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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Could be some norlun action early next week as the pv drops in.

I saw that too, Nick... and was also wondering, 'why stop there'

Still talking enough time for that to keep digging - that's be almost understandable given how things have been working out - heh.

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3 hours ago, binbisso said:

How so? Blue Wave and isotherm are on the warm train. isotherm called for +1 to 2 temperature departures for December. We are -2.3 so far this month with the bitter cold air mass coming Wednesday night through next Saturday. We're probably going to be -3 or better by the 21st not going to make that up the last 10 days. Also they're probably spin it because most of the country is warm except for our area but they specifically forecast for our area. Also if we get a few inches of snow on Monday will be very close to normal for December with two weeks to go.

I will add that isotherm North Atlantic forecast is going to bust if guidance is correct with the Nao and ao. We will have had two episodes of negative Nao and the AO supposedly going to tank the last half of the month. His forecast called for no blocking in the Atlantic for December. And bluewaves mjo forecast is incorrect as it's going to probably miss the warm phases and come out in the cold of phases later this month. If I'm not mistaken he was calling for the same mjo propagation as last year

 

Incorrect. This is a misinterpretation of my forecast. First, I do forecast for the entire nation, but provide specific departure values for the NYC metro region. Both the AO and NAO have been positive to strongly positive so far this month, pursuant to the forecast. See CPC data. The rest of your first paragraph is speculation with respect to the remainder of the month. Temperature departures for December are presently normal to warmer than normal in the US, except for New England; and the jury is still out re the final numbers. The overall storm track so far has been similar to last year, favoring the interior Northeast for snowfalls, and coastal rain events particularly NYC southward. @bluewave has also been correct on this matter, to date.

I realize that people become quite emotional regarding snowfall, but at the very least, wait until the verification period is over before impugning others' forecasts, and exercise greater care in interpreting those forecasts.

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False.

Isotherm had a benign, mild month.

 

 

Not entirely correct, and there are material omissions here.  I called for aperiodic injection of polar/arctic air into the Rockies-Plains-MW c/o poleward NPAC ridging, and near normal snowfall in NNE. The nation has been milder than normal to date, save for New England. It remains to be seen how the month finishes, temperature and NAO/AO wise.

 

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2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Incorrect. This is a misinterpretation of my forecast. First, I do forecast for the entire nation, but provide specific departure values for the NYC metro region. Both the AO and NAO have been positive to strongly positive so far this month, pursuant to the forecast. See CPC data. The rest of your first paragraph is speculation with respect to the remainder of the month. Temperature departures for December are presently normal to warmer than normal in the US, except for New England; and the jury is still out re the final numbers. The overall storm track so far has been similar to last year, favoring the interior Northeast for snowfalls, and coastal rain events particularly NYC southward. @bluewave has also been correct on this matter, to date.

I realize that people become quite emotional regarding snowfall, but at the very least, wait until the verification period is over before impugning others' forecasts, and exercise greater care in interpreting those forecasts.

 

 

Not entirely correct, and there are material omissions here.  I called for aperiodic injection of polar/arctic air into the Rockies-Plains-MW c/o poleward NPAC ridging, and near normal snowfall in NNE. The nation has been milder than normal to date, save for New England. It remains to be seen how the month finishes, temperature and NAO/AO wise.

 

Yes, but I am only concerned with the northeast, so you need to understand the context. The storm track has favored the interior, but sne has been skunking NNE. ...inverse if last season's fortunes...fair? Perhaps not, but it is what it is.

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40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, absolutely. But the notion that substantial negative departures will be eradicated by the new year is dubious, at best.

 

It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity.

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7 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity.

Its not going to remain near neutral for long.

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15 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

It's a steeper climb for interior New England, but for coastal stations, like BOS, they're at -1.1 for the month, without accounting for today's 60F. So they've essentially neutralized, with half-month ahead. The departure distribution again evinces the storm track propensity.

The ASOS at Logan is also running warm and it’s documented. They’re about -2.0 . It’s a cold , snowy month north of your area 

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5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

I would be interested in reading the documentation if you have that. Why hasn't the NWS rectified those issues yet, if they do indeed exist? 

Because the equipment apparently is functioning per calibration but the placement near active runways appears to add temperature in many conditions.  I mean when the whole area is snowing beautiful dendrites including Logan but they pop up with 33-34 when every nearby station is 2-3 lower it’s a big flag.  At least they appear to have fixed the snow measuring this year.

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Because the equipment apparently is functioning per calibration but the placement near active runways appears to add temperature in many conditions.  I mean when the whole area is snowing beautiful dendrites including Logan but they pop up with 33-34 when every nearby station is 2-3 lower it’s a big flag.  At least they appear to have fixed the snow measuring this year.

Yeah pretty sure something happened with the siting since NWS checked the ASOS.

It's beyond obvious on the MADIS graph in mid-2018. MADIS is pretty lenient and they've been failing Logan on the temp graph recently from time to time. That's how you know it's really bad. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah pretty sure something happened with the siting since NWS checked the ASOS.

It's beyond obvious on the MADIS graph in mid-2018. MADIS is pretty lenient and they've been failing Logan on the temp graph recently from time to time. That's how you know it's really bad. 

image.png

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