December 2019 Discussion

[weatherwiz]

On 12/13/2019 at 10:30 PM, OceanStWx said:

You know it must be a good December if we're talking about EMLs 

Functionally I don't think there is any difference between the source region. What there has been some research into is the role aerosols play in worsening tornado outbreaks (hypothesis is that adding aerosols warms the lower levels, lowers LCLs, and increases wind shear). It's definitely an emerging area of research, but I think the Mexican aspect loops in because EMLs originating in that area tend of have more aerosols from Central American slash and burn operations.

Thanks for the reply! 

I think it was after the May high risk issuance that didn't really pan out that I encountered some information on how EML origins from Mexico...couldn't remember what it was but the aerosols ring a bell. I will say...the hypothesis though is quite interesting. However, I think one of the bigger concerns in reading was smoke from wildfires. The aerosols aspect is very interesting though! 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Is Dr Dews.... CT Rain? There are some trolling warmista similarities I’m picking up here.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I didn't read anything by earthlight in detail but yeah, when the dust settles, a few snow/ice events peppered around robust cutters and a torching pac should just about sum it up this winter 

Dude its December 

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I didn't read anything by earthlight in detail but yeah, when the dust settles, a few snow/ice events peppered around robust cutters and a torching pac should just about sum it up this winter 

I'm just not in your camp. There is no Merritt in What your saying other than you do not like snow and cold. Torch for most of the Winter. I'm not sure you are correct.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Is Dr Dews.... CT Rain? There are some trolling warmista similarities I’m picking up here.

Lol, not even close.

It is a little concerning to see all of Canada torched but let’s see how it plays out. 

Edit: still plenty of polar air lurking.

[Torch Tiger]

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Dude its December 

yeah, like 45 days or so of winter remain. sweet

[weatherwiz]

In all fairness Dr. Dews isn't completely off here. Obviously things can change moving into January and February (as we've seen in the past). Yes it isn't officially winter yet and yes we have been active in the storms department with many places above-average in snowfall...but we've also had our share of cutters and warm events. The signals moving through the remainder of the month and to at least start January are incredibly mixed and can go either way. The PAC is quite volatile and is going to remain that way for some time. As long as this is the case, all possibilities from one side of the spectrum to the other are always going to be at play. We've been lucky to cash in on the potential's we have had, however, that doesn't mean that will continue to be the theme.

As great as it is to have "favorable patterns" for snow/winter events...it doesn't always guarantee them. With our region we can easily have a great pattern and miss out...we can have an awful pattern but if the cards align perfectly we can cash in on that brief opportunity. 

When you see models flip-flop like they have for the end of the month...that should be a huge flag and you can say all you want, analyze all you want, but until some sort of signal remains consistent...there is just no way of knowing which side will win. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Is Dr Dews.... CT Rain? There are some trolling warmista similarities I’m picking up here.

Just discussing the wx.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

In all fairness Dr. Dews isn't completely off here. Obviously things can change moving into January and February (as we've seen in the past). Yes it isn't officially winter yet and yes we have been active in the storms department with many places above-average in snowfall...but we've also had our share of cutters and warm events. The signals moving through the remainder of the month and to at least start January are incredibly mixed and can go either way. The PAC is quite volatile and is going to remain that way for some time. As long as this is the case, all possibilities from one side of the spectrum to the other are always going to be at play. We've been lucky to cash in on the potential's we have had, however, that doesn't mean that will continue to be the theme.

As great as it is to have "favorable patterns" for snow/winter events...it doesn't always guarantee them. With our region we can easily have a great pattern and miss out...we can have an awful pattern but if the cards align perfectly we can cash in on that brief opportunity. 

When you see models flip-flop like they have for the end of the month...that should be a huge flag and you can say all you want, analyze all you want, but until some sort of signal remains consistent...there is just no way of knowing which side will win. 

Mm... but saying there's only 45 days of winter remaining on December 15 or 16 of any given year is so egregiously asinine it immediately molts all credibility of the person that makes the statement/sentiment.   Personally, I don't care about the troll tactic - I don't actually take very much of who said what and why in here very seriously, and tend to ignore most of it because of it's intrinsically vapidity, and transparent cackling of the hoi polloi.  However, it looks odd for you personally, Wiz', to defend that person - at all - when you're posts are nut-to-butt right up against one another.  Just sayn' ... now you must know how defenders of Trump must feel.  That sort of 'embarrassing timing' has been a regular folly of his Presidential tragic comedy.

 

[Torch Tiger]

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... but saying there's only 45 days of winter remaining on December 15 or 16 of any given year is so egregiously asinine it immediately molts all credibility of the person that makes the statement/sentiment.   Personally, I don't care about the troll tactic - I don't actually take very much of who said what and why in here very seriously, and tend to ignore most of it because of it's intrinsically vapidity, and transparent cackling of the hoi polloi.  However, it looks odd for you personally, Wiz', to defend that person - at all - when you're posts are nut-to-butt right up against one another.  Just sayn' ... now you must know how defenders of Trump must feel.  That sort of 'embarrassing timing' has been a regular folly of his Presidential tragic comedy.

 

I took the 45 days of winter (or however it was phrased) as more of a tongue-in-cheek comment than in actual seriousness. The bolded is pretty funny...and probably spot on

But trolling or whatever aside...the premise of the thoughts aren't very unreasonable. I don't have a problem with Dr. Dews or his posting style (everyone has their own) and not saying I endorsed anything...just that it isn't totally unreasonable given the uncertainties for the second half of this month. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

You know you are trying a little too hard once you have to start referencing winter climo south of NYC to shorten the season.

 

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

We had a big March last year - like twenty plus I think. I’m 55 miles north east of the city

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

Drunk?

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You know you are trying a little too hard once you have to start referencing winter climo south of NYC to shorten the season.

 

I was talking to snow88 in NYC and the length of winter there..

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

Some of NYC biggest snow events are late Feb and Early March like last season.

On a positive note, epo is expected to go negative as well as the AO with a neutral NAO according to the GEFS. Yeah PNA is negative but that may mean more overrunning events.

NYC north is above average to date with a little more on the way.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

I was talking to snow88 in NYC and the length of winter there..

Let's just not give Dr. Dews the satisfaction of an answer anymore guys. He is obviously looking for attention. Merry christmas Dr Dews. May all your dreams come true. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Some of NYC biggest snow events are late Feb and Early March like last season.

On a positive note, epo is expected to go negative as well as the AO with a neutral NAO according to the GEFS. Yeah PNA is negative but that may mean more overrunning events.

NYC north is above average to date with a little more on the way.

Oh yeah, 4/1/97 was one of the better snows ever...along with 10/2011. It can snow outside of winter (usually surrounded by 40s, 50s, 60s). But generally by early-mid February the writing is on the wall for any type of sustained winter.

 

[butterfish55]

When you have to make a separate post to explain your original troll post you probably should take a break from the board

[Great Snow 1717]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Let's just not give Dr. Dews the satisfaction of an answer anymore guys. He is obviously looking for attention. Merry christmas Dr Dews. May all your dreams come true. 

Must make for quite the life when someone spends all day/night looking for information/maps/model runs in an attempt to upset people who like/love winter weather. 

[weatherwiz]

there could be some nasty snow squalls Wednesday. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

there could be some nasty snow squalls Wednesday. 

Don't be concerned, Dr Dolittle will find some model image that will show little in the way of any snow squalls. He's probably designing an image in his basement......well that's assuming he's finished decorating the palm trees in his yard...….

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Don't be concerned, Dr Dolittle will find some model image that will show little in the way of any snow squalls. He's probably designing an image in his basement......well that's assuming he's finished decorating the palm trees in his yard...….

I I could think of much more efficient use of his trolling time than invalidating a windex threat lol

[dmillz25]

38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

You couldn’t be more wrong

[A Moonlit Sky]

Gentlemen, there's a user ignore list and it's glorious.

Just a quick PSA.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

You couldn’t be more wrong

Almost a guarantee that NYC and south will be hit by an historic storm after mid Feb......

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I I could think of much more efficient use of his trolling time than invalidating a windex threat lol

I actually hope it outperforms this minor swfe 

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

by early-mid Feb. winter is pretty much history, NYC and especially south. 

In the 2010s?

March is when winter starts for NYC metro. The cold/snowy Nov & March has been one of the most consistent pattern couplets this decade. 

[Bostonseminole]

is the weekend storm gone? not much on the euro or gfs now.. sorry have not watched much this weekend.

[dryslot]

Dr dews does what he does best, Rattled a few cages.