EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GFS has this as a more typical noreaster setup with the EURO a but wonkier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS has this as a more typical noreaster setup with the EURO a but wonkier. Gefs is also on board big time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is also on board big time Would love for the PNA to be more accommodating, and NAO to become more negative. I have no idea on the EPO front as the CPC site will not load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Eps starting to catch on. It's interesting as an aside ... the GFS members have been theming that 22nd period of time for over a week's worth of cycles, in various complexions among the members along the way. Not consistent at the detail level, no but give 'em a break. It's 300+ hours out. Plus, the fact that 2/3rds * thus the majority* carry the trough appeal on pretty much every run ( in the mean), I think they've earned the right to vary their individual solutions within a common theme. One thing that sticks out for me is the Hadley Cell is beaten down ... perhaps only temporarily, but that's a big factor in getting to and ( eventual ) phased solution, ...should more phasing be in the cards. Otherwise, we're prooobably not going get this one done with N/Stream alone given the progressive nature of the flow between the 45th and 65th latitudes around our side of the hemisphere ( that's A ) ...but the other aspect is that the NAO - I believe - isn't "really" negative in that time frame? I'm starting to strongly suspect it's just weighted down by a much more obvious negative Arctic Oscillation overlapping - have to remember that the AO and the NAO share domain space, and thus, can skew the other's true static characteristic. Nooormally they run along similar out in time, but just not always. Anyway, that doesn't mean that an intermediate midriff Canadian S/W can't time an ally-'oop with the TV and do the subsuming thing. The trick is, the heights in the deep S/SE need to relax for the TV S/W's identity to remain in tact. Otherwise, ..the fast flow that results from the compression will absorb the S/Stream short wave and that's bad. The other option is that the flow indeed relaxes in the S, and the N/Stream just gets out of the way entirely...and the S/Stream wave just turns into a Miller A deal... Few plausibilities on the table... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Negative EPO negative NAO negative AO negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Nice squally activity ushering in deep cold Wednesday afternoon this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice squally activity ushering in deep cold Wednesday afternoon this week. Yeah a day where Ginxy disrobes to NNE posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice squally activity ushering in deep cold Wednesday afternoon this week. A bit early to get specific....but some windex potential in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Been watching that ULL as it swings thru here weds it looks to set off some potent squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like the GFS op ain't biting next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 No help from the northern stream on that run, They remain independent features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the GFS op ain't biting next weekend. Not yet but that has the potential to be a huge storm! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Not yet but that has the potential to be a huge storm! And a potential to whiff followed by 45-50 christmas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Not yet but that has the potential to be a huge storm! 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And a potential to whiff followed by 45-50 christmas. coastalwx be like... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 LOL at the GFS with the storm next weekend. It brings it from the GA coast and proceeds to move it south toward the Carribean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: LOL at the GFS with the storm next weekend. It brings it from the GA coast and proceeds to move it south toward the Carribean. Some actually believe its output every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: coastalwx be like... That's the GFS. Break out the Santa Speedo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's the GFS. Break out the Santa Speedo. Got to dust it off from 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Got to dust it off from 2015. Should be similar. Maybe slightly tighter. A few wiggles and stretches of the fabric and we're good to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Man almost 100% chance White Xmas this year. Haven’t been able to say that this far out in awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 CMC was close to a monster.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Hawaiian shirts and Luau's for dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hawaiian shirts and Luau's for dinner. No escaping it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 festive times ahead, hopefully cherry blossoms bloom in NJ and DC for Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Nah...that's complete continuity -related bullshit on that GFS obviously... but go for it ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFS say don’t believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 This is also when the PAC starts to get a little more unfavorable and more progressive on some guidance. If you look at the 12z GEFS and 00z EPS, that's the farthest thing from a classic storm look. We do have higher heights to the north which can help transform an unfavorable pattern, but overall it's kind of ugly at 500. At least as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Zero worries 2nd half of month for snow fans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Did anyone else notice the Euro's weird little fella out there in that D7/8 coastal cyclone ? ...Like a convective feedback micro-cane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man almost 100% chance White Xmas this year. Haven’t been able to say that this far out in awhile I just had an 17 inch snowfall vaporize in a day and a half followed by another 3 inches that is also long gone and your guaranteeing a white Christmas? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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