Hazey Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Could be some norlun action early next week as the pv drops in.Yup. There’s some sneaky potential with that. Small feature so track will be critical. Kinda half watching it for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Yup. There’s some sneaky potential with that. Small feature so track will be critical. Kinda half watching it for my hood. Yeah. Big changes on the ecmwf that run. I hope it trends a touch less blocked for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Close on euro. Pretty much all guidance hinting at something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I’d still hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Special month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Pretty precarious trend on OP Euro...12z left, 00z Right. Huge sensible weather implications...not a fan of OP at this range, but 12z ens not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Could be some norlun action early next week as the pv drops in. I saw that too, Nick... and was also wondering, 'why stop there' Still talking enough time for that to keep digging - that's be almost understandable given how things have been working out - heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Note the increased aggression in the NAO regions; this trend continues, I suspect we are going to have a very merry holiday period... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 GFS saw this potential leading into the holiday a couple days ago...of course it lost it a run or two later, but it sniffed it(this idea) earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Note the increased aggression in the NAO regions; this trend continues, I suspect we are going to have a very merry holiday period... Merry Suppression season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Special month If everything works out many of us will have gotten half or more of our season average in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 hours ago, binbisso said: How so? Blue Wave and isotherm are on the warm train. isotherm called for +1 to 2 temperature departures for December. We are -2.3 so far this month with the bitter cold air mass coming Wednesday night through next Saturday. We're probably going to be -3 or better by the 21st not going to make that up the last 10 days. Also they're probably spin it because most of the country is warm except for our area but they specifically forecast for our area. Also if we get a few inches of snow on Monday will be very close to normal for December with two weeks to go. I will add that isotherm North Atlantic forecast is going to bust if guidance is correct with the Nao and ao. We will have had two episodes of negative Nao and the AO supposedly going to tank the last half of the month. His forecast called for no blocking in the Atlantic for December. And bluewaves mjo forecast is incorrect as it's going to probably miss the warm phases and come out in the cold of phases later this month. If I'm not mistaken he was calling for the same mjo propagation as last year Incorrect. This is a misinterpretation of my forecast. First, I do forecast for the entire nation, but provide specific departure values for the NYC metro region. Both the AO and NAO have been positive to strongly positive so far this month, pursuant to the forecast. See CPC data. The rest of your first paragraph is speculation with respect to the remainder of the month. Temperature departures for December are presently normal to warmer than normal in the US, except for New England; and the jury is still out re the final numbers. The overall storm track so far has been similar to last year, favoring the interior Northeast for snowfalls, and coastal rain events particularly NYC southward. @bluewave has also been correct on this matter, to date. I realize that people become quite emotional regarding snowfall, but at the very least, wait until the verification period is over before impugning others' forecasts, and exercise greater care in interpreting those forecasts. 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: False. Isotherm had a benign, mild month. Not entirely correct, and there are material omissions here. I called for aperiodic injection of polar/arctic air into the Rockies-Plains-MW c/o poleward NPAC ridging, and near normal snowfall in NNE. The nation has been milder than normal to date, save for New England. It remains to be seen how the month finishes, temperature and NAO/AO wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Incorrect. This is a misinterpretation of my forecast. First, I do forecast for the entire nation, but provide specific departure values for the NYC metro region. Both the AO and NAO have been positive to strongly positive so far this month, pursuant to the forecast. See CPC data. The rest of your first paragraph is speculation with respect to the remainder of the month. Temperature departures for December are presently normal to warmer than normal in the US, except for New England; and the jury is still out re the final numbers. The overall storm track so far has been similar to last year, favoring the interior Northeast for snowfalls, and coastal rain events particularly NYC southward. @bluewave has also been correct on this matter, to date. I realize that people become quite emotional regarding snowfall, but at the very least, wait until the verification period is over before impugning others' forecasts, and exercise greater care in interpreting those forecasts. Not entirely correct, and there are material omissions here. I called for aperiodic injection of polar/arctic air into the Rockies-Plains-MW c/o poleward NPAC ridging, and near normal snowfall in NNE. The nation has been milder than normal to date, save for New England. It remains to be seen how the month finishes, temperature and NAO/AO wise. Yes, but I am only concerned with the northeast, so you need to understand the context. The storm track has favored the interior, but sne has been skunking NNE. ...inverse if last season's fortunes...fair? Perhaps not, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Note the increased aggression in the NAO regions; this trend continues, I suspect we are going to have a very merry holiday period... Merry Suppression season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, but I am only concerned with the northeast, so you need to understand the context. Yes - and the month has not yet finished. We'll see how it looks in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Merry Suppression season? PAC still meh so not sure suppression is a worry Christmas and beyond. That storm on 22 or whenever may be offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Yes - and the month has not yet finished. We'll see how it looks in two weeks. Yes, absolutely. But the notion that substantial negative departures will be eradicated by the new year is dubious, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Merry Suppression season? I just meant that some blocking may help promote more phasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, absolutely. But the notion that substantial negative departures will be eradicated by the new year is dubious, at best. It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Isotherm said: It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity. Its not going to remain near neutral for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, Isotherm said: It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity. The ASOS at Logan is also running warm and it’s documented. They’re about -2.0 . It’s a cold , snowy month north of your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Yeah you can toss BOS into trash heap. What's PVD running? -3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 And yes BOS had a week with 3 50+ days. It’s going to be cold Monday onwards with some days upwards of 10+ subnormal possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Isotherm said: I would be interested in reading the documentation if you have that. Why hasn't the NWS rectified those issues yet, if they do indeed exist? Because the equipment apparently is functioning per calibration but the placement near active runways appears to add temperature in many conditions. I mean when the whole area is snowing beautiful dendrites including Logan but they pop up with 33-34 when every nearby station is 2-3 lower it’s a big flag. At least they appear to have fixed the snow measuring this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Because the equipment apparently is functioning per calibration but the placement near active runways appears to add temperature in many conditions. I mean when the whole area is snowing beautiful dendrites including Logan but they pop up with 33-34 when every nearby station is 2-3 lower it’s a big flag. At least they appear to have fixed the snow measuring this year. Yeah pretty sure something happened with the siting since NWS checked the ASOS. It's beyond obvious on the MADIS graph in mid-2018. MADIS is pretty lenient and they've been failing Logan on the temp graph recently from time to time. That's how you know it's really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah pretty sure something happened with the siting since NWS checked the ASOS. It's beyond obvious on the MADIS graph in mid-2018. MADIS is pretty lenient and they've been failing Logan on the temp graph recently from time to time. That's how you know it's really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Looks like there's some MADIS analysis errors over the past couple months so don't read too much into those crazy outlier values on the far right side. The point is the general trend since early 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Lol congrats on the 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Oh boy...sound the alarms on the Euro next Sunday into Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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