance set up several times since 2012, and most of them don't last. I mean logically you can almost assume it can't... because the pattern is really all over the place. Look at the D10 Euro... Obviously that particular time interval is never going to 'be right' on that model or any for that matter. No. But, that ending setup with those huge undulatory wave structures west to east across the whole hemisphere is really an homage to chaos taking over.

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a middle finger of warmth, centered over Scooter. I was in Dorchester at the time. The s coast was flipping to snow while we held onto marine taint. As unbelievable as it sounds, that was the icing on the cake of 14 months of screwage for me personally. 

That was the storm I met wxniss for in Brookline Village and we walked up to Coolidge Corner in heavy snow.  I’m in Trader Joe’s getting a bottle of wine and wxniss is looking upset pressed against the window.  A monsoon on the way home which lasted 90 minutes before flipping back to snow.  My current location probably never flipped and likely had close to 8 inches.  Supposedly the changeover never got west of the BU Bridge.

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16 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

2010. The same year snowmageddon dropped 30 inches 50 miles to my south with zilch where I am  when I was living in NYC. 

2010-2011 was the most memorable winter of my life. . I was going to quinnipiac at the time and it was just snow storm after snowstorm. Biggest pack I’ve ever had, was able to even build igloos big enough to have friends in them for college drinking shenanigans. Good times..

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33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It is crazy to reminisce about past events and then realize how long ago some were.  

I was just reading that thread and wondered where some went. Are they alive? Like Allenson from Vt, how about that ice storm commander dude lol. Sankaty? So nice to have it preserved ,still choke up a little when I read a messenger post. Good stuff though 

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