Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Reading comprehension ftl. I read "most likely" just fine. The anxiety in this forum is palpable. People flinging insults and anger running rampant. Could be the 1st real winter storm threat for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I read "most likely" just fine. The anxiety in this forum is palpable. People flinging insults and anger running rampant. Could be the 1st real winter storm threat for SNE. Wrong. If you re-read you will understand that ‘most likely’ was in the context of what the most likely south solution is a result of. Meaning, IF this misses south...the ‘most likely’ reasoning is because of disjointed mid levels. That in no way means that is the overall ‘most likely’ solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Great news. More dynamics . And more warmth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Glad to see everyone getting along so well! Can't wait to see what happens if it doesn't snow in December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I'm with Jerry...my worry is taint before suppression....both options are plausible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Glad to see everyone getting along so well! Can't wait to see what happens if it doesn't snow in December! Family...it’s all in good spirit and fun. At least that’s my take. Hopefully no one gets truly angered. If so, I apologize to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm with Jerry...my worry is taint before suppression....both options are plausible though. A taint storm would even be a nice event. Just make it wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Because that is the most likely south solution. A total whiff would be more likely if the ULL traversed across the south ala Jan 16 and never quite fully could climb up the coast. This ULL is across the upper midwest ie, less likely to be a whiff. The ‘whiff’ result would be a disjointed mid level mess, not a ‘it’s missing south’. Get it? Staring at a bunch of models last night the disjointed mid-level mess scenario was my leanings but I know nothing. Let’s see how models trend with strength of secondary next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I'd take a mix ending as accumlating snow and run for Dec 1st. Would rather whiff than all wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Yeah looking at the 06z EPS, It was warm aloft and at the surface over most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I do the same but confirmation bias is a dangerous game. FYI its not been 1 run of EPS probabilities Personally I think it’s harder to stand your ground when every subsequent solution shows something different. We will see how many more runs of major guidance today? And the final outcome will still be ~5 days away... What’s noise vs what’s meaningful is toughest in weather forecasting imo. Updating a forecast too often can be worse than not enough. Imo the trap is the former when key information is coming over 6 hr intervals—minimal confidence gained per run, BUT its new information... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah looking at the 06z EPS, It was warm aloft and at the surface over most of SNE. Im trying to embrace cold Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Staring at a bunch of models last night the disjointed mid-level mess scenario was my leanings but I know nothing. Let’s see how models trend with strength of secondary next few days. Also, having gfs be disjointed and se while euro is nw is a pretty good spot to be in. I like where we are at d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Also, having gfs be disjointed and se while euro is nw is a pretty good spot to be in. I like where we are at d5. Yeah...this can still end up anywhere, but if you have to pick a combo of model solutions at this time frame, you prob want to be tainting a bit on the Euro and being scraped by the GFS. The NAO ridge is a good thing too that does put a limit on how much this can amp up. But that limit is still high enough to produce all rain for SNE, so it's not safe yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Family...it’s all in good spirit and fun. At least that’s my take. Hopefully no one gets truly angered. If so, I apologize to them. We all love each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 hope this sorts itself out well enough, because the next best shot at a snowstorm may not be until near Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: hope this sorts itself out well enough, because the next best shot at a snowstorm may not be until near Christmas We thaw or stay thawed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We thaw or stay Rather this storm amp and rains to Maines, than get squashed south for the mid-atlantic... each and every one of us agrees on that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Steve’s favorite SM platform starting to rev up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: hope this sorts itself out well enough, because the next best shot at a snowstorm may not be until near Christmas Not true. We only Grinch at Christmas. We're on to a new decade for snow threats! Not sure the '20s can match the epicosity this one delivered, but we can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Feeling better today? Good. Your positive contributions are needed. Could be a fun week of tracking. You didn't answer the question. How does it feel to have people describe your emotions from a post about the weather. Like you said , discussion forum, just dont break the mold, you will be labeled . Lots of time lots of options. Just always remember Lucy and Charlie Brown are on Thanksgiving day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I think it be difficult to whiff but I do think the focus will be south of where it is now. let me guess, somewhere over NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Not true. We only Grinch at Christmas. We're on to a new decade for snow threats! Not sure the '20s can match the epicosity this one delivered, but we can hope! extra sulk and bitterness around here if we Grinch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Fishers winter forecast is out, big year for Boston 55 to 65. Where is Wills SNE average snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: extra sulk and bitterness around here if we Grinch Did you off Tip? Big guy is missing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I think Tip ran off to get married in Vegas. He had a girlfriend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You didn't answer the question. How does it feel to have people describe your emotions from a post about the weather. Like you said , discussion forum, just dont break the mold, you will be labeled . Lots of time lots of options. Just always remember Lucy and Charlie Brown are on Thanksgiving day I’m too high all the time to be angry. You can label me what you want but I couldn’t care less how anyone’s post makes me feel emotionally because it doesn’t. Now, ignorant comments related to subjects that ‘hit close to home’ especially on a text chain is a different story. Not directed at you or anyone in particular, but I’d rather not associate with it...so I left. Problem solved. This place should be fun and it usually is, people forget that too often though. Using curse words in posts directs readers into thinking one is not having fun. I’m always ribbing but if you take offense to it, I apologize and we can get back to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m too high all the time to be angry. You can label me what you want but I couldn’t care less how anyone’s post makes me feel emotionally because it doesn’t. Now, ignorant comments related to subjects that ‘hit close to home’ especially on a text chain is a different story. Not directed at you or anyone in particular, but I’d rather not associate with it...so I left. Problem solved. This place should be fun and it usually is, people forget that too often though. Using curse words in posts directs readers into thinking one is not having fun. I’m always ribbing but if you take offense to it, I apologize and we can get back to weather. Never ever take any post here personally just shoot back with a Tommy gun lol. People take shit the wrong way meh. Nice bowling ball lets hope its not Kevs 7/10 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Not sure why all the consternation. This is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Steve’s favorite SM platform starting to rev up: Isn't he like in Paupa New Guinea or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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