Thunderblizzard Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Slow moving stemwinder. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Slow moving stemwinder. Wow! Best part...H5 closes off south of long island...mona lisa. The 10:1 chart will not do that banding justice. Little tucky, but clown range, anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Festivus miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 My model reading is pedestrian at best but for years I’ve been just using good old NCEP to get my GFS fix...... that piece of trash is so bad now I haven’t been on there in weeks.... just read you guys now.... so disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 This evolution is more realstic to me than prior versions because its less s stream and more n stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 It’s a little warm below 850 in many areas. Those snow algorithms at it again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 EPS mean doesn't seem as enthused, but some sort of a signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Eps starting to catch on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS mean doesn't seem as enthused, but some sort of a signal. Looks like we're in for some wild swings. PV streamer drifting across the country and it all depends on how the northern stream captures it. Could be a cutoff for Florida or Nova Scotia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Gefs has a big signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Looks like we're in for some wild swings. PV streamer drifting across the country and it all depends on how the northern stream captures it. Could be a cutoff for Florida or Nova Scotia. Might I ask a question....I see the word PV/PV streamer (used in your description) term used in here with this discussion over the last few days. If there hasn’t been a SSW event yet...why /how is the PV getting down into the U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Might I ask a question....I see the word PV/PV streamer (used in your description) term used in here with this discussion over the last few days. If there hasn’t been a SSW event yet...why /how is the PV getting down into the U.S.? Different PV. This is not the polar vortex, but potential vorticity. High potential voriticity induces cyclonic flow in the low levels, so can enhance low pressure systems. High potential vorticity is also typically associated with stratospheric air, so when people talk about trop folds these are big potential vorticity anomlies in the upper to mid levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Different PV. This is not the polar vortex, but potential vorticity. High potential voriticity induces cyclonic flow in the low levels, so can enhance low pressure systems. High potential vorticity is also typically associated with stratospheric air, so when people talk about trop folds these are big potential vorticity anomlies in the upper to mid levels of the atmosphere. Ahhh...thank you for that clarification. That makes more sense now. Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ahhh...thank you for that clarification. That makes more sense now. Appreciated. You can think of it as a strong s/w too. Usually they can be co-located together. I don't find PV to be a game changer, but it's just another cool way at viewing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can think of it as a strong s/w too. Usually they can be co-located together. I don't find PV to be a game changer, but it's just another cool way at viewing things. I find that it can highlight the more subtle waves better than traditional vorticity maps can. Especially warm season stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh boy...sound the alarms on the Euro next Sunday into Monday... We powder keg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I find that it can highlight the more subtle waves better than traditional vorticity maps can. Especially warm season stuff. I know sometimes for convection if you're looking for something subtle to get lift going, or in the tropics when the steering currents are tough to visualize, it helps. Any good sites for that? I usually have a couple of ones that I normally look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You can think of it as a strong s/w too. Usually they can be co-located together. I don't find PV to be a game changer, but it's just another cool way at viewing things. The strong shortwave idea maybe even makes more sense to me as an untrained/uneducated layman. So the PV(potential vorticity)perhaps can help strengthen the initial S/W even further?? Is this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: The strong shortwave idea maybe even makes more sense to me as an untrained/uneducated layman. So the PV(potential vorticity)perhaps can help strengthen the initial S/W even further?? Is this right? I only mentioned that because it can be confusing. Usually a strong s/w may have a high PV intrusion by nature. You can also get PV by strong latent heat from convection. If you were to look at a cross section from the infamous 12/9/05 storm, you had strong stratospheric intrusion of PV aloft and at the surface from latent heat. Without getting too complicated, both acted to lower heights ahead of it and induce rapid cyclogenesis. I'm definitely not well versed in the topic, but that's the basic idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I only mentioned that because it can be confusing. Usually a strong s/w may have a high PV intrusion by nature. You can also get PV by strong latent heat from convection. If you were to look at a cross section from the infamous 12/9/05 storm, you had strong stratospheric intrusion of PV aloft and at the surface from latent heat. Without getting too complicated, both acted to lower heights ahead of it and induce rapid cyclogenesis. I'm definitely not well versed in the topic, but that's the basic idea. Ok Good enough..thanks Scott. Definitely Makes for A lil better understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 hours ago, Thunderblizzard said: How crazy would that be.....some folks near 60" on the month (counting Tuesday and if I did my arithmetic right). Imagine the pack had we not evaporated the goods from our prior storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: How crazy would that be.....some folks near 60" on the month (counting Tuesday and if I did my arithmetic right). Imagine the pack had we not evaporated the goods from our prior storms. Yeah if that map verified, hubbdave would be around 60". ORH would be well into the 50-55" range. Always fun to dream. Long ways to go on next weekend's threat though. At least we've got it being picked up across multiple sources of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Here is the mid level weenie band that Will is referring to, which is getting into my area on the 06z run (left) vs 00z (right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if that map verified, hubbdave would be around 60". ORH would be well into the 50-55" range. Always fun to dream. Long ways to go on next weekend's threat though. At least we've got it being picked up across multiple sources of guidance. You mean it's too soon to lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: How crazy would that be.....some folks near 60" on the month (counting Tuesday and if I did my arithmetic right). Imagine the pack had we not evaporated the goods from our prior storms. Map is BS.....some rain and sleet involved east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Map is BS.....some rain and sleet involved east. That's way more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's way more realistic. F5Weather doesn't incorporate sleet into the snowfall algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: F5Weather doesn't incorporate sleet into the snowfall algorithm. It doesn't look like a sleet setup, it looks more realistic based on 925mb temps. The storm sort of wraps in some warmer air, before it washes out and cools off in the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It doesn't look like a sleet setup, it looks more realistic based on 925mb temps. The storm sort of wraps in some warmer air, before it washes out and cools off in the comma head. Yea, I didn't bother analyzing day 7-8 soundings, but that vendor reflects thermals more accurately in snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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