weathafella Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 At a holiday party-crown baby! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 18z Euro looked a little better on the front end thump. Quite cold at the surface even after the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Euro looked a little better on the front end thump. Quite cold at the surface even after the flip. Somebody in NE Mass near the NH border gets the shaft, at least the end of it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Not a betting man here. But looking at things looks like the Pna isn't so negative more like neutral and the EPO is somewhat positive going though into neutral to negative. NAO and AO going sharply negative. Last year at this time it was very different. I know some are saying that we are heading into a super torch for Christmas. I think it's possible that the Euro model is not seeing the blocking that the gfs and other models are seeing. The Euro has been performing very badly the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: The nogaps navgem whatever they’re calling it theses days is like the global brother of the RPM, deep thunder is the red headed step child Curious, how has Deep Thunder performed so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Somebody in NE Mass near the NH border gets the shaft, at least the end of it Looks like OKPowdah (Sam) drew that up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved. Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved. Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip. Region wide 2-6" seems like a good bet right now, from Canada to the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved. Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip. 2 to 4 one bite everyone knows the rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Where's @OceanStWx I actually don't know a whole lot about Mexican EML's but I think they're different than EML's originated in the southwest U.S. Obviously the processes are the same but I wonder what the differences are between Mexican EML and southwest US EML. You know it must be a good December if we're talking about EMLs Functionally I don't think there is any difference between the source region. What there has been some research into is the role aerosols play in worsening tornado outbreaks (hypothesis is that adding aerosols warms the lower levels, lowers LCLs, and increases wind shear). It's definitely an emerging area of research, but I think the Mexican aspect loops in because EMLs originating in that area tend of have more aerosols from Central American slash and burn operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Is it possible the Cape is in for a big blow this afternoon? Seems like a pretty meh advisory for 50-55 knots 500 ft off the deck at CHH. There's a nice surge from the warm front this afternoon too. I think I'm taking the over on 55 mph wind gusts for the Cape/Islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Is it possible the Cape is in for a big blow this afternoon? Seems like a pretty meh advisory for 50-55 knots 500 ft off the deck at CHH. There's a nice surge from the warm front this afternoon too. I think I'm taking the over on 55 mph wind gusts for the Cape/Islands. Hayden's on it, high wind warnings for the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Will someone with a hot hand take the honors of starting a thread for the Monday/Tues system? 41*, 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Will someone with a hot hand take the honors of starting a thread for the Monday/Tues system? 41*, 1.1" Whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whoosh LOL--I looked and didn't see it. It was too far down the list. I'd have thought it would be full of posts already. Has next weekend's system vanished? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 00z euro looked colder for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 00z euro looked colder for Tuesday. Alot colder. Even down my way. 12k Nam is also further south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 There’s a thread . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Alot colder. Even down my way. 12k Nam is also further south and colder Tossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro op says Merry Torchmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro op says Merry Torchmas. Scott, just say that after xmas we reload with colder air, nothing worse then this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 EPS laughs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6z Euro with 2 surges. Snow map looks pretty good with probably another .2 sleet freezing rain and rain SE. Nice fronto thump NE Mass. 2 to 4 lollipop to 6 everyone knows the rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 I hope RIC hits 80 for the Holidays Looks pretty seasonable in the interim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, 512high said: Scott, just say that after xmas we reload with colder air, nothing worse then this crap Probably not until January. That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold or wintry, but the Pacific is not that good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS laughs Not really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro with 2 surges. Snow map looks pretty good with probably another .2 sleet freezing rain and rain SE. Nice fronto thump NE Mass. 2 to 4 lollipop to 6 everyone knows the rules lol to be gone days later, but i would take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro with 2 surges. Snow map looks pretty good with probably another .2 sleet freezing rain and rain SE. Nice fronto thump NE Mass. 2 to 4 lollipop to 6 everyone knows the rules how much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not really Keeps New England out of the warmth. Stop worrying. The pig didn’t happen. We good . You’ve got 512 thinking some massive torch is coming after it snows next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: how much ice? Probably. .2? Pretty weak. Only gets above freezing from me to Boston SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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