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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

Hey man I’m right there with ya on the south coast of CT. We’ve had maybe 4” all season so far and whole lotta ice today. Hang in there we will get ours. Jan/Feb is the coasts best shot. We’ve also lost grip reality with the pst decade being very snowy for SNE including the coast. Feels almost like the 90s again.
 

.56 of ice on everything Except most roadways. Bridges are a different story. North side of town will have some damage for sure.

Fairfield, CT

Yeah.

Here in Easton only 5 and a lot of ice.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s just some squalls. Some people get them some don’t.

Moisture in the lowest levels is preventing this from being really good. We have most of the other parameters in place, but below 900mb or so the moisture is kind of meh. Everything looks better up north. Lift is a little so-so as well, but with good moisture we'd still probably have widespread snow squalls in SNE. Instead, I think the squalls will be less intense and more like snow showers.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Moisture in the lowest levels is preventing this from being really good. We have most of the other parameters in place, but below 900mb or so the moisture is kind of meh. Everything looks better up north. Lift is a little so-so as well, but with good moisture we'd still probably have widespread snow squalls in SNE. Instead, I think the squalls will be less intense and more like snow showers.

It looks pretty good on radar in upstate NY at least, but that probably won't be coming this way :( 

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2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It looks pretty good on radar in upstate NY at least, but that probably won't be coming this way :( 

Yeah they'll weaken in SNE....there could still be some good squalls, but the potential is a bit tempered without that big LL moisture pooling you typically like to see in higher end WINDEX events. So these are probably the "coating to a half inch" type in SNE rather than 1-3" in the higher end stuff....isolate spots could see an inch or more...esp NW MA.

The soundings at a place like BTV have the good LL moisture.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they'll weaken in SNE....there could still be some good squalls, but the potential is a bit tempered without that big LL moisture pooling you typically like to see in higher end WINDEX events. So these are probably the "coating to a half inch" type in SNE rather than 1-3" in the higher end stuff....isolate spots could see an inch or more...esp NW MA.

The soundings at a place like BTV have the good LL moisture.

Yeah you probably would want flow a little more SWrly to help with the moisture issues. We'll look forward to parking lot pics at Stowe later on.

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Just making an observation:

This ensuing 'warm up' and its governing patterning, particularly on the heels of a -3 to -5 persistence that spanned a month, are both a nice homage to this Hadley Cell expansion, as well as the notion that when the -EPO faucet shuts off, the rest state is wildly in the other direction. 

Middle latitudes of our continent can boast some of the most extreme variations over relatively shorter 'intra-seasonal' time-scales than any other regions of the world that are of similar distance from the Equator ( outside of local spatial regions that succumb to unique smaller scale forcing). This was true 1,000,000 years ago ... 100,000 years ago, 10,000 years, 1,000 years... 500 ...250 ...and today. It's always been that way.

The reason for that is because of our geological relationship with the atmosphere at very large scales, promotes the southward displacement of cold air masses from higher latitudes. When that occurs, their termination is usually forced deep into old Mexico and even Florida in extreme outbreaks.  You won't find that air mass in Hong Kong for a reason, even though they are only ~ 5 deg of latitude different, comparing those two geographic regions.  It's because there is large scale topographical interference pattern of the land mass working in 'synergy' with the large scale circulation of the atmosphere over North America.  Metaphorically, the continental shape is like a 'funnel' ... some 1/4 or perhaps 1/2 of the seasonal patterning will result NE trade flow out of the Ferrel Cell in eastern Canada, while there is NW conveyor setting up in the NW Territories of Canada, and that air has no where else to go but south like no where else on the planet. 

In 2019, the extremes are made that much more extreme ;)  I have noticed since the year 2000, that when the -EPO turns off... and the Hadley Cell resumes it's polarward anomaly, the turn arounds are rather handsome. 

This period is nice homage to this ...and is, among so many other more subtle ways, an example of GW playing a roll in actual, empirical climate change. 

Note, this is not a forecast in any way, shape or form, regarding the warm up its self. This is just an observation of what it looks like, how it has been modeled as of late...and what that interpretation could mean is far as flipping an impressive -4 ( what it takes to maintain that depth in verification, notwithstanding ..) to perhaps a period equal if not more so in the other direction.  It seems we are taking the normal tendency for enhanced continental-atmospheric feedback/harmonics, and making that even more extreme, due to the background increased hemispheric gradient of present era Earth.  I find it fascinating... if perhaps unnoticed.

If I were ask?  I'm inclined to suggest a significant cold wave threatens the nation nearing the first week of January... Perhaps starting west as they usually do across the continent, and spreading east, with reinforcing cold loading while that happens. It's very early speculation ... but the GEFs EPO mean is dropping beyond D10 and there is some -40 C 850 mb air being generated by many guidance types over the western Beaufort Sea/over toward N of Russia, and these are initially independent large scale observations, ..where any subsequent tendency to displace that mass would be a rather harsh reminder...  So we'll see where all that goes, but just like the large star is dead 10 hours before it's outer limbs registers the shock wave of supernova, a time in which to an outside observer, the star continues to shine totally normal ...  the warm up has no idea its already a corpse too. 

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55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be mild for a while in January before things pick back up. Probably one more good threat before we close out this month, but I won't be surprised if not much comes of it....I'm nearing climo ceiling for December at 25" and counting...about 10" from a record-

So no sn storms through next week, mild-up for xmas, leaving last week of the month for some potential. Possibly mild first half of Jan. Sounds like shit. The 'it's still early" posts will be fading soon it seems.

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21 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So no sn storms through next week, mild-up for xmas, leaving last week of the month for some potential. Possibly mild first half of Jan. Sounds like shit. The 'it's still early" posts will be fading soon it seems.

1) "Mild" in January can still yield winter storms

2) I didn't say wall-to-wall warmth...just on average....we'll see.

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