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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Eps starting to catch on. 

It's interesting as an aside ... the GFS members have been theming that 22nd period of time for over a week's worth of cycles, in various complexions among the members along the way.  Not consistent at the detail level, no but give 'em a break. It's 300+ hours out. Plus, the fact that 2/3rds * thus the majority* carry the trough appeal on pretty much every run ( in the mean), I think they've earned the right to vary their individual solutions within a common theme.

One thing that sticks out for me is the Hadley Cell is beaten down ... perhaps only temporarily, but that's a big factor in getting to and ( eventual ) phased solution, ...should more phasing be in the cards.  Otherwise, we're prooobably not going get this one done with N/Stream alone given the progressive nature of the flow between the 45th and 65th latitudes around our side of the hemisphere ( that's A ) ...but the other aspect is that the NAO - I believe - isn't "really" negative in that time frame? I'm starting to strongly suspect it's just weighted down by a much more obvious negative Arctic Oscillation overlapping - have to remember that the AO and the NAO share domain space, and thus, can skew the other's true static characteristic.  Nooormally they run along similar out in time, but just not always.

Anyway, that doesn't mean that an intermediate midriff Canadian S/W can't time an ally-'oop with the TV and do the subsuming thing. The trick is, the heights in the deep S/SE need to relax for the TV S/W's identity to remain in tact. Otherwise, ..the fast flow that results from the compression will absorb the S/Stream short wave and that's bad.  The other option is that the flow indeed relaxes in the S, and the N/Stream just gets out of the way entirely...and the S/Stream wave just turns into a Miller A deal...  Few plausibilities on the table...

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This is also when the PAC starts to get a little more unfavorable and more progressive on some guidance. If you look at the 12z GEFS and 00z EPS, that's the farthest thing from a classic storm look. We do have higher heights to the north which can help transform an unfavorable pattern, but overall it's kind of ugly at 500. At least as depicted.

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man almost 100% chance White Xmas this year. Haven’t been able to say that this far out in awhile 

I just had an 17 inch snowfall vaporize in a day and a half followed by another 3 inches that is also long gone and your guaranteeing a white Christmas? :blink:

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